To The Moon

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$, a leading Chinese smart electric vehicle (EV) company, is scheduled to release its fiscal Q2 2025 unaudited financial results on Tuesday, August 19, 2025, before the U.S. market opens. This report is highly anticipated as it will shed light on the company's progress amidst a fiercely competitive Chinese EV market.

Consensus Revenue Estimate: RMB 17.84 billion to RMB 18.62 billion (approximately $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion USD).

Consensus Earnings per Share (EPS) Estimate: A loss of RMB 0.90 to RMB 1.14 per share.

While specific consensus estimates for revenue and EPS are not available, XPeng has already provided a key piece of information: vehicle deliveries. The company announced that it delivered a record 103,181 vehicles in Q2, which falls within its previously provided guidance range of 102,000 to 108,000 units. This is a significant indicator of strong sales momentum.

XPeng (XPEV) Fiscal Q1 2025 Earnings: A Summary and Key Lessons

XPeng kicked off its fiscal year 2025 with a strong first quarter, demonstrating significant growth and improved financial health. The company's results underscored its rising prominence in the competitive Chinese EV market, driven by record deliveries and a focus on operational efficiency.

Summary of Q1 2025 Performance

Record Deliveries and Revenue: XPeng delivered 94,008 vehicles in Q1 2025, a monumental 330.8% year-over-year increase, setting a new historical record for the company. This surge in sales drove total revenue to RMB 15.81 billion, a 141.5% increase from the same period last year and a figure that beat analyst expectations.

Improved Margins: A key highlight was the company's profitability. XPeng's gross margin reached a record high of 15.6%, and its vehicle margin improved to 10.5%. This was the seventh consecutive quarter of vehicle margin expansion, demonstrating a successful effort to reduce costs and improve its product mix.

Narrowing Losses: The company continued to make progress toward profitability, with its net loss narrowing significantly compared to the prior quarter and the same period last year. This trend indicates that economies of scale are starting to take effect as sales volume increases.

Lessons from the Fiscal Q2 2025 Guidance

While the Q1 results were strong, the guidance provided for the second quarter (Q2) and beyond offered crucial insights into XPeng's strategy and the challenges it faces.

Lesson 1: Volume Growth is the Priority. XPeng's guidance for Q2 deliveries was between 102,000 and 108,000 units, which indicated a sustained focus on expanding its market share. This reaffirmed that, for XPeng, the primary goal remains to scale its business and capture a larger portion of the Chinese EV market. The lesson is that, at this stage of its growth, top-line expansion and market penetration are more important catalysts for the stock than immediate profitability.

Lesson 2: The Importance of a Diversified Strategy. Management commentary on its growth drivers went beyond just the headline delivery numbers. XPeng highlighted its progress in international expansion, with plans for rapid growth in overseas business, as well as its strategic collaborations, such as the partnership with Volkswagen. This demonstrated that the company is not solely reliant on its domestic market and is building a more resilient, global business.

Lesson 3: AI is the Differentiator. Throughout the earnings call, management repeatedly emphasized its leadership in AI and smart driving technology. The company's investment in its full-stack, in-house R&D system, including its self-developed "Turing" chips, and AI-powered advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), was presented as a key competitive advantage. The lesson for investors is that in the crowded Chinese EV market, a company's technological edge, particularly in AI, is a crucial factor for long-term success and is a metric that should be closely watched.

Key Metrics for Investors to Watch

Beyond the headline numbers of revenue and earnings, investors should pay close attention to these key metrics to understand the full picture of XPeng's performance:

Gross Margin: This is arguably the most critical metric for a new-era EV manufacturer. In its Q1 2025 report, XPeng achieved a record-high gross margin. A key question for Q2 will be whether the company can maintain or even improve this margin, especially given the intense price competition in the Chinese EV market.

Vehicle Deliveries: While the official Q2 number has been released, commentary on the monthly breakdown and, more importantly, the outlook for Q3 and the rest of the year will be vital. The company's goal is to double its 2024 deliveries in 2025, and progress toward that target will be a major focus.

Operating Expenses and Path to Profitability: XPeng is still an unprofitable company, but it has been making progress in reducing its net loss. Investors will be looking for a continued trend of lower net losses, which would indicate improving operational efficiency.

Guidance: The outlook for Q3 and the full year will be the most significant market-moving factor. Investors will be keen to hear management's expectations for deliveries, revenue, and profitability in the coming quarters. Any updates on its joint ventures and strategic collaborations, such as the ongoing partnership with Volkswagen, will also be of great interest.

International Expansion and New Models: Commentary on XPeng's progress in expanding its global footprint and the market reception of new models like the G7 and the updated P7 will be important for assessing the company's long-term growth prospects.

XPeng (XPEV) Price Target

Based on 24 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for XPeng, Inc. ADR in the last 3 months. The average price target is $24.33 with a high forecast of $30.00 and a low forecast of $12.00. The average price target represents a 20.23% change from the last price of $20.24.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities Post-Earnings

Trading XPeng stock around its earnings report presents both opportunities and risks, typical for a high-growth, high-volatility stock.

The "Deliveries are Priced-in" Effect: Since the Q2 delivery numbers are already known, a positive surprise on revenue or, more importantly, on profitability (gross margin and net loss) could lead to a significant short-term rally.

Guidance is a Major Catalyst: As with many growth companies, the stock's movement will likely be dictated by the forward-looking guidance. If management provides a strong, optimistic outlook for the second half of 2025, the stock could see a positive spike. Conversely, a conservative or disappointing forecast could lead to a sell-off, even with a strong Q2 beat.

Technical Levels: For short-term traders, it is wise to identify key support and resistance levels. A strong report could push the stock to test recent highs, while a weak report could see it fall back to lower support levels.

We can see that XPEV bulls is trying to push for a daily uptrend, but we can see some resistance despite positive momentum, and the guidance and strong report is important for XPEV to test the recent new highs.

Volatility and Options: XPeng's stock is known for its volatility, which increases around earnings reports. Options traders might consider strategies like a straddle or a strangle to capitalize on a large move in either direction, but they must be aware of the associated risks of high implied volatility.

Summary

XPeng (XPEV) is scheduled to release its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings on August 19, 2025. With a record 103,181 vehicle deliveries already announced for the quarter, the market's focus will shift to other key metrics. Investors should pay close attention to the company's gross margin, which has been steadily improving and is a crucial indicator of profitability in the competitive EV market.

The most significant factor for the stock's short-term movement will be the company's guidance for Q3 and the full year. Any updates on its joint ventures and international expansion, particularly in Europe, will also be of great interest. For short-term traders, the stock's high volatility around earnings, coupled with the pre-announced delivery numbers, means that the commentary on margins, profitability, and future outlook will be the primary catalyst for a significant price move.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think XPEV would provide a much stronger guidance for Q3 and full year to see a price surge.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.