To The Moon

SU7 was launched and Xiaomi soared more than 4 times! YU7 is expected to drive the stock up, but will the increase be that significant?

After the launch of YU7, 289,000 units were pre-ordered within an hour. The price is indeed quite attractive. It seems that the pressure on other electric vehicle manufacturers has increased.

• Xiaomi SU7 was officially launched on March 28, 2024. At that time, the stock price of Xiaomi Group-W (01810) was around HK$14, and then it soared straight up to a peak of HK$59, with an increase of over 400% during this period.

• Xiaomi YU7 was launched on May 22, 2025. The stock price was at HK$53 at that time. After the launch, it fluctuated until it started to break through last week. Following yesterday's launch event, the stock price rose by 4%, reaching a new high. So far this year, the increase in Xiaomi's Hong Kong stock has exceeded 72%.

According to the latest information, here are the target price expectations from different institutions for Xiaomi Group:

• $CICC(03908)$ : Maintains the "outperform" rating for Xiaomi Group-W and raises the target price to HK$76.9.

• $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ : Raises the target price for Xiaomi to HK$69.

• $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ : Gives Xiaomi a target price of HK$62.

• Daiwa: Raises the target price for Xiaomi from HK$70 to HK$78.

• $Citigroup(C)$ : Gives Xiaomi a target price of HK$73.5.

• BOCI (Bank of China International): Raises the target price for Xiaomi from HK$73 to HK$75.25.

Last night, Xiaomi Group ADR (XIACY) closed with a gain of 9.85%, and the increase so far this year has been 80.6%.

In the short term, YU7 is expected to drive Xiaomi's further development, just like SU7 did. However, whether it can reach the same or even higher level is still uncertain. Here is a detailed analysis:

Positive Factors:

• Product Performance and Configuration Advantages: Xiaomi YU7 is positioned as a mid-large SUV. It features a dual-motor all-wheel drive system with an output power of 508kW, a CLTC range of 835 kilometers, and an 800V high-voltage fast-charging system that can replenish 280 kilometers in just 10 minutes, effectively alleviating users' "range anxiety." The entire series comes standard with Hesai AT128 lidar and NVIDIA ThorU chips, enabling mapless urban navigation functions, with hardware configurations surpassing those of its peers. The 3-meter wheelbase provides ample interior space, meeting the needs of family scenarios.

• Market Response and Order Data: The pre-order data for Xiaomi YU7 is very impressive. Within 3 minutes, pre-orders exceeded 200,000 units, and within an hour, they exceeded 289,000 units. The number of users who have left their contact information is three times that of the SU7 at the same stage of its launch. Calculating with an average deposit of HK$5,000 per YU7, the 289,000 orders have secured a cash flow of HK$1.445 billion. If estimated based on a starting price of HK$253,500, the potential revenue scale reaches HK$73 billion.

• Pricing and Cost-Performance Strategy: Priced at HK$253,500, Xiaomi YU7 is HK$10,000 cheaper than Tesla Model Y, offering a higher cost-performance ratio and strong competitive ability against models like Tesla Model Y.

• Brand and Market Foundation: Xiaomi SU7 has achieved certain success, with a cumulative sales volume of 250,000 units within 14 months after its launch, becoming the sales champion among models priced above HK$200,000. This has accumulated a certain user base and market reputation for the Xiaomi automotive brand. Xiaomi Group as a whole is also at the starting point of a new round of growth, with the stable growth of its smartphone and IoT businesses providing strong support for the development of its automotive business.

Uncertain Factors:

• Intensified Market Competition: The competition in the new energy vehicle market is fierce, with new competitors and products constantly emerging. Models such as Tesla Model Y, NIO EC6, and XPeng G7 are direct competitors to Xiaomi YU7. These competitors have strong competitiveness in terms of brand, technology, and market, which may squeeze the market share of Xiaomi YU7 to some extent.

• Production Capacity and Delivery Capability: The first SUV from Xiaomi needs to verify its production ramp-up capability. Referring to the initial delivery delays of SU7, if YU7 cannot be delivered in a timely manner, it may have a negative impact on market confidence and user satisfaction.

• Product Quality and Stability: The stability of the vehicle model needs to be tested over the long term, especially the safety that family users care about. If quality issues or safety accidents occur during subsequent use, it will cause serious damage to the brand image and market reputation of Xiaomi's automobiles.

• Changes in the Market Environment: External factors such as the slowdown in the growth rate of demand in the new energy vehicle industry, upstream cost pressures, the progress of offline store expansion, the construction of supercharging networks, and the implementation speed of autonomous driving may all affect the market performance of Xiaomi YU7.