S&P 500 Flashes MVB Sell Signal
By Lawrence G. McMillan
The S&P 500 ($SPX) remains in a solid uptrend, but yesterday marked a notable shift: a confirmed McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal was triggered. This is the first such signal in this market cycle — and it may mark the start of a short-term pullback.
The MVB system identifies statistically significant overbought and oversold conditions using proprietary volatility bands. When price action pierces the upper band and then reverses, it can indicate that momentum is fading. In this case, $SPX is targeting a move back toward the –4σ band, currently near 6030.
Importantly, the SPX was not alone. A number of individual stocks, including CLF, COF, GS, F, and MS, also produced MVB sell signals yesterday.
| Symbol | Short Entry | Stop Loss | Long-Term Trend | 20d Avg Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SPX | 6221.47 | 6302 | UP | 0 |
| $XSP | 62216 | 63038.69 | UP | 0 |
| BITX | 60.71 | 68.75 | UP | 8378464.95 |
| CAVA | 86.25 | 92.25 | DOWN | 4349016.75 |
| CLF | 8.79 | 9.88 | DOWN | 31577690.5 |
| COF | 213.5 | 222.47 | UP | 3481376.25 |
| CRSP | 50.88 | 59.5 | DOWN | 3829655.8 |
| DAL | 54.62 | 58.25 | DOWN | 12715454.45 |
| DLTR | 105.46 | 109.75 | UP | 3248477.4 |
| F | 11.38 | 12.02 | UP | 88593900.2 |
| GS | 695.12 | 723.17 | UP | 2394606.75 |
| IBIT | 65.21 | 69.5 | UP | 48827030.8 |
| JETS | 24.54 | 25.6 | DOWN | 4085931.8 |
| KEY | 17.71 | 18.42 | DOWN | 16711185.55 |
| KHC | 26.83 | 28 | DOWN | 19633005.6 |
| KRE | 60.62 | 64.05 | DOWN | 15358207.55 |
| MRNA | 30.75 | 34.12 | DOWN | 9859628.65 |
| MSOS | 2.38 | 3 | DOWN | 6307357.25 |
| MS | 140.67 | 144.83 | UP | 5833394.4 |
| SPY | 620.04 | 628.3 | UP | 70685930.2 |
| TFC | 43.92 | 45.75 | DOWN | 7683890.6 |
| WFC | 76.62 | 85.38 | DOWN | 19340230.1 |
We continue to respect the primary uptrend, but we also take confirmed signals seriously.
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