To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  

$S&P 500(.SPX)$  

Not an easy question to answer, but here are my thoughts:

📌 1. May CPI Preview & Market Stakes

Consensus estimates expect +0.2% MoM headline CPI and +0.3% core CPI (~2.5% YoY) .

Why it matters: A hotter print around 2.5–2.9% core could delay Fed rate cuts beyond September, potentially knocking SPY off its current pace.

🏛️ 2. US–China Trade Talks: A Tenuous Boost

Recent U.S.–China meetings in London have lifted stocks—SPY is now <2% from all-time highs after a 21% bounce from April lows .

But details remain vague on rare earths & tech exports; markets are optimistic but cautious .

📈 3. Technical Set-up: Can SPY Extend Its Rally?

Today's +0.5% gain keeps SPY in a bullish trend, supported by both trade optimism and dovish Fed hopes .

If tonight's CPI is benign or lower, SPY could hold above 605–610, eyeing all-time highs even before Fed meets mid-June.

Hot inflation? That puts SPY at risk of a 2–3% pullback into the 590–595 range.

🔮 4. Market Scenarios & Trade Blueprint

Scenario Catalyst SPY Outlook

Bullish CPI tame + trade progress 605–620

Neutral CPI meets expectations 600–605

Bearish CPI surprise + tariff flare-up 580–590

💼 Trade Strategy

✅ Bullish approach: Maintain long ETFs with tight stop below 600; aim for 620.

⚠️ Hedged play: Buy put spreads under 600 ($590–595), sized to 75% of longs for protection.

🔍 Watch for: bond yields, 30‑year auction, and fresh China trade headlines into next week.

🎯 Final Take

SPY's winning streak is poised to continue—but only if CPI stays cool AND trade buzz sustains. A perfect exit would be around 610–620 before inflation or trade disappointments.

Trade wisely, comrades!