To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 27Oct25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in Singapore, China and America in the coming week.

Hong Kong celebrates the Chung Yeung Festival on 29Oct25

Hong Kong Public Holiday: The 29th of October will be a public holiday in Hong Kong to observe Chung Yeung Day. It is known as the Double Ninth Festival and is a day for honouring ancestors and caring for the elderly.

Key Economic Announcements and Market Indicators

The upcoming week will feature several key economic announcements providing insights into the current state of the economy, monetary policy, and sector-specific performance.

Monetary Policy and Inflation

The most significant event will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s interest rate decision.

• Forecast: A decrease from the previous rate of 4.25% to 4.0% is anticipated by the market. Any deviation from this expectation could introduce market volatility. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, will also be announced, serving as a critical reference point for future interest rate decisions.

Economic Growth and Sentiment

Announcements will provide updates on overall economic performance and consumer outlook:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Q3: The forecast stands at 3.0%, a notable decrease from the prior quarter’s 3.8%.

• Consumer Confidence (Conference Board - CB): A forecasted figure of 93.9 suggests a marginal decline in consumer confidence from the previous reading of 92.4.

Manufacturing and Trade

Indicators for the manufacturing sector will be released, pointing toward potential contraction:

• Durable Goods Orders: The latest announcement will follow the previous reading of -2.7%.

• Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - October: The forecast of 49.7 suggests a contraction in the overall manufacturing sector (a reading below 50.0).

• Chicago PMI - October: A forecast of 42.0 implies a continuation of contraction in the Chicago manufacturing sector.

Housing and Energy

Key data for the housing market and energy sector are scheduled for release:

• New Home Sales: The forecast is 710,000 units, representing a significant drop from the prior figure of 800,000 units.

• Crude Oil Inventories: The latest announcement follows a previous dip of 0.961 million barrels. This data will offer insights into current consumption and production trends.

Earnings Calendar (27Oct25)

EARNINGS

We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including UPS, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, HSBC, Merck, Amazon, Apple, Coinbase, ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Analysis of ExxonMobil’s Performance (2015-2024)

This summary provides a professional assessment of the current stock rating, technical outlook, and price movement.

• Consensus Rating: The overall analyst sentiment for the stock is a Buy rating.

• Technical Analysis: Technical indicators support this positive view, resulting in a Strong Buy signal.

• Price Target: The consensus target price for the stock is $126.51, which represents a potential upside of 9.64% from the current market price.

Recent news about ExxonMobil from Investing dot com

This analysis provides a professional overview of ExxonMobil’s financial performance from 2015 to 2024, highlighting key trends in revenue, profitability, shareholder value, and balance sheet strength.

Revenue and Profitability Trends

ExxonMobil demonstrated substantial growth across its core financial metrics over the nine years, though peak performance was achieved in 2022.

• Revenue showed a strong upward trend, increasing from $239.8 billion in 2015 to $339.2 billion in 2024. However, the company achieved its all-time high revenue of $398.6 billion in 2022.

• Gross Profit grew consistently, climbing from $56.0 billion in 2015 to its highest reported value of $76.7 billion in 2024.

• Operating Profit significantly improved, rising from $12.8 billion in 2015 to $39.65 billion in 2024. Similar to revenue, the peak Operating Profit was $64.0 billion in 2022.

Shareholder Value and Efficiency

Metrics focused on shareholder returns and operational efficiency indicate positive performance and strong value generation.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS) more than doubled over the period, increasing from $3.85 in 2015 to $7.84 in 2024. The peak EPS was recorded in 2022 at $13.26.

• Dividends Per Share (DPS) demonstrated a reliable commitment to shareholder returns, with continuous growth from $2.88 in 2015 to its all-time high of $3.84 in 2024.

• The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio stands at an attractive 15.9, suggesting the stock may be reasonably valued relative to its earnings.

Margin and Leverage

The analysis of long-term margins and balance sheet leverage indicates sound financial management and high stability.

• The 10-Year Median Gross Margin stands at 23.4%, reflecting the company’s strong, consistent ability to generate profit from sales over the last decade.

• The 10-Year Median Free Cash Flow Margin is 6.0%, indicating solid long-term capacity to generate cash after covering capital expenditures.

The company maintains an exceptionally strong balance sheet position:

• The Debt-to-Assets Ratio is a very low 0.1%, indicating minimal reliance on debt financing relative to total assets.

• The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is an attractive 0.2%, signifying a low level of financial leverage.

Upcoming Earnings Forecast

The current market consensus forecasts for the forthcoming earnings period are as follows:

• Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast: $1.83

• Revenue Forecast: $86.48 billion

Investment Outlook and Disclaimer

The stock currently appears to offer attractive value based on a preliminary assessment.

Important Disclaimer: Investment decisions should always be preceded by thorough, independent research and due diligence. The provided information is based on market forecasts and does not constitute personalised investment advice. Investors are strongly encouraged to consult with a qualified financial professional before committing capital.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Oct25)

Technical observations:

• MACD analysis indicates a bullish trend.

• The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. The 3 EMA lines have stopped converging.

• Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term.

• The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.15, indicating an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

An in-depth technical analysis of the S&P 500, conducted using daily intervals, reveals overwhelmingly positive signals for investors. Out of a comprehensive set of 22 technical indicators, all have issued a buy rating, while none have suggested a sell rating. This consensus among indicators highlights a strong bullish sentiment and suggests favourable conditions for those considering new positions or holding existing investments in the S&P 500.

Key completed patterns highlight mixed signals with a bearish tilt in the near term (by Grok):

• Bearish Dominance: The most recent is a Bearish Engulfing, suggesting potential reversal pressure after the prior week’s gains. Supporting this are multiple Three Outside Down and Deliberation Bearish formations pointing to fading momentum from earlier 2025 highs.

• Bullish Counterpoints: Earlier bullish setups like Morning Doji Star and Morning Star fueled the summer rally, with Upside Gap Three Methods confirming gap fills. A Bullish Engulfing adds historical support for rebounds.

Outlook: Short-term bullish bias persists with today’s close, but watch for confirmation above 6,800 to invalidate the fresh Bearish Engulfing. A drop below 6,700 could trigger a deeper pullback toward September lows.

Given the above, the technicals may lean towards a bullish outlook for the coming week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (27Oct25)

S&P 500 Growth divided by S&P 500 Value is right now testing some big, bad, bold resistance. - X user Jeff Weniger

Fatality rates involving heavy-duty trucks have increased by 40% over the past decade. Culprit: the elimination of training standards and issuance of a CDL to anyone. - X user Craig Fuller

President Trump says he is raising tariffs on Canada by 10% “over and above what they are paying now.”

BREAKING: 67.6% of US consumers are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to a PYMNTS survey. This percentage has risen by +10 points over the last 18 months. This comes as nearly 30% of consumers lost their financial safety net before July 2020 and have struggled since. A similar percentage began facing the same situation over the last 12 months. All while 46% of consumers who once had some financial comfort say they have since lost it and feel overwhelmed by their situation. The US wealth divide is hitting historic levels. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Investors are DUMPING US financial stocks: Investors sold $0.8 billion of financial stocks last week, marking the 8th week of selling in the last 9. The 4-week average of selling hit $0.8 billion, more than 2 standard deviations below the average over the last 17 years. - X user Global Markets Investor

Zions Bank and Western Alliance Bank claimed they were defrauded out of nearly $160M. Zions subsidiary California Bank & Trust claims it lent more than $60M to an investor group that listed 16 properties as collateral; six of those assets were investments under Newport Beach-based MOM CA Investco, which filed for bankruptcy in February. When California Bank & Trust underwrote the loans in 2016 and 2017, the company required lender protections, namely that it would be first in line for repayment if the borrower defaulted and liquidated its assets. California Bank & Trust said it later discovered other lenders actually held liens on several of those same buildings, thus rendering Zions’ protection obsolete when the assets went into liquidation. Western Alliance Bancorp filed a complaint in August, saying the same investor group, led by Gerald Marcil, Andrew Stupin and Deba Shyam, owes it nearly $99M. The bank alleges the group hid the fact that some of the collateral properties were already in foreclosure, in turn undermining the bank’s repayment rights. - X user Nightingale Associates

Debts around the world

“I’m not surprised that credit scores are slipping,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. “Millions of Americans are struggling mightily in the face of stubborn inflation, high interest rates, a difficult job market and overall economic uncertainty — and tough times often force tough decisions.” - CNBC

AMERICA’S DEBT CRISIS EXPLODES: MILLIONS NOW DROWNING IN CAR LOANS, MAXED-OUT CREDIT CARDS AND PERSONAL LOAN DEFAULTS AS FICO SOUNDS THE ALARM ON SOARING DELINQUENCIES - First Squawk

China’s debt BUBBLE is massive: China’s government debt-to-GDP ratio hit a record 93%. Nonfinancial corporate debt stands at 142%, household debt at 60%, and financial corporate debt at 41%. That gives a total debt-to-GDP ratio of 336% - X user Global Markets Investor

JPM: “Oracle’s debt to equity ratio is already 500% compared to 50% for Amazon, 30% for Microsoft and even less at Meta and Google. In other words, the tech capital cycle may be about to change” (Cembalest, Sept 24).

This shift to ~80% fixed long-term debt (from 44% in 2007) shields S&P 500 firms from rising rates, stabilising interest costs and boosting earnings resilience. Analysts like BofA and TIAA project 13-14% EPS growth in 2025, aiding market stability. However, refinancing risks loom if rates remain high, per Moody’s and Goldman Sachs, with default risks at 9.2%. Overall, it supports a positive near-term outlook amid economic uncertainties. - From Grok

The US has had its fastest accumulation of a trillion dollars in debt outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, per PBS

Americans are drowning in credit card debt: US household credit card debt hit a record $1.33 trillion in August. The combined average credit card balance across all age groups is now at a whopping $10,668 PER household. States with the largest average debts in Q2 2025 were Hawaii at $15,100, California at $13,800, and Alaska at $13,600. Other high-debt states include New York at $12,900, Texas at $12,800, and Florida at $12,600. Credit card debt continues to skyrocket. - X user The Kobeissi Letter.

The US leveraged loan market is now on track for its biggest monthly loss since at least 2022. This comes as defaults of First Brands and Tricolor Auto in September have exposed possible weak underwriting standards and growing vulnerabilities in credit markets. The collapse of First Brands alone has triggered over -$4 billion in losses, affecting funds run by Blackstone, PGIM, Franklin Templeton, CIFC, and Wellington. Despite these failures, leveraged loan issuances hit a record +$404 billion in Q3 2025. The leveraged loan market now stands at an estimated $2 TRILLION. Cracks in the credit market are becoming more apparent. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Total US debt reached a record $98.8 trillion in Q2 2025, equal to 324% of GDP. Federal government debt rose to $35.6 trillion in Q2, but the most recent data shows it has reached $37.5 trillion, or 123% of GDP. Nonfinancial corporate debt hit $21.9 trillion, representing 72% of GDP. Financial corporate debt totaled $20.9 trillion, or 69% of GDP. Household debt reached $20.5 trillion, corresponding to 67% of GDP. America has never been this indebted.

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My Investing Muse (27Oct25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

• The American job market faces its deepest pessimism since the 2008–09 Great Recession, per CNN

• A total of 249,152 individual Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings were made in the first nine months of this year in the United States, an increase of 15%, per the American Bankruptcy Institute. - X user Unusual Whales

• Many Hitchcock’s stores are holding 30% off sales and plan to close at the end of October. Some locations will reopen about a month later under the Winn-Dixie brand. - The Street

Initial jobless claims filed by federal workers spiked +121% week-over-week, reaching 7,244 in the week ending October 11th, the highest since the 2019 government shutdown. While the Labor Department has paused its weekly reports, state-level data remains available. The number of federal employees filing for unemployment has jumped +1,200% since the shutdown began on October 1st. Additionally, continuing claims rose +9% from the prior week, to 9,430, the highest in 3.5 years. The government shutdown is in full swing. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

US layoffs are running at RECESSION levels: US employers have announced 946,426 job cuts in 2025, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. This is the 2nd-largest total since the Financial Crisis. Over the last 36 years, only 4 times have seen higher layoffs - X user Global Markets Investor

Over 10% of US small firms said in September their most important problem is poor sales. In the past, it has been a leading indicator for rising unemployment US small firms employ 45.9% of American workers, or ~59 million people. - X user Global Markets Investor

Germany, once the industrial powerhouse, has lost a quarter million MANUFACTURING jobs in 5 years. It now makes only 4 million cars — fewer than what China exports. Stop the war with Russia; get rid of climate change hysteria. Economy should be the #1 priority. - X user S.L. Kanthan

First Brands BANKRUPTCY shakes credit markets: The collapse WIPED OUT $4 billion in leveraged loans held across ~80 CLOs from Blackstone, and others. The sudden failure is a major warning for the broader credit market and leveraged loan sector.

Some US corporate bonds are CRASHING: Natural gas company, New Fortress Energy CRASHED. A subprime auto lender, Tricolor filed for bankruptcy. Auto-parts supplied, First Brands COLLAPSED. Investors lost +60% in EACH CASE.- X user Global Markets Investor

The above are some of the news about debts, closures and bankruptcies.

My final thoughts

Recent reporting from Reuters indicates that China and the United States held productive discussions in Malaysia, suggesting a positive trajectory for de-escalating recent trade tensions. Both nations have expressed optimism regarding a favourable outcome from these engagements.

The coming week is poised to introduce significant, market-moving news. Key events that will shape market sentiment include the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (scheduled for Wednesday, October 29) and Friday’s update on Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (scheduled for Friday, October 31). The PCE data is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and will be a critical consideration in determining future monetary policy adjustments.

In light of increasing concerns regarding affordability, the Federal Reserve’s expanding debt levels, and rising corporate delinquency rates, a prudent and cautionary stance is recommended, with consideration for strategic hedging.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Exxon Mobil(XOM)$

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$