To The Moon

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 16Jun25

S&P 500 chart on 15Jun25

Technical observations:

• MACD - a top crossover is completed, and this suggests a downtrend is coming. Ranging sideways can be a possible scenario, too.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a trend reversal is coming.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• The CMF is positive at 0.18, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods.

The daily interval is showing a “Strong Buy" for the S&P 500 index. 16 indicators are showing a “Buy” rating, and 4 indicators show a “Sell” rating.

Here are the recent candlestick patterns.

Outlook and Implications

• Short-Term Outlook: The S&P 500 appears to be in a short-term consolidation phase. The Morning Doji Star and Morning Star from May 25 supported the prior rally, but the current drop suggests a pause. The price could offer a potential buying opportunity if bullish momentum resumes. Watch for a new bullish pattern or increased volume to confirm a continuation.

• Long-Term Outlook: The broader trend remains bullish, with the S&P 500 maintaining key support levels and having established a new high. The recent pullback is likely a normal correction within a strong uptrend, with potential to retest 6,000 or push toward 6,100 if buying pressure returns.

• Actionable Insight: Traders should monitor for a bounce from current levels, providing a safe entry point for a move back toward 6,000. If the price breaks below the 200 MA with high volume, it could signal a deeper correction toward the 50 MA from the June 2 analysis. Check volume and MACD (which showed divergence on June 2) for confirmation of the next move.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bullish long-term trend with a short-term consolidation, indicating the S&P 500 may be taking a breather after its recent rally before potentially resuming its upward trajectory.

With the above technical analysis and candlestick patterns, I expect a potential downtrend in the coming days.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$