Israel-Iran Tension Brewing: Check Out These Oil Stocks
On June 13, due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, $WTI Crude Oil - main 2508(CLmain)$ surged 6.27%, reaching an intraday high of $77.62.
However, oil prices plummeted sharply, reversing earlier gains. Previously booming energy stocks also broadly declined.
Trump stated that Iran is facing numerous difficulties. He mentioned that now Iran has proactively reached out to the U.S., but “it's too late.” He also declared that “Iran has absolutely no defensive capabilities.”
How significant is the impact of the Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict on oil?
Iran produces approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, ranking third among OPEC+ member countries, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Iran's key oil export hub, Kharg Island, is still operating normally. Since there hasn't been a significant disruption in global oil supply, crude oil has struggled to break above the $80 mark.
Currently, there are two major risks that could lead to a drop in oil supply:
Kharg Island being damaged, which would drastically reduce Iran's oil exports — a scenario with a relatively high likelihood.
Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is a much less likely and far more extreme move.
Trump calls on Iran to surrender: could the situation spiral out of control?
Earlier Tuesday, Trump posted on social media claiming:
“We now have total control of Iranian airspace.”
Later that day, Trump held a high-level war room meeting with his national security team to discuss Iran. The meeting lasted over an hour. While U.S. officials said no final decision was made on the Israel-Iran issue, sources indicated Trump is increasingly leaning toward striking Iran's nuclear facilities rather than pursuing a diplomatic resolution.
Before market open, Iran responded that it would not surrender.
Will oil prices break above $80? Would you buy oil ETFs or oil stocks?
$ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil(UCO)$ is trading at $27.47, up 35.65% in June, with an AUM of $447.98 million USD.
$United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ is priced at $82.30, with a 22.56% gain this month and an AUM of $1.15 billion USD.
$Invesco DB Oil Fund(DBO)$ is currently at $14.69, up 18.47% in June, and manages $229.85 million USD in assets.
$Occidental(OXY)$ is trading at $45.98, showing a 12.75% performance in June, with a market cap of $45.25 billion USD.
$Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ is at $114.00, with a 11.44% gain this month and a market capitalization of $492.81 billion USD.
$SHELL PLC SPON ADS EACH REPR 2 ORD SHS(SHEL)$ trades at $72.33, up 9.23% in June, with a market cap of $213.30 billion USD.
$Total SA(TTE)$ is priced at $63.94, posting an 8.96% gain in June, and has a market cap of $141.43 billion USD.
$Chevron(CVX)$ is trading at $148.85, up 8.89% in June, with a market capitalization of $257.84 billion USD.
Is Trump just bluffing, or is military action on the table?
Except for oil, what other mining stocks are you watching?
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Trump's - he flips prata... can't take his words seriously [What] [What] [What] better keep to those stocks less volatile so keep sleep well at night [Smile] [Smile] [Smile]
Iran produces approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, ranking third among OPEC+ member countries, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Iran's key oil export hub, Kharg Island, is still operating normally. Since there hasn't been a significant disruption in global oil supply, crude oil has struggled to break above the $80 mark.
Is Trump just bluffing, or is military action on the table?
Except for oil, what other mining stocks are you watching?
REWARDS
All valid comments will receive 5 Tiger Coins
The first 10 and last 10 valid comments will receive an additional 10 Tiger Coins
We never know what trump thinks but for sure, the world does not want Iran to have nuclear. So, it depends on whether trump thinks this is in the US’ interests to put a stop to this via diplomatic measures, sanctions or a straight on war. If war does happen, then oil prices will spike, especially if Saudi and iraq as well as the other countries are unable to keep up with supply. If the rest of the countries can pick up with the supply and there are no supply chain disruptions, oil prices should drop again.
The situation can turn anyway I feel that buying any oil and mining stocks at the current already higher prices is just pure speculation.
Based on the conflict’s implications, the following sectors and assets may offer opportunities. Investors should conduct thorough due diligence and consider consulting a financial advisor.
1. Energy Sector
Why? Rising oil prices benefit producers, refiners, and energy service providers. Even if prices stabilize, volatility could support energy stocks.
Stocks:
Chevron (CVX): A diversified U.S. oil major with strong upstream exposure, benefiting from price spikes. It saw gains during the initial surge.
ExxonMobil (XOM): Well-positioned for higher oil prices, with global operations and a robust balance sheet.
Shell (SHEL): A global energy company with exposure to oil and gas, likely to benefit from regional tensions.
ETFs:
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE): Tracks U.S. energy giants like Chevron and ExxonMobil. Expense ratio: 0.09%.
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如果冲突继续升级，不止油价会上涨，资源股整体都有可能受益，尤其是那些与战争、能源自主、安全相关的矿产资源。除了石油，我现在特别关注：
1. 铜矿股：像Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）或中国的江西铜业（0358.HK）。一方面，军工制造和能源基础建设对铜的需求巨大；另一方面，电动车、绿能也是持续增长的赛道。
2. 铀矿股：如Cameco（CCJ）或Paladin Energy（PDN.AX）。全球在能源安全背景下重新考虑核能，尤其地缘冲突越频繁，核能就越容易被接受。
3. 锂矿股：虽然短期调整，但长期逻辑仍在，尤其是中美都要抓住新能源自主化命脉时。
总结：军事威慑不代表市场不能冷静应对，但资源股，是我在动荡中最愿意抱着的一类资产。
Occidental Petroleum $Occidental(OXY)$ is a great stock to invest. OXY is currently trading at USD 45.35, up 2% in the past 5 days and 7% in 1 month. Analysts are forecasting a potential rise to USD 58.33 by July, a 28% gain from current level.
As tensions threaten oil supply routes especially Straits of Hormuz, OXY's upstream operations and US based assets become more attractive to investors seeking stability.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has maintained a significant stake in OXY, signaling long term institutional confidence.
With a market cap of USD 45 billion, a P/E ratio of under 20 and improving cash flow, OXY is financially solid and well positioned to benefit from higher crude prices. OXY also pays great dividends (2.12% yield)
OXY is a great smart play at this time.
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I am also watching Uranium