To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 10Nov25)

Public Holidays

• There are no public holidays scheduled this week for the United States, Hong Kong, China, or Singapore.

Key Economic Data & Events

Inflation & Monetary Indicators

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): The CPI data is a key event. The previous year-over-year (YoY) CPI stood at 3.0%.

Bond Market Sentiment

• Bond Auctions: Important datasets will be derived from the 10-Year Note Auction and the 30-Year Bond Auction.

• The results of the bond auctions reflect market sentiment.

• A continued increase in bond interest rates (yields) suggests the market is demanding a higher return on investment for these bonds. This demand for higher returns can occur regardless of the current Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

Labor Market

• Initial Jobless Claims: The previous reading was 218,000. Any significant change from this figure will serve as an important reference for the current state of the job market.

Energy Sector

• Crude Oil Inventory: The previous reported crude oil inventory stood at $\text{5.202 million barrels}$.

• A positive inventory build-up (higher stocks) can be interpreted by the market as a sign of lacklustre demand for oil products. This data point is typically viewed as a precursor for market consumption trends in the coming months.

Earnings Calendar (10Nov25)

EARNINGS

We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Monday, Occidental, Cisco, Disney and Sea Limited.

Let us look at Sea Limited in detail.

Market Performance and Outlook

• Year-over-Year Stock Performance: The stock price has experienced a significant increase, rising 60.3% from a year ago.

• Analyst Consensus and Price Target:

• The consensus analyst sentiment is a Strong Buy rating.

• The established price target of $196.56 implies a substantial 31.16% potential upside from the current share price.

• Technical Analysis: Current technical indicators are recommending a Strong Sell rating, which presents a divergence from fundamental analyst sentiment.

Revenue and Profitability Trends

• Revenue Growth: Revenue has demonstrated aggressive expansion, growing from $292 million in 2015 to $16.82 billion in 2024. The 10-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for revenue is 59.2%.

• Gross Profit Growth: Gross profit shows a parallel growth trajectory, increasing from $180 million in 2015 to $7.2 billion in 2024.

• Operating Profit Transformation: The company has successfully transitioned its operating performance from a $$83 million loss in 2015 to a positive $662 million profit in 2024.

• Net Profit: The company has reported a net profit for both the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years after years of losses.

Valuation and Efficiency Concerns

• High Valuation: The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at a steep 75.8, suggesting a premium valuation.

Asset Growth and Debt:

• Total assets have grown at a 10-year CAGR of 55.1%.

• The Debt-to-Assets ratio of 0.2 is not considered overly concerning.

Efficiency Metrics (10-Year Median): There are specific concerns regarding historical efficiency metrics:

• The 10-year median Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin is -11.3%.

• The 10-year median Return on Assets (ROA) is -24.9%.

Sea Limited (SE) Earnings and Investment Assessment

The upcoming earnings forecast for Sea Limited is optimistic, projecting Revenue of $5.69 billion and Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.02. This suggests expectations for increased revenue and profitability in the forthcoming report, indicating a positive trajectory for the company’s financial performance.

Investment Considerations and Strategy

Valuation and Profitability Concerns

It is prudent to note the existing concerns regarding the company’s valuation. The high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio signifies that the market is assigning a substantial premium to the company’s future growth potential. This valuation premium implies a higher degree of risk, as the stock is priced for aggressive growth. Furthermore, the concern over historical profitability is understandable. While high-growth technology companies often prioritise market share over immediate earnings, the recent transition to positive net income is a crucial and positive development.

I prefer to monitor the business for this season.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (10Nov25)

Momentum and Trend Indicators

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is on a downtrend, which signals a bearish outlook.

• EMA (Exponential Moving Averages) Convergence: The EMA lines are converging. This suggests that the current uptrend may be losing steam and indicates a potential change in the existing trend.

Moving Averages (MA) and Support

• Overall Trend (MA 50 & 200): Both the 50-day and 200-day Moving Average lines remain on an uptrend. This sustains a bullish outlook across both the short and long term.

• Key Short-Term Support: The $\text{MA 50}$ line is identified as a key short-term support level.

• Monitoring Focus: It is necessary to monitor the candlestick movement. If the price (candlestick) moves beneath the MA 50 line, it would signal a potential breakdown of this support.

• Potential Bearish Signal: A candlestick break below the MA 50 line would also signify an increase in short-term bearish sentiment.

Volume and Money Flow

• CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) Reading: The CMF is at 0.06. While this positive value indicates that there is currently more buying volume than selling volume, the reading is very close to zero.

• CMF Zero-Line Cross: The CMF line recently crossed the zero line. This movement signifies a recent shift in the balance between the overall buying and selling volume, indicating a change in the money flow dynamics.

When examining the technical analysis indicators for the S&P 500 on a daily interval, it is evident that the overall outlook is currently bearish. Out of a total of 20 technical indicators considered, 7 are signalling a “buy” rating, while 13 are indicating a “sell” rating. This distribution suggests that the market sentiment leans more toward selling pressure at this time. As a result, the aggregated technical analysis for the S&P 500 reflects a “sell” rating, highlighting caution for investors in the short term.

Candlestick Pattern Analysis

Short-Term Outlook

A recent Engulfing Bearish pattern on the weekly chart signals caution for traders, suggesting a possible market pullback toward 6,500. Previous bullish Doji stars are outweighed by this reversal risk, making a cautious approach advisable.

Long-Term Outlook

The long-term trend remains upward due to the rally from August to November, peaking at 6,728. However, patterns like Three Black Crows and Falling Three Methods indicate volatility. Bullish engulfing formations in January and March show continued strength. Watch for any break below 6,400, which could signal a shift in trend.

Conclusion

Given the current technical indicators and recent candlestick patterns, the outlook for the coming week appears bearish. The presence of an Engulfing Bearish pattern on the weekly chart serves as a strong reversal signal, indicating that the market may experience a pullback in the near term. This pattern, confirmed four candles ago, suggests heightened caution for traders and investors.

News and my thoughts from the past week (10Nov25)

Real-estate giant Blackstone is liquidating a major investment gone wrong: a $1.8 billion wager on senior housing that has saddled the firm with more than $600 million in losses. - WSJ

The 50-year mortgage is the triumph of debt over affordability. When the median age of home ownership is 40 years old, there is no retirement till 90.

Oracle’s 5-year Credit Default Swap spiked to 81 basis pts, the highest in 2 YEARS. Credit traders are buying protection against Oracle defaulting on its debt at the fastest pace since 2023. Can Oracle sustain its aggressive AI buildout? - X user Global Markets Investor

The Strippers have confirmed it. We are in a recession? - Yahoo News

“Leverage among hedge funds is the highest it has been since regulators started tracking the data more than a decade ago, a dynamic the Federal Reserve noted Friday as part of a broader set of vulnerabilities it is monitoring within the U.S. financial system.” The use of leverage over the past couple of years has increased across a range of strategies and supported significant positions in key markets, such as Treasury securities, interest rate derivatives, and equities,” the report said. - Barrons

Professional investors sold $5.1 BILLION in single tech stocks last week, near the most on RECORD. As a % of the technology sector’s market cap, this was the largest outflow since July 2023 and one of the biggest in 10 YEARS. - X user Global Markets Investor

Commercial Real Estate - Office CMBS Delinquency Rate jumps to 11.7%, the highest level in history - BarChart

Investors sold -$10.0 billion of US equities last week, marking their 6th weekly sale over the last 8. US single stocks saw near-record outflows at -$10.9 billion. This was driven by tech, which posted its largest outflow as a % of the sector’s market cap since July 2023. Institutional investors led the move, selling -$7.6 billion, the 2nd-largest outflow on record and the largest since September 2015. At the same time, retail investors bought +$800 million, marking their 4th consecutive weekly purchase. Retail remains very bullish. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

The number of US “zombie” companies is surging. The number of zombie companies in the Russell 3000 jumped +83 in October, to 639, the highest since December 2021. Zombie companies are firms that cannot generate enough profit to cover their interest payments and are staying afloat only through continued borrowing. Many of the firms that entered zombie status in October were in health care and biotech, sectors now struggling with soaring costs and declining federal support. To put this into perspective, the recent peak was 749 zombie firms in March 2021. Many small companies are struggling. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Supply Chain News

Container shipping traffic from China to the US is in freefall. The cargo vessel count from China to the US has dropped to 41, the lowest since February 2024. The number of large cargo ships has declined by -30, or 42%, over the last 3 weeks. This is well below the average of ~60 over the last 18 months. As a result, total cargo volumes have HALVED to ~300,000 TEUs, where one TEU equals a standard shipping container, the lowest since at least January 2024. Combined cargo volumes from all major Asian exporters have also fallen to ~700,000 TEUs, the lowest since February 2024. U.S.-China trade is rapidly slowing. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

This is a high-frequency chart of the goods economy, and the index of the number of goods shipped through the US domestic economy. Down 15% YoY. - X user Craig Fuller

Freightwaves CEO Craig Fuller: “Well, we should be worried. The goods economy, certain portions of the goods economy are collapsing right now. So, year over year trucking volumes, this is really predominance of freight that moves across the United States, is down 17%”. “But when you look at the industrial sectors, or the the freight that moves over the long haul, this is energy, automotive, housing and manufacturing, we’re down 30% year over year, which is very great financial crisis, levels of concern.” - CNBC

Supply Chain is the blood of the economy, and is used to forecast the consumption of goods, especially.

Debts

We’re in a global debt crisis. To see that, don’t look at 30-year yields, which get pulled down by falling short-term yields. Look at 10y20y forward yields (red) that strip out short-term yields. Those are up everywhere and at alarming levels in places like Japan, UK and France. - X user Robin Brooks

Margin debt just hit $1.1 trillion highest in history.

US consumers are DEFAULTING at a CRISIS pace. Student loan SERIOUS (90+ days) delinquencies EXPLODED to 14.3% in Q3 2025, the highest on record. Auto loan delinquencies rose to 3.0%, the highest since 2010. Credit card delinquencies hit 7.1%, near the highest in 14 YEARS. - X user Global Markets Investor

Refinancing pressures compound the problem of fiscal management. By the end of 2025, about a third of marketable debt, worth US$9.2 trillion, would have matured, with a further US$9 trillion maturing in 2026. - Deloitte

US household debt surged +$197 BILLION in Q3 2025, to a record $18.59 trillion. This puts total household debt up +$642 billion over the last 12 months. The surge was driven by mortgage debt, which rose +$137 billion, to a record $13.07 trillion. Credit card debt climbed +$24 billion, to $1.23 trillion, an all-time high. Student loans jumped +$15 billion, to $1.65 trillion, also a record. Auto loans remained flat at $1.66 trillion but rose +$11 billion YoY. Americans are piling on debt at a rapid pace. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

My Investing Muse (10Nov25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

• CNBC: “Announced corporate job cuts surging past 1 million so far this year, with 153,000 new layoffs just in October, according to Challenger. That is the worst October since 2003.”

• The FAA officially began cutting 700 flights PER DAY across 40 airports. Airports are now facing a shortage of 3,500 air traffic controllers, with 4+ MILLION passengers impacted. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

• Co-pilot is part of the transition. Transition to more automation (replacing humans) is one of the goals. What’s going to be the story now, CEOs?

From mid-2022 to now, the Bay Area has shed 80,000 tech jobs while supposedly being at the centre of the AI revolution. San Francisco alone dropped 39,600 positions in two years, an 11% collapse. Most of these jobs got permanently deleted. Entry-level employment fell 13% relative to experienced workers across the industry, and postings for junior roles are down 35% since early 2023.​ - X user Stock Market News

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Is AI solely responsible for the layoffs in 2025?

The above are some of the news about debts, closures and bankruptcies.

My final thoughts

Some approached investing using fundamentals, some with technicals and some with macro. Maybe a mix of the above with some psychology. May you understand your goals, investing personality, time horizon and risk tolerance so that you can be aware of your strengths and avoid your pitfalls.

Companies need $3 trillion to $8 trillion by 2030 for AI data centre capacity. In an accelerated growth scenario, that’s $7.9 trillion total: $4.7 trillion for IT equipment, $2.6 trillion for infrastructure, and $600 billion for power. Even in a constrained scenario, you’re looking at $3.7 trillion. - X user Stock Market news

For America to remain competitive, it needs to invest at least $3 trillion by 2030. With Federal debts at $38 trillion, they need to incur more debt to build these AI-related data centres. They will need to invest in energy, infrastructure and resources to support the data centre ecosystem. Will it be possible?

Are we watching a global reset in slow motion?

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Sea Ltd(SE)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$