To The Moon

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ s$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 🚀📡🔥 Rocket Lab: Big Leaps, Big Bets, and Bigger Ascent 🔥📡🚀

I’m still long and cruising with a +22.31% gain in my commons position, but what just hit the options chain has lit the launch pad again!

20Jul25 NZST 🇳🇿: 🐋 This week, Rocket Lab ($RKLB) just clocked in one of the most aggressive, conviction-fueled LEAPS flows I’ve seen in months; nearly $3 million in premium dropped on the $65 16Jan26 calls. That’s not speculation; that’s positioning.

📈 Options Market Signals Are Flashing Green

Over 71,000 RKLB calls traded in one day, triple the usual volume. Implied volatility jumped more than 4 points to 98.87%. Most of that firepower concentrated on the Jul-25 $50 and $55 strikes, with over 10,600 contracts exchanged at those levels. The Put/Call ratio compressed to just 0.35. That’s a bull tilt with serious intent.

And those 2026 LEAPS? They’re still holding two-thirds of the original size. That kind of retention speaks to a longer-term view; this isn’t just an earnings flip. It’s a macro bet on where Rocket Lab’s ecosystem will be 18 months from now.

🧠 Institutional Coverage Catching Up to Fundamentals

CFRA just released a fresh report tagging RKLB with a Strong Buy, stating:

“Our Strong Buy recommendation reflects our view that RKLB has emerged as one of the top launch providers for small payloads. We believe the valuation is incredibly attractive considering our long-term outlook.”

That long-term lens includes Neutron development, growing launch cadence, and RKLB’s ability to scale its end-to-end satellite services. With earnings due 07Aug25 (ET), this is the kind of setup where institutional analysts are finally starting to catch up to what smart money has already priced in.

🛰 Dassault + ESA: HASTE Launch Net 2027

Dassault Aviation’s VORTEX Project, under the French Ministry of the Armed Forces and ESA, has outlined Rocket Lab’s HASTE platform for a NET 2027 launch. This places RKLB squarely in the crosshairs of European defence and sovereign capability contracts. If successfully executed, this would represent a multi-year revenue stream in an incredibly sticky vertical.

This contract isn’t just a win. It’s validation. Government-backed payloads from Europe don’t go to companies with flaky execution records. They go to operators with reliability, recovery, and cadence; and that’s Rocket Lab’s domain now.

🚀 Geopolitical Tailwinds: Trump v. Musk = RKLB Advantage

In a wildcard twist, President Trump has launched a review of SpaceX contracts amid a tax feud with Elon. While much of SpaceX’s Pentagon work is considered vital and may remain untouched, the narrative damage is done. Any perceived vulnerability in the market leader lifts the second-mover.

Rocket Lab is that second-mover. If government agencies start diversifying risk or even signalling support for alternate providers, it would represent an inflection point in RKLB’s opportunity set.

💡 Technicals: Still Structurally Bullish

Price is hovering near $51.16, with recent action pushing as high as $53.44. The weekly chart still shows a parabolic arc, respecting short-term moving averages and consolidating above the $48 breakout zone. RSI remains elevated but not extreme, leaving room for continuation.

Volume shelves remain thin above $53, suggesting a clean run toward mid-$50s if earnings guidance supports it.

📊 Updated Earnings Scenarios Into 07Aug25

Scenario A: Beat + Neutron Progress + Contract Additions

🎯 Target: $60–$68

Catalyst: Revenue upside, forward guidance, institutional coverage increase.

Scenario B: Inline + Retained Option Flow Conviction

🎯 Target: $55–$58

Probability: Solid fundamentals, strong LEAPS continuation, no major negatives.

Scenario C: Miss + Execution Questions

🎯 Target: $43–$47

Catalyst: Delays, margin compression, cash flow concern.

⚠️ Risks Still Matter

• RKLB remains a high-beta name; sentiment swings will magnify moves

• Delays in Neutron readiness or cost overruns could pressure margins

• If the 07Aug25 earnings print disappoints, leveraged LEAPS flow may unwind

📌 Why I’m Still Long

I entered with conviction, and now I’m holding with data. My position is up +22.31%, and I’m seeing fundamentals, technicals, options flow, and geopolitical tailwinds align into a multi-sigma setup. I’m not blindly chasing; I’m strategically holding because the risk-reward remains asymmetric, and the narrative is still expanding, not contracting.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, Barcode 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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