To The Moon

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$  

Current Snapshot:

Trading around $161, up from its IPO debut, reflecting strong momentum and investor optimism.

What's Coming (Earnings Tuesday, Aug 12):

Consensus Forecast: Revenue estimated around $645–647M (+48–50% YoY); EPS expected to show a non-GAAP adjusted loss near –$0.08 per share .

Macro Tailwinds: The GENIUS Act has accelerated regulatory clarity for stablecoins, boosting sentiment.

Wall Street Split:

Bullish View (Seaport) sees Circle’s first-mover status and expansion potential pushing the stock toward $280.

Bearish View (Mizuho) warns of thin revenue diversification and margin pressure, issuing a Sell rating with an $85 target—a ~50% downside.

Post–Earnings Scenarios:

Outlook Conditions & Price Path

Bullish (30%) Strong beat on revenue/EPS, crypto rally (BTC/ETH up), supportive outlook from management. Expect 25–35% spike to $200–220.

Base (50%) In-line numbers, modest outlook, CIO maintains neutrality. Trading range between $155–170.

Bearish (20%) Missed estimates or weakening guidance; rate-cut fears dim crypto growth. CRCL likely slips toward $130–140.

Strategy Playbook:

Long-Entry Zones: Scale in around $155–160, keep tight stops near $150.

Post-Earnings Trade: Use a straddle (ATM calls + puts) to capture IV swing if unsure of direction.

Fundamental Holders: Hold through volatility if your thesis rests on stablecoin adoption and regulated expansion.

Verdict:

This is one of the most pivotal inflection points for $CRCL's narrative. Earnings could either validate the hype or expose valuation cracks. Personally, I lean base-to-bullish—with crypto tailwinds and tangible policy support, upside to $200+ isn't off the table.

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!