To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟The second half of  2025 begins with the global markets at the crossroads.  It is a market narrative that is anything but quiet.  We are starring down the barrel of renewed Trump era tariffs,   geopolitical flash points from Middle East to Ukraine and a Federal Reserve that is walking a tightrope between inflation and growth.   Volatility is back.  News headlines are loud.  But beneath the surface, the long term compounding machine keeps humming.

That is why I am staying the course and adding to my positions in 3 core index ETFs - SPTM,  ES3.SI and FXI.

Why These ETFs? 

US SPTM - SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite ETF

$SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF(SPTM)$ offers broad US exposure, covering Large, Mid and Small Cap stocks across the S&P500, Mid Cap 400 and Small Cap 600 index. 

Dividend yield is currently 1.25% paid quarterly.   Expense ratio is a low 0.03%.

SPTM has just reached its 52 week high on July 3 at USD 76.00.  It is up 6.4% year todate and in 2024 it has risen by 12%.

Analyst consensus - Moderate Buy with a 12 month target price of USD 83.58, an upside potential of 10%.

Despite tariff induced volatility, US corporate earnings remain resilient, especially in Tech and Financial sectors.  With ultra low fees of 0.03% and broad diversification, SPTM is my core holding for long term growth. 

Singapore - ES3.SI - SPDR Straits Times Index ETF

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$  is Singapore's economic barometer as it tracks the Top 30 SGX listed companies.  These blue chips include the 3 Big Banks DBS, OCBC and UOB as well as Singtel, SGX, Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust and many more. 

Dividend yield is a robust 4.38% paid semi annually. 

Share price of ES3.SI recently hit all time high of SGD 4. 11.   It has risen almost 7% year todate and is up 20.8 % in 2024.

ES3.SI is favoured for its defensive tilt and strong institutional ownership.  It is a regional anchor in any South East Asia allocation. 

China - FXI - iShares China Large Cap ETF

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$  is China's blue-chip gateway as it tracks the 50 largest and most liquid Chinese companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.  The Top 10 holdings include Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD and many more. 

Dividend yield is 1.52% paid semi annually. 

Performance wise, FXI is up 21% year todate and in 2024 it has jumped by 37%.

Analyst consensus is Bullish as they project a 40% upside as sentiments towards Chinese equities improve and institutional flows return. 

FXI is riding a wave of momentum with valuations still below historical averages.  It is a contrarian bet with lots of upside potential. 

The Macro Backdrop - Tariffs, Tensions and Turning Points

Trump's Tariffs - Short term pain but long term clarity 

The 90 day pause on Trump's sweeping 10% to 50% Tariffs ends on July 9 with global markets bracing for impact. 

Sectors like autos, steel and electronics are in the crosshairs but tech and financial sectors have shown surprising resilience. 

Long Term View - While tariffs may dent margins, they also accelerate domestic innovation and supply chain diversification.  The market learns to adjust. 

Geopolitical Tensions - The New Normal 

From Iran to Ukraine, global hotspots are fueling volatility.  But history has shown that markets do adapt.

IMF data suggests that while geopolitical shocks spite volatility, their long term impact on asset price is often muted. 

BlackRock and other institutional giants are rotating into defense, infrastructure and dividend paying equities. 

Why I Am Staying Invested 

Markets are forward looking machines.  They have already priced in a good chunk of fear.  What the markets have not priced in is the resilience of global consumers, the power of innovation and the compounding effect of staying the course. 

SPTM gives me exposure to US, the world's most dynamic economy and has just hit a new high. 

ES3.SI anchors me in a stable, dividend rich market that is also breaking new records. 

FXI positions me well for a rebound in Greater China with its large cap strength. 

Together these 3 powerful ETFs form a global, diversified, low cost and high conviction core in my portfolio.  This is exactly what I want and need in uncertain times. 

Final Word - Don't Flinch, Rebalance. 

The second half of 2025 will test investors  but it will also reward those who stay focused.  I am not chasing headline stocks.  I am chasing long term wealth. 

So yes, I am still buying SPTM, still holding ES3.SI and still accumulating FXI. 

This is because when the dust settles, the market will do what it always does and that is it rewards Patience, Discipline and Conviction. 

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