To The Moon

$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$, a stock that has seen significant volatility and attention due to its central role in the AI server market, is scheduled to report its fiscal Q1 2026 results on 04 Nov 2025

The key context for SMCI's Q1 2026 earnings is that the company has already provided a preliminary update that significantly adjusted its revenue expectations for the quarter, largely attributing the shortfall to a shift in customer demand.

The Pre-Earnings Headwind (Revenue Miss)

Preliminary Q1'26 Revenue: The company announced an estimated revenue of $5.0 billion, which is a significant miss.

Original Guidance: The original guidance for Q1'26 revenue was a much higher range of $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion.

Company Explanation: SMCI attributed the shortfall to "design win upgrades" that pushed some expected Q1'26 revenue delivery into the second quarter (Q2'26). This suggests strong long-term demand but execution challenges in meeting the rapidly changing specifications of AI customers.

The Long-Term Tailwinds

Despite the Q1 revenue miss, the company's long-term outlook remains highly optimistic:

Massive New Design Wins: SMCI announced recent design wins exceeding $12 billion, with customers requesting delivery in Q2'26.

Maintained Full-Year Guidance: The company reiterated its full-year revenue expectation of at least $33 billion for Fiscal Year 2026, suggesting that the Q1 miss is seen as a timing issue, not a demand problem.

AI Technology Ramp: The company confirmed robust demand and shipping of new, highly sought-after AI products for major players like Nvidia (GB300, B300) and AMD (355X LC), particularly for liquid-cooled solutions.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Super Micro Computer, a key provider of high-performance server and storage solutions, particularly in the booming AI sector, reported its results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ended June 30, 2025).

Key Performance Highlights:

Sequential Growth: Revenue of $5.8 billion was a strong 25% sequential increase from Q3 FY2025, demonstrating demand momentum.

Full-Year Growth: Full fiscal year 2025 revenue reached $22.0 billion, a significant 47% increase year-over-year.

AI Focus: Demand for next-generation GPU AI platforms (air-cooled and liquid-cooled) was robust, representing over 70% of Q4 revenues.

Customer Expansion: The number of large-scale datacenter customers grew from two in FY2024 to four in FY2025, with plans to add more in FY2026.

Challenges Cited: The company attributed the quarter's revenue shortfall and margin pressure primarily to:

• Specification changes from a major new customer, which delayed revenue recognition.

• Tariff impacts, though measures are being taken to mitigate this.

• Competition from larger server makers leading to pricing pressure.

Lesson Learned from FY2026 Guidance

The main takeaway for investors and the market was the reset of high-flying expectations following the full-year guidance announcement.

The Core Lesson:

The initial market reaction was a sharp sell-off (the stock dropped significantly) because the new official guidance of "at least $33.0 billion" for FY2026 was lower than an earlier, more ambitious figure of up to $40 billion that had been floating around following previous comments and lofty investor expectations.

The key lesson learned is:

High Growth Must Be Measured Against High Expectations: Even strong growth can disappoint if it falls short of an elevated, often unofficial, market narrative.

Super Micro is still guiding for substantial growth—over 50% year-over-year from FY2025's $22 billion in revenue. However, the slightly more conservative target from a company previously associated with hyperbolic growth signals a return to more grounded business forecasting. It suggests that while the AI boom is real and driving tremendous demand, investors need to temper expectations and focus on official, realistic guidance rather than the most aggressive growth scenarios.

The guidance implicitly acknowledges:

1. Supply Constraints/Customer Delays: The difficulty in maintaining an explosive, consistent quarter-over-quarter trajectory as manufacturing scales and large customers navigate their own deployment schedules.

2. Margin Reality: The intensely competitive nature of the server business, where gross margins are under pressure despite high demand.

The company's long-term strategy remains focused on its AI solutions, liquid cooling technology, and expanding its high-margin enterprise and IoT business segments.

Key Metrics for Investors to Watch

Given the pre-announced revenue figure, the earnings report on November 4, 2025 (After Market Close) will be less about the top-line number and more about the qualitative and forward-looking data.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Price Target

Based on 18 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Super Micro Computer in the last 3 months. The average price target is $47.35 with a high forecast of $67.00 and a low forecast of $15.00. The average price target represents a -8.87% change from the last price of $51.96.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities Post-Earnings

Trading around SMCI earnings is highly volatile and speculative, but the current situation presents a unique "low-bar/high-expectation" scenario.

Bullish Opportunity (Potential Upside)

The biggest opportunity would be a "better-than-feared" reaction if the following occurs:

• Strong Q2 and Full-Year Guidance Confirmation: The CEO's remarks and Q2 guidance strongly validate that the Q1 revenue miss was purely a timing issue. A Q2 guidance significantly above consensus, combined with a firm restatement of the $33B FY2026 target, could trigger a sharp relief rally.

• Gross Margin Surprise: If the company manages to report a Gross Margin that is stable or even improved despite the product transitions and revenue shift, it would be a strong sign of pricing power and efficiency.

Bearish Opportunity (Potential Downside)

A significant sell-off could occur if:

FY 2026 Revenue Target is Reduced: Any sign of a cut or even a slight downgrade to the "at least $33 billion" full-year revenue target would be a massive negative, signaling that the Q1 issue is more than just timing.

Weak Q2 2026 Guidance: If the Q2 guidance does not adequately compensate for the $1-$2 billion Q1 revenue shortfall, the market will lose confidence in the full-year target, leading to a drop.

Margin Erosion: A noticeable decline in Gross Margin could suggest the company is taking on lower-margin business to move inventory or facing higher-than-expected costs for the AI server ramp.

In summary, the stock has already priced in a weak Q1 revenue number. The short-term price action will be driven almost entirely by the commentary on the forward-looking guidance (especially Q2'26 and the full FY2026 target) and the outlook on margins and the $12B backlog execution.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

SMCI bulls have taken over and looks to build the upside continuation, and with positive RSI momentum, we are looking for potential surge if SMCI could show a significant forward-looking guidance especially for FY 2026.

But we need to understand how SMCI could be navigating its $12B backlog execution, if investors and market is not confident, we could see some volatility before its earnings.

Summary

Super Micro Computer is expected to report its fiscal Q1 2026 results with preliminary revenue significantly missing initial company guidance.

Preliminary Revenue: SMCI announced preliminary Q1 revenue of $5 billion, which is substantially below its original guidance of $6 billion to $7 billion.

Reason for Miss: The shortfall is primarily attributed to customer-driven "design win upgrades" that pushed revenue recognition for certain large AI projects into the second quarter (Q2 2026).

Outlook: Despite the near-term miss, the company reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of at least $33 billion, citing accelerating customer demand for its AI solutions and over $12 billion in new design wins set for Q2 delivery.

Analyst Consensus: Analysts generally expect a sharp year-over-year decline in Q1 adjusted EPS, but the consensus view on the stock remains a cautious "Hold" due to the strong long-term AI-driven demand offsetting the short-term execution challenges.

The market focus will be on management's commentary regarding the timeline for the deferred AI project revenue and the sustainability of gross margins.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think SMCI would provide a significant outlook for FY 2026 and could provide investors with confidence to load this stock.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.