To The Moon

$Xiaomi Corp.(XIACY)$ $XIAOMI-W(01810)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 🚗⚡📈 From Smartphones to Supercars, Xiaomi Accelerates Toward the Two Hundred Billion Milestone 📈⚡🚗

They laughed when Xiaomi launched a car, they are not laughing now.

ADR shares XIACY are up 161 % year over year versus 9 % for Apple.

Five-year gain, Xiaomi 328  %, Apple 153 %.

Coatue’s 2030 Fantastic 40 list ranks Xiaomi 23rd, above Salesforce, Spotify, Uber, and GE, projecting a 425 billion USD market cap.

This is not a side hustle, it is a takeover bid.

4,800 locked deposits every minute, 289,000 in the first hour.

The SU7 and YU7 have made Xiaomi the fastest-selling EV brand in China.

Valuation now edges toward 200 billion USD.

📊 Performance Snapshot

• HK 01810 up 257.71 % in twelve months, XIACY up 161.64 %

• Bloomberg Intelligence expects EV break-even in Q4 2025, operating profit per vehicle near ¥5,000

⚙️ Fundamental Engine

• IoT and ads flywheel runs near 65 % margin

• FY 2024 margins: Smart EV 18.5 %, Group 20.9 %, Smartphone 12.6 %

• Two-model strategy, SU7 and YU7, shares more than 90 % of parts, cutting unit cost

📈 Technical Pulse

• Moving averages: MA5 HK$53,800, MA10 HK$52,510, MA20 HK$50,970, MA30 HK$45,630

• RSI-6 at 75, MACD positive since April, volume confirms breakout

🚀 Demand Shock

• 200,000 orders in three minutes

• 289,000 orders in one hour

• More than 240,000 locked deposits in 18 hours

Citigroup gave under a 6 % chance of 250,000 in a day, Xiaomi cleared it in under an hour

🛠️ Competitive Edge

Range 760 km, Model Y 719 km

Acceleration 3.23 s, Model Y 4.3 s

Charging 800 V, Tesla 400 V

Thor chip, LiDAR, 11 HD cameras, 12 ultrasonics standard

Cabin 43-inch HUD, Dolby Atmos, rear massage seats, smart fridge

Entry price ¥253,500, about ¥10,000 below Model Y

🏗️ Scaling and Margins

• Phase 2 factory online, Phase 3 lifts capacity to 400,000 units

• Break-even forecast Q4 2025, profit per EV about ¥5,000

💡 Credit Catalyst

• Fitch and Moody’s hold positive outlooks, upgrade to BBB+ / Baa1 likely if EV break-even arrives in 2025

• Dollar-bond spread tightest among BBB tech peers

• Net cash 5.5 billion USD, leverage projected below 0.7 ×

💰 Institutional Flow

HK$3.25 billion turnover on breakout sessions, short interest under 1 %

Coatue, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price reported buyers

📊 Sell-Side Heat Map

Highest target HK$85, average HK$69, low HK$33.90

XIACY targets: average 37.50 USD, high 47.68 USD, low 3.07 USD

Ratings 87 % Bullish, 10 % Neutral, 3 % Bearish

⚠️ Risk Matrix

Regulatory: stricter ADAS and door-handle tests after the SU7 fatality

Competition: Tesla or XPeng may trim Model Y or G7 pricing

Scaling: battery and SiC inverter supply must keep pace with Phase 3 output

Macro: export tariffs could delay overseas expansion

🔭 Forward Scenarios

Bull 45 %, 420,000 deliveries, 22 % margin, HK$90, XIACY 58 USD

Base 40 %, 350,000 deliveries, 19 % margin, HK$74, XIACY 45 USD

Bear 15 %, 300,000 deliveries, 14 % margin, HK$53, XIACY 34 USD

📌 Watchlist

• weekly YU7 delivery times on Xiaomi app

• Beijing Phase 3 milestones

• Tesla China pricing moves

• rating-agency updates on EV margin progress

• export filings for ASEAN and Gulf markets

🧠 Contrarian Insight

Vertical integration trims about 15 % off unit cost versus peers, letting Xiaomi under-price while targeting 20 % EV margins. BYD owns scale, Huawei owns software, Xiaomi controls both.

🎯 Actionable Playbook

Long: accumulate HK$56–57 or ADR 36–37 USD, hold for rating-upgrade catalyst

Swing: buy on daily close above HK$62 or 40.50 USD, trail the 10-day EMA

Options: buy September HK$65 call, sell HK$75 call, aggressive traders may write August HK$50 put

🏁 Conclusion

Xiaomi built the hardware for hundreds of millions, now it is building the horsepower to move them. Coatue backs a 425 billion USD future while rating agencies line up potential upgrades. Cost advantage, ecosystem lock-in, and EV margin expansion set the stage. When 4,800 deposits a minute hit the ledger, the scoreboard flips fast.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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