To The Moon

$Pop Mart International Group Limited(POPMF)$

When Apple CEO Tim Cook visits a toy exhibition before a product launch, markets take notice. During his trip to Shanghai, Cook made an unexpected yet symbolic appearance at THE MONSTERS 10th Anniversary Exhibition, celebrating Pop Mart’s flagship character, LABUBU. There, he was greeted by Pop Mart founder Wang Ning and LABUBU creator Kasing Lung, who presented him with a custom Labubu figurine — one clutching an iPhone. The meeting wasn’t merely ceremonial; it was a cultural signal that Pop Mart’s global influence in art toys has transcended collector circles and entered mainstream consumer consciousness.

As if on cue, Morgan Stanley upgraded Pop Mart’s price target to HK$320, sparking renewed optimism among investors who see the brand as more than a niche toy producer — but a global lifestyle and IP-driven franchise in the making. The question now reverberating across Hong Kong’s trading floors: Can Pop Mart’s share price soar to HK$300 this week?

Performance Overview and Market Sentiment

Pop Mart International (09992.HK) has been one of Hong Kong’s most volatile yet captivating consumer stocks. The company, famous for its blind-box collectibles, built a billion-dollar market capitalization within a few short years — propelled by fervent fandom, scarcity-driven marketing, and the explosive popularity of the LABUBU line.

After peaking above HK$100 in 2021 during the pandemic-era collectibles craze, Pop Mart’s stock endured a steep correction, falling below HK$30 in 2022. However, 2024 marked the beginning of a revival story. The company’s expansion into Southeast Asia, Japan, and North America, coupled with new collaborations with luxury and tech brands, rekindled enthusiasm for its growth trajectory.

Recent months have seen a sharp rebound in share price, with trading volume surging following Cook’s China visit. The Morgan Stanley upgrade served as an added catalyst, amplifying retail investor sentiment on platforms like Xueqiu and Weibo, where Pop Mart’s name trended immediately after the Cook encounter went viral.

The Cook Effect: Symbolism Meets Strategy

While Tim Cook’s visit may appear incidental, it aligns with a broader narrative — the fusion of technology, design, and cultural storytelling. Apple has long emphasized the “artistry” behind its products, while Pop Mart has redefined what collectible art can mean for mass-market audiences.

Cook’s stop at the LABUBU exhibition, where he personally examined original sketches, signals Apple’s recognition of Pop Mart’s cultural pull among Gen Z and millennial consumers in China — demographics that overlap significantly with Apple’s customer base. The symbolic gesture of receiving a Labubu holding an iPhone underscored the convergence of art toy fandom and tech lifestyle culture.

For investors, this kind of cross-brand visibility is priceless. Pop Mart has spent the past two years trying to position itself as not just a toy company, but an IP incubator — creating characters and worlds that can evolve into games, animations, and consumer products. Cook’s appearance essentially validated that vision on a global stage.

Fundamentals and Financial Momentum

From a fundamental perspective, Pop Mart’s turnaround story has been underpinned by improving margins and renewed growth momentum.

• Revenue Growth: In FY2024, Pop Mart reported revenue growth exceeding 35% year-on-year, driven by international expansion and higher average selling prices.

• Profitability: Net profit surged by nearly 80%, reversing prior-year declines thanks to optimized cost structures and automation in production.

• Same-Store Sales: Comparable store growth in Mainland China rebounded strongly, with the company seeing positive traffic and sell-through rates at its retail outlets.

• Global Footprint: Overseas sales now account for roughly 15% of total revenue, a figure expected to surpass 25% by FY2026 as the company opens stores in the U.S., UK, and Europe.

The strategic rollout of LABUBU-themed exhibitions, including the Shanghai event attended by Cook, continues to drive brand awareness and ancillary merchandise sales. Each limited edition figurine drop sells out within minutes on Pop Mart’s online platforms, reinforcing its demand-driven pricing model.

Valuation and Upgraded Outlook

Morgan Stanley’s upgrade to HK$320 is based on several key assumptions:

1. Sustained International Expansion – especially in Japan, Singapore, and North America, where Pop Mart’s retail footprint is gaining traction.

2. Higher-Margin IP Monetization – through licensing, digital collectibles, and animation partnerships.

3. Brand Resilience Amid Consumption Slowdown – Pop Mart’s emotional appeal and collector loyalty offer pricing power even in a sluggish Chinese retail environment.

At current levels near HK$270–HK$280, Pop Mart trades at approximately 40x forward earnings, a premium to peers in the consumer discretionary sector, but one arguably justified by its double-digit revenue growth and unique brand moat.

Should the company maintain its growth trajectory and meet FY2025 guidance, the HK$300 psychological level appears attainable in the short term — particularly if market liquidity continues to favor growth and cultural consumer plays.

Risks and Challenges Ahead

Despite the optimism, investors should remain mindful of several risks:

• Cyclical Demand: Pop Mart’s revenue is closely tied to discretionary spending; any consumer slowdown could pressure sales.

• Product Saturation: Over-reliance on LABUBU poses concentration risk if new IPs fail to replicate its success.

• Market Volatility: As a retail-favorite stock, Pop Mart is prone to speculative trading and sentiment swings.

• Execution Risk Abroad: Cultural translation and brand resonance in foreign markets remain untested compared to its domestic dominance.

Still, management’s ability to refresh its character lineup, expand through pop-up events, and innovate in product design continues to mitigate these structural challenges.

Verdict: A Play on Cultural Capital

Pop Mart has evolved from a niche collectible brand into a cultural phenomenon that bridges art, fashion, and lifestyle. The company’s strategic alignment with global icons like Apple — intentional or not — only amplifies its resonance among the next generation of consumers.

With Morgan Stanley’s target at HK$320 and the market narrative now dominated by Cook’s headline-making visit, Pop Mart could feasibly test HK$300 in the near term, provided momentum holds and broader Hong Kong sentiment remains supportive.

Entry Price Zone: Investors seeking exposure to Pop Mart’s growth story might consider accumulation between HK$260 and HK$275, with a medium-term target of HK$320–HK$350 contingent on sustained earnings momentum.

Conclusion: From Figurines to a Global Franchise

What began as a blind-box collectible trend has matured into a formidable intellectual property engine. Pop Mart’s ability to transform its characters into global cultural symbols — now even gifting one to the CEO of Apple — reflects both marketing brilliance and timing.

If Pop Mart continues executing on its global roadmap, diversifying its IP, and harnessing fan engagement at the scale it has in China, the road to HK$300 might only be the start of a longer ascent. In a market searching for consumer growth stories with staying power, Pop Mart stands out as a rare fusion of art, business, and cultural influence — now officially recognized at the highest levels of tech and design.