To The Moon

The crypto market is ablaze as Ethereum (ETH) rockets to $3,600, its highest since January 7, 2025, and Solana (SOL) surges 21% in a month to $302.50. The U.S. House’s passage of three landmark bills—GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act—on July 17, 2025, during “Crypto Week” has supercharged crypto stocks, with Circle Internet Group (CRCL) and Coinbase Global (COIN) leading the pack. CRCL, issuer of the USDC stablecoin, soared 17% to $237, while COIN, the top U.S. crypto exchange, climbed to $398.20. With Bitcoin at $123,000 and regulatory clarity fueling optimism, investors are asking: Which stock—CRCL or COIN—offers the best shot at capitalizing on this bull market? Is it too late to jump in? This report dives into the crypto bills’ impact, compares CRCL and COIN, and outlines strategic investment approaches to ride this wave while managing risks.

“Crypto Week” Bills: A Regulatory Revolution

The U.S. House’s approval of three crypto bills on July 17, 2025, marks a historic shift, providing clarity and legitimacy to the $4 trillion crypto market:

• GENIUS Act: Passed with a 308-122 vote, this bill mandates stablecoin issuers to back coins 1:1 with cash or liquid assets, register federally, and implement anti-money laundering measures. It’s a direct win for Circle, boosting USDC’s credibility.

• CLARITY Act: Approved 294-134, it classifies digital assets as securities (SEC oversight) or commodities (CFTC oversight), reducing regulatory uncertainty. Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely CFTC-bound, encouraging institutional investment.

• Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act: Passed 219-210, it prohibits a Federal Reserve digital currency, preserving space for decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

These bills, now awaiting President Trump’s signature, could drive institutional adoption, with Polymarket estimating a 95% chance of GENIUS Act enactment by July 18. Social media sentiment on X is bullish, with users predicting “a crypto bull run to $150,000 for BTC” and “CRCL to $300,” though some warn of “post-bill profit-taking.”

Ethereum and Solana: Fueling the Rally

• Ethereum (ETH): Up 80% YTD to $3,600, ETH’s surge reflects its DeFi dominance (60% of $100 billion TVL) and ETF approvals. Resistance at $3,800 is key; a breakout could target $4,000-$4,500. Support at $3,200-$3,400 holds firm, with RSI at 68 indicating upside potential.

• Solana (SOL): Up 21% in a month to $302.50 (101% YTD), SOL’s high-throughput blockchain (65,000 TPS) drives DeFi and NFT growth, with $5 billion TVL. Resistance at $350 could lead to $400-$500; support at $280-$290 aligns with recent lows.

Both cryptocurrencies benefit from the bills’ clarity, with ETH’s stability and SOL’s volatility offering distinct opportunities.

Circle (CRCL) vs. Coinbase (COIN): The Showdown

Circle Internet Group ( $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ )

• Market Position: Issuer of USDC, the second-largest stablecoin with a $60 billion market cap, CRCL surged 589% YTD to $237 since its June 2025 IPO. The GENIUS Act directly enhances USDC’s legitimacy, potentially doubling its market cap to $120 billion by 2026, per Bernstein.

• Financials: Q1 2025 revenue hit $578.6 million (up from $1.68 billion in 2024), with a $64.8 million net profit. A $5.43 billion cash reserve supports expansion, but a 250x forward P/E signals high risk.

• Catalysts: The Ant Group partnership (July 2025) to integrate USDC into its 1.6 billion-user platform could add $100-$150 million in revenue. Circle’s national trust bank application strengthens its regulatory moat.

• Technical Analysis: Resistance at $250-$300; support at $200-$220. RSI at 70 suggests near-overbought conditions but room for gains if momentum holds.

• Risks: High valuation, competition from Tether ($152 billion market cap), and tariff risks (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) could trigger a pullback to $180-$200.

Coinbase Global ( $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ )

• Market Position: The largest U.S. crypto exchange, COIN is up 171% YTD to $398.20, with a $120 billion market cap. It benefits from broader crypto market growth, with trading volume up 40% in Q1 2025.

• Financials: Q1 2025 revenue was $2 billion (up 36% YoY), with an $88 million net profit. A 32x forward P/E is high but more reasonable than CRCL’s, with a 2.17 beta indicating volatility.

• Catalysts: The CLARITY Act’s regulatory framework could boost institutional trading, with tokenized stock offerings adding revenue. Partnerships with Perplexity AI enhance market analysis tools.

• Technical Analysis: Resistance at $400-$420; support at $350-$360. RSI at 65 suggests upside potential.

• Risks: Competition from Kraken and Binance, plus tariff-driven market volatility, could drag COIN to $330-$350.

My Pick

I’m more confident in CRCL for its direct exposure to the GENIUS Act and stablecoin growth, potentially hitting $300-$350 (26-48% upside) by year-end. COIN’s broader market exposure is strong, but its higher valuation and competition limit immediate upside compared to CRCL’s stablecoin focus.

Is It Too Late to Join the Crypto Bull Market?

The crypto market’s $4 trillion cap, with Bitcoin at $123,000, ETH at $3,600, and SOL at $302.50, suggests the bull run has legs:

• Bull Case: The bills’ passage could drive $200 billion in institutional inflows by 2026, per JPMorgan, pushing BTC to $150,000, ETH to $4,500, and SOL to $500. CRCL and COIN could rally 20-50%.

• Bear Case: Profit-taking post-bills, with a CRSI of 72 for BTC, could trigger a 5-10% pullback, dragging BTC to $110,000-$115,000, CRCL to $200-$220, and COIN to $330-$350, per 10x Research.

• Market Dynamics: The S&P 500’s resilience at 6,263.26 and Nasdaq’s 20,630 high support risk assets, but tariffs and geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict, oil at $75/barrel) pose risks.

It’s not too late to join, but timing is critical—buy on dips to manage volatility.

Trading and Investment Strategies

Short-Term Plays

• Buy CRCL on Dip: Enter at $200-$220, target $300-$350, stop at $180. A 26-48% gain if USDC adoption surges.

• Buy COIN on Dip: Grab at $350-$360, target $400-$420, stop at $330. A 10-20% gain on market growth.

• Options Straddle: Buy $237 calls/puts on CRCL or $398.20 calls/puts on COIN for volatility around bill enactment.

• Crypto Hedge: Buy Bitcoin ETF ( $ProShares Bitcoin ETF(BITO)$ ) at $30, target $40, stop at $28, for broad exposure.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold CRCL: Buy at $200-$220, target $350-$400 over 12 months, for 50-75% upside with stablecoin growth.

• Hold COIN: Buy at $350-$360, target $450-$500, for 25-39% upside with market expansion.

• Diversify with Tech ETF (XLK): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for broad tech exposure.

• Defensive Play: Buy UnitedHealth (UNH) at $300, target $436.83, for 40% upside and 2.8% dividend yield.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or market volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m cautiously bullish on CRCL, seeing $300-$350 as achievable by year-end 2025 if USDC adoption grows post-GENIUS Act. I’ll buy CRCL at $200-$220, targeting $300-$350, with a $180 stop, and COIN at $350-$360, targeting $400-$420, with a $330 stop. For diversification, I’ll add BITO at $30, targeting $40, with a $28 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash to seize dips if tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) or geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict) escalate. I’ll monitor bill enactment, crypto market trends, and Q2 earnings for cues.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

The passage of the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Act on July 17, 2025, has ignited a crypto bull market, with Ethereum at $3,600, Solana at $302.50, and crypto stocks like CRCL (up 589% YTD) and COIN (up 171% YTD) soaring. CRCL’s direct exposure to stablecoin regulations gives it an edge, potentially hitting $300-$350, while COIN’s broader market role supports gains to $400-$420. The crypto market’s $4 trillion cap and institutional inflows suggest the bull run has legs, but high valuations, tariff risks, and geopolitical tensions pose challenges. Investors should buy CRCL and COIN on dips, use options for volatility plays, and hedge with VIXY or GLD to manage risks. The crypto market’s red-hot—pick your winners and trade smart.

Which stock are you betting on—CRCL or COIN? Is it too late for the crypto bull market? Share your strategy below! 🎁

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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