To The Moon

$MARA Holdings(MARA)$ is scheduled to report its Q1 2025 financial results and host a conference call on Thursday, 08 May 2025, after the market closes (5:00 p.m. Eastern Time / 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time).

Revenue: Expected to be around $221.2 million to $221.7 million. This would represent a significant year-over-year increase of roughly 34%.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Estimates vary somewhat. Different sources report consensus forecasts ranging from approximately $-0.01 per share to $-0.68 per share. For comparison, MARA reported an EPS of $-0.06 in Q1 2024. Most estimates suggest a larger loss per share compared to the same quarter last year, despite the expected rise in revenue.

Estimate Revisions: Some sources note that consensus EPS estimates have seen downward revisions recently, while others like Zacks report an upward revision in their specific consensus over the last 30 days and a positive "Earnings ESP" (Expected Surprise Prediction), suggesting a potential beat relative to their estimate.

Marathon Digital (MARA) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Gain 12.85%

MARA had a positive earnings call on 26 Feb 2025 which saw its share price gain 12.85% since.

The earnings call reflects a strong performance with significant revenue and net income growth, driven by strategic energy integration and AI development plans. However, challenges related to Bitcoin market volatility, competition, and regulatory landscape pose ongoing risks.

Marathon Digital (MARA) Guidance

During MARA's Q4 2024 earnings call, the company announced record high revenues and net income, with revenue increasing by 37% to $214.4 million in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, and net income surging by 248% to $528.3 million. For the full year 2024, revenues grew 69% to $656.4 million, while net income increased by 107% to $541 million. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 reached $794.4 million, up from $259 million in Q4 2023, and full-year adjusted EBITDA was reported at $1.2 billion.

MARA's direct energy cost per Bitcoin for 2024 was $28,801, with a cost per kilowatt-hour of $0.039 at their own sites. The company also expanded its energy capacity by 300%, increasing its portfolio from 0.5 gigawatts to 1.7 gigawatts, and emphasized its transformation into a vertically integrated energy and technology solutions provider. Looking ahead, MARA plans to focus on AI opportunities and expects to continue reducing costs by owning and generating its own power, targeting a near-zero cost of energy.

Key Factors Influencing MARA Potential Performance

MARA reported record high revenues, net income, and adjusted EBITDA for Q4 and full year 2024. Revenue increased 37% to $214.4 million in Q4 2024 from $156.8 million in Q4 2023. For 2024, revenues grew 69% to $656.4 million from $387.5 million in 2023. Net income increased 248% to $528.3 million in Q4 2024 from $151.8 million in Q4 2023.

1. Bitcoin Price Dynamics:

Primary Driver: MARA’s revenue is heavily tied to Bitcoin’s price, which is volatile and influenced by macroeconomic factors (e.g., inflation, institutional adoption, regulatory shifts). A bullish BTC price in 2025 would boost earnings, while a downturn could pressure margins.

At time of writing, Bitcoin price have crossed 96K, and it look poised to create another new high. Bitcoin's price has been affected by a risk-off trade environment, correlated with equities, and influenced by macroeconomic factors like recessionary signals and high consumer prices. This volatility poses challenges to profitability and strategic planning.

2. Mining Difficulty & Network Competition:

Increasing mining difficulty (driven by more participants or upgraded hardware) could reduce MARA’s BTC output. The company’s ability to scale its hash rate and deploy efficient miners (e.g., Bitmain S19 XP) will be critical to maintaining profitability.

MARA is focusing on developing AI technology and solutions, planning to deploy 30 megawatts of inference AI to compute using liquid cooling technology. The company is investing in R&D to establish a presence in AI markets, creating long-term revenue opportunities.

3. Energy Costs & Operational Efficiency:

Energy expenses (a major cost for miners) depend on geographic strategy and power agreements. Renewable energy adoption or partnerships could mitigate risks. Operational uptime and fleet efficiency will also impact margins.

MARA transitioned into a vertically integrated energy and digital infrastructure company by acquiring five data centers, increasing owned capacity to approximately 70%. Energy costs per kilowatt-hour were reduced to $0.039, and cost of revenue per petahash per day improved by 5% this quarter and 17% for the full year.

4. Halving Impact (April 2024):

The 2024 Bitcoin halving will cut block rewards by 50%, reducing daily BTC issuance. Historically, halvings have preceded price rallies, but if BTC doesn’t appreciate sufficiently, MARA’s revenue could decline without cost-cutting measures.

5. Regulatory Environment:

Regulatory clarity (or crackdowns) in key markets (e.g., U.S., EU) on energy usage, taxation, or crypto operations could affect operations. MARA’s compliance and geographic diversification will matter.

Increasing competition in the crypto mining sector and potential regulatory changes in the US and abroad present challenges. The company needs to navigate these issues to sustain profitability and ensure long-term growth.

6. Financial Health & Strategy:

Balance Sheet: Debt levels, liquidity, and BTC holdings (HODL vs. sell strategy) influence resilience. A strong cash position would help navigate volatility.

Growth Plans: Expansion in hash rate capacity and strategic acquisitions could drive growth, but capital expenditures need to align with BTC price trends.

7. Market Sentiment & Competition:

MARA’s performance relative to peers (e.g., Riot Platforms, CleanSpark) in hash rate growth and cost efficiency will affect investor sentiment. Market share gains could signal strength.

Marathon Digital (MARA) Price Target

Based on 12 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Marathon Digital Holdings in the last 3 months. The average price target is $21.71 with a high forecast of $30.00 and a low forecast of $13.00. The average price target represents a 54.51% change from the last price of $13.37.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

As we can see how MARA share price have moved in relation to Bitcoin, there have been signs of increased momentum from the RSI, and there is also attempt by the bulls to build a daily uptrend continuation.

But looks like there is resistance from investors as some are selling off to take profit causing a sideway trade along the 50-day period, MARA need to have a strong momentum with Bitcoin price rally getting stronger, them we could see a potential daily uptrend.

I will be watching to see if I can add more MARA shares if there is any slight correction as other investors consider taking profits ahead of its Q1 earnings.

We are seeing an increase in the short interest, which might mean investors are planning to take profits if there is a significant price increase in MARA, there is potential of share price increase as Bitcoin price looks to have gain momentum for a new high, I am expecting Bitcoin to cross $97,000 by next week before MARA earnings.

Summary

Analysts anticipate strong revenue growth for MARA in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, but also expect the company to report a net loss per share, potentially wider than the loss reported a year ago.

So we can see that MARA earnings might hinge on Bitcoin’s price trajectory post-halving, operational execution, and broader market conditions. We as investors should monitor quarterly updates on hash rate growth, energy strategies, and BTC reserve management.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think MARA could still gains despite net loss per share because of strong Bitcoin prices.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.