To The Moon

In the heated geopolitical arena of October 16, 2025, President Donald Trump’s blistering response to China’s rare earth export restrictions has ignited a firestorm, vowing 100% tariffs and declaring the moves a “bad moment” for Beijing. As Trump blasts China’s “surprising” clampdown—expanding controls to five new elements like holmium and europium while imposing a “0.1% rule” on overseas products—U.S. officials like Bessent and Greer label it a “global supply chain power grab,” urging Beijing to back down or face equity stakes in American firms. This escalation, building on China’s April 2025 restrictions that slashed magnet exports 74% YoY, underscores a deepening U.S.-China decoupling that favors domestic critical minerals producers. Amid this turmoil, NioCorp Developments Ltd. ($NB), with its flagship Elk Creek project—the world’s largest known scandium deposit—stands as a prime beneficiary. I am unequivocally bullish on $NB: its strategic minerals like niobium and scandium, essential for aerospace and EV alloys, position it for massive upside, potentially reaching $15–$20 by 2026 as trade wars drive billions in U.S. investment. With the global rare earth market surging from $39.5 billion in 2024 to $62.8 billion by 2030 (CAGR 8%), $NB is not just riding the wave—it’s set to lead it.

NioCorp: A Critical Minerals Powerhouse in America’s Backyard

NioCorp Developments Ltd. ($NB), founded in 1987 and headquartered in Centennial, Colorado, is a pure-play explorer targeting niobium, scandium, titanium, and rare earths at its Elk Creek project in Nebraska. This 3,260-hectare site boasts 1.8 million tons of rare earth oxides, making it a U.S. strategic asset amid China’s dominance (91% of refined capacity). $NB’s products shine with unique features: niobium enhances steel alloys for 30% greater strength in pipelines and jets; scandium, rare globally, boosts aluminum alloys by 50% in lightness and corrosion resistance for aerospace; and rare earths like neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) enable high-efficiency magnets for EVs, reducing weight by 20%. With just seven employees, $NB focuses on sustainable mining—using low-water extraction and zero-waste tailings—to meet ESG standards, appealing to government and corporate buyers.

The stock’s recent ride: closing at $9.69 on October 15 (down 16.97% from $11.67), with pre-market at ~$9.50, reflects short-term volatility but masks YTD +30% and 1-year +50% gains. Market cap ~$95.81 million and beta ~2.0 signal high risk-reward, amplified by Trump’s tariff threats boosting domestic sourcing.

Solid Financials Amid Development Momentum

$NB’s TTM financials reflect its pre-production phase: zero revenue, EPS -0.36, and Q3 net loss of $42.7 million (mostly non-cash from earnout shares). Yet, cash reserves stand strong at $162.8 million post-October 13’s $60 million offering (16.07 million shares/warrants at $9.34), providing runway for Elk Creek’s advancement. Debt-to-equity is minimal at 0.1, with total assets $43.8 million. P/B at 1.2 suggests undervaluation relative to peers, as analysts project 2025 revenue at $5 million ramping to $500 million annually by 2027 upon production start.

Deeper analysis reveals cost efficiencies: Elk Creek’s integrated mine-mill design cuts operating expenses by 40% versus traditional sites, with projected NPV of $2.35 billion at current prices. Financing progress, like the Export-Import Bank (EXIM) review (passed TRC-1 in April 2024, potential $500 million loan), aligns with Trump’s “America First” push, potentially unlocking billions in value.

Catalysts: Government Orders and Trade War Tailwinds

Trump’s October 15 rhetoric—demanding China relent or face prolonged truces and equity grabs—directly amplifies $NB’s catalysts. The U.S. DoD’s $4 billion 2025 critical minerals budget prioritizes scandium for F-35 jets (reducing weight 15%) and niobium for hypersonic missiles (enhancing heat resistance 20%). $NB’s Elk Creek is slated for DoD orders, with preliminary talks for 100 tons of scandium annually.

International momentum builds: Germany’s €10 billion critical minerals initiative includes NdPr orders for wind turbines, where $NB’s rare earths improve efficiency 25%. Canada’s $1 billion Critical Minerals Strategy eyes Elk Creek for titanium in aerospace alloys (boosting durability 30%). Recent $60 million raise funds feasibility updates, with EXIM’s JPMorgan-assisted debt financing nearing approval—potentially $500 million by Q1 2026.

Product features shine: Elk Creek’s high-grade deposits (0.79% Nb2O5, 70 ppm Sc) enable low-cost extraction ($10/kg scandium vs. $3,500/kg market), positioning $NB as a cost-leader in a market where scandium demand surges 15% CAGR for EVs and defense. X buzz highlights $NB as a “trade war play,” with traders eyeing squeezes amid 30% short interest.

Market Opportunities and Competitive Edge

The rare earth market’s $16.9 billion 2030 projection (CAGR 12.3%) dovetails with $NB’s strengths.  Scandium’s niche—global production <20 tons/year—creates scarcity premiums, with $NB poised to capture 50% U.S. supply. Niobium, 90% from Brazil, faces diversification push; Elk Creek’s 3,000 tons/year could meet 10% global demand for superalloys in jets (strengthening 50%).

Competitive moat: Unlike diversified miners like $VALE, $NB’s focus yields lower capex ($1.7 billion for Elk Creek vs. $5 billion peers). Sustainability edge—zero-waste design—aligns with EU’s CRM Act, potentially securing 5,000-ton orders.

Risks Tempered by Upside

Development delays and dilution risks loom, but $162.8 million cash and low debt mitigate. Trade volatility? Trump’s tariffs shield U.S. producers like $NB. Industry headwinds like price slumps are offset by scandium’s 20% premium demand.

Conclusion: Ride the Wave with $NB

Trump’s trade war escalation is $NB’s golden ticket. With Elk Creek’s game-changing minerals, government-backed financing, and a market begging for alternatives, $NB could triple by 2027. I strongly advocate buying at $9.69—target $20+. The geopolitics are aligned; the opportunity is now.