To The Moon

$Intuit(INTU)$ upcoming fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, which is expected to be released on Thursday, November 20, 2025, after the market closes.

Q1 FY2026 Earnings Analysis and Expectations

The first fiscal quarter (ending October 31st) is typically a slower period for Intuit compared to the tax-heavy Q3. Investors will be primarily focused on the growth trajectory of its subscription-based services and how management's focus on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the mid-market is translating into results.

Consensus Estimates and Guidance

Intuit has already reaffirmed its Q1 and full-year FY2026 guidance (as of September 2025). Meeting or exceeding these re-affirmed figures will be key.

The Q1 non-GAAP EPS is significantly higher than the GAAP EPS guidance ($1.19 - $1.26), primarily due to stock-based compensation.

Intuit (INTU) Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Intuit reported its results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending July 31, 2025) on Thursday, August 21, 2025.

Performance Highlights (The Beat)

Strong Growth Across Segments: The company delivered an impressive beat on both the top and bottom lines, driven by its subscription and platform ecosystem strategy.

Global Business Solutions (QuickBooks): Revenue grew 18%. The key Online Ecosystem Revenue grew 21%. Excluding the Mailchimp business (which has been a headwind), the core Online Ecosystem revenue growth was even stronger at 26%.

Credit Karma: This segment was a major bright spot, with revenue growing robustly at 34% (to ), driven by strength in personal loans and credit cards.

Full-Year FY2025: Total revenue grew 16%, and Non-GAAP EPS grew 19%, indicating excellent execution and operating leverage.

Market Reaction and the Lesson Learned from Guidance

Despite the exceptional beat, the stock initially declined significantly (falling over 6% in the subsequent trading session). This reaction was entirely driven by the Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance which was perceived as conservative relative to the market's high expectations.

The Lesson Learned: High Valuation Demands Aggressive Guidance

The primary lesson from the Q4 2025 reaction is that for premium-valued growth stocks like Intuit, merely delivering double-digit growth is not enough; the guidance must reflect accelerating momentum or, at minimum, a higher rate than the market is already pricing in.

Slight Deceleration is a Negative Catalyst: While the FY2026 revenue growth is strong for a company of Intuit's size, it represented a slight deceleration from the growth achieved in FY2025. Investors who bid the stock to its premium valuation were expecting a forecast closer to to justify the multiple.

Focus on Segment Weakness: The guidance was heavily influenced by two specific areas:

• Mailchimp: Continued sluggish performance from the Mailchimp platform (part of Global Business Solutions) acted as a drag on the overall growth forecast.

• Consumer/TurboTax: Softer growth expectations for the Consumer segment (TurboTax) were also factored in, although the company highlighted strong growth in the higher-value TurboTax Live service.

The "Beat and Raise" is Mandatory: The market requires a "beat" on the current quarter AND an "aggressive raise" to the full-year forecast. Intuit delivered the beat but provided an outlook that, while strong in an absolute sense, was not aggressive enough to satisfy growth-focused investors who were looking for a significant catalyst.

The market's message was clear: at a high multiple, Intuit must project growth that is consistently accelerating, or at least sustaining, its premium growth rate across all segments, or the stock will face downward pressure.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

The headline numbers (Revenue and Adjusted EPS) are important, but the true drivers of the stock price post-earnings will be the underlying growth metrics for its key segments, particularly the Global Business Solutions (QuickBooks) and Credit Karma performance.

1. Global Business Solutions Group (QuickBooks)

This is Intuit's largest segment by revenue and the driver of its mid-market expansion.

Online Ecosystem Revenue Growth: This tracks the growth of QuickBooks Online, Payments, and Payroll. Management has a strong focus here.

Watch for: Consistency in the approx 20% growth range seen in prior periods.

QuickBooks Online Accounting Subscribers: The total number of paying subscribers is a crucial long-term health indicator.

QuickBooks Online Services Revenue (Excluding Mailchimp): Mailchimp has been a drag on the segment's growth. The performance of the core QuickBooks services (payments, payroll, time tracking, etc.) excluding Mailchimp will show the true momentum of the platform.

2. Credit Karma

This is Intuit's consumer finance platform. The performance of this segment is sensitive to the broader economic environment and interest rates.

Credit Karma Revenue Growth: Look for growth rates in the low to mid-teens (company guidance for the full year is 10-13% growth). A beat here could signal an improving consumer lending/financial health environment.

3. Full-Year FY2026 Guidance

The most significant market moves often come not from the Q1 beat/miss, but from changes to the company's outlook for the entire fiscal year.

Reaffirmation or Revision of Full-Year Guidance: Since the initial full-year guidance in Q4 FY2025 was viewed as slightly cautious (causing a stock dip), an upward revision to the FY2026 guidance would likely be a major catalyst for the stock. The current full-year revenue growth guidance is $12%-13%.

Intuit (INTU) Price Target

Based on 28 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Intuit in the last 3 months. The average price target is $809.57 with a high forecast of $971.00 and a low forecast of $600.00. The average price target represents a 24.60% change from the last price of $649.73.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities Post-Earnings

Trading around earnings is inherently high-risk, as Intuit's stock can be volatile due to its premium valuation.

Key Factors for Short-Term Movement:

Guidance Revision: The stock's reaction will likely be dictated by the full-year FY2026 guidance.

Bullish Scenario: A material increase in the full-year revenue and/or EPS guidance (especially if driven by QuickBooks or Credit Karma momentum) could lead to a significant positive reaction.

Bearish Scenario: A reaffirmation of guidance, even with a Q1 beat, may result in a flat-to-negative reaction, as the market may already be pricing in the reaffirmation and seeking a higher forecast (as seen after the Q4 2025 report). A cut to full-year guidance would be a major sell-off catalyst.

Credit Karma Surprise: Since Credit Karma is tied to the macro-economic environment, a strong beat or miss in its revenue growth could be an unexpected catalyst.

Historical Pattern: Historically, Intuit's stock has shown a tendency for positive one-day returns post-earnings (positive in about 71% of the last five years of reports). However, this is not a guarantee and the magnitude of the move is crucial.

Potential Strategy Consideration (Not Investment Advice):

Contrarian Play on Guidance: Given the prior slight negative reaction to "weak" (albeit still double-digit) FY2026 guidance, if the company simply meets or beats Q1 estimates AND raises the full-year guidance, the stock could see a strong short-term upward trend.

Focus on the Implied Move: Options market activity can often give an indication of the expected price movement (implied volatility). For the upcoming earnings, the market has historically priced in an expected move for INTU (for example, in a prior quarter it was $\approx 6.6\%$). If the stock moves significantly more than the options market expected, it represents a substantial surprise and a trading opportunity.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The options market overestimated INTU stocks earnings move 50% of the time in the last 12 quarters. The predicted move after earnings announcement was ±5.3% on average vs an average of the actual earnings moves of 5.8% (in absolute terms). This shows you that INTU tended to be more volatile than the options market predicted for the earnings stock price reaction.

As we can see also from the negative RSI momentum and though INTU has not suffered significant decline, but the bears are in control and if INTU were to provide a negative guidance, we could see a selloff after its earnings release.

Investors might want to watch the potential guidance raise for full-year which could be driven by strong QuickBooks or Credit Karma momentum.

Summary

Intuit (INTU) is expected to report its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on November 20, 2025. The market's focus will be less on the Q1 beat/miss and more on the reaffirmation or revision of the full-year FY2026 guidance.

Consensus and Guidance

• Revenue: Expected growth of (to ) based on the company's reaffirmed guidance.

• Adjusted EPS: Reaffirmed guidance range of (Non-GAAP).

Key Metrics to Watch

Investors will look for strength in the high-growth, recurring revenue segments:

1. Global Business Solutions (QuickBooks) Online Ecosystem Revenue: Growth in the range is expected, driven by subscriptions and services (excluding Mailchimp).

2. Credit Karma Revenue: Performance is sensitive to macroeconomics. Look for growth in the low to mid-teens (full-year guided at ).

3. Full-Year FY2026 Outlook: The stock will primarily react to any upward revision of the current conservative full-year revenue growth guidance of .

Short-Term Trading Opportunity

A short-term upside catalyst would be a material raise to the full-year guidance, especially if driven by strong QuickBooks or Credit Karma momentum. Simply meeting guidance may result in a flat-to-negative reaction, as the stock’s premium valuation prices in a higher growth expectation.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think INTU could stage a short-term upside if INTU could provide a significant raise to its full-year guidance, which could be driven by strong QuickBooks or Credit Karma momentum.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.