To The Moon

$META$
Key News:

• Wins key antitrust lawsuit—court rules company did not monopolize social media (Bullish)

• Chief Revenue Officer John Hegeman announces departure, raising management stability concerns (Bearish)

• Former Chief Scientist Yann LeCun publicly questions internal AI strategy, talent drain sparks innovation worries (Bearish)

• Stock closed at $597.69, down 0.72% on the day—mixed news sentiment overall.

Options Analysis:

• This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): IV 39.81% (65th percentile), pricing in elevated volatility. Key technical support at $580 (Aug low trendline extension), resistance at $615 (Oct rebound high).

• Option chain shows $595 Put concentration (OI 1,829), $620 Call acting as overhead supply.

• Next Week (Nov 21 Expiry): IV dips to 38% but remains elevated; expected range $570–630.

• Put/Call Ratio 1.91 shows slight bullish bias. Focus on $600 Call (OI 4,526) and $580 Put (OI 5,843) for key battle lines.

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Put: $META 20251128 580.0 PUT$ 
  Premium: ~$8.60, OI 1,829 (solid liquidity), Probability of Profit 72.36%
  Logic: $580 is strong support; sell Put to collect premium. Stop if stock breaks below $575.

• Bull Call Spread:
  Buy $META 20251121 590.0 CALL$  + Sell $META 20251121 620.0 CALL$ 
  Net Cost: ~$11.70, Reward/Risk ≈ 2:1
  Logic: Bets on short-term rebound toward $620 resistance. Stop if stock breaks $580.

Note: Adjust entry based on intraday price action; control position size and risk.

$AAPL$
Key News:

• Target Raise: Arete raises Apple price target from $277 to $305, maintains Buy rating, reflecting institutional optimism about AI integration into phone ecosystem.

• iPhone 17 Sales Strong: China sales surge 37% in first month, helping Apple regain 20% market share—near-term demand outlook improves.

• Management Rumors: CEO Tim Cook may step down in 2026, but stock shows little reaction—market focused more on product pipeline.

Options Analysis:

• This Week (Nov 21 Expiry): Expected range $265–275. $270 Call shows high OI (7,978), $265 Put sees active block trades (3,146)—key support/resistance.

• Next Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range $260–280. IV drops to 24–25%, time value widens range; $275 Call (OI 13,310) is key resistance.

• Support: $265 (Put OI cluster + short-term MA)

• Resistance: $275 (Oct high + max Call OI)

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Call: $AAPL 20251121 275.0 CALL$ 
  Logic: Stock near resistance; IV in neutral zone allows premium capture (~$1.50), win rate ~85%
  Stop: Close if stock breaks and holds above $275.

• Buy Put: $AAPL 20251128 265.0 PUT$ 
  Logic: Hedges pullback risk; $265 support + low cost (~$3.20), limited IV upside
  Stop: Exit if stock holds above $270 or breaks below $260.

Note: This week focus on premium selling; next week add defensive Puts to balance risk/reward.

$AMZN$
Key News:

• EU Antitrust Probe: European Commission launches investigation into AWS and Microsoft Azure, potential business restrictions/fines weigh on stock.

• Rating Downgrade: Rothschild & Co cuts AMZN from Buy to Neutral; stock down 4.43% on Nov 19, volume 25.2M shares (avg 45.9M).

• Bond Issuance & AI: Amazon issues $15B in bonds for AI/infrastructure—first bond sale in three years; Bezos co-founds AI firm Project Prometheus with $620M funding.

Options Analysis:

• This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range $215–230. IV 40.6% (78.8th percentile), pricing in near-term volatility.

• Next Week (Dec 5 Expiry): Expected range $210–240. IV eases but stays elevated; time value extends range.

• Support: $220 (recent congestion), $215 (Put OI cluster)

• Resistance: $230 (Call OI concentration), $235 (prior support turned resistance)

• Sentiment: Put/Call Ratio 2.01 shows bullish tilt, but block trades in $215–220 Puts indicate hedging.

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Put: $AMZN 20251128 215.0 PUT$ 
  Premium: ~$3.00
  Logic: $215 is strong support, high OI (2,416), Probability of Profit >93% if price holds.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $212 (support fails).

• Bull Call Spread:
  Buy $AMZN 20251205 220.0 CALL$  ($4.30) + Sell $AMZN 20251205 235.0 CALL$  ($0.45)
  Net Cost: $3.85, Max Profit: $15 (235–220 spread)
  Logic: Bets on rebound to $235 resistance; selling higher Call reduces cost.
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $215.

Risk Note: Volatility may rise due to probe and rating; control size and use stops.

$TSLA$
Key News:

• Sales Decline: Jan–Sep 2025 China sales 433k units, down 6% YoY; market share shrinks ~5 percentage points, indicating rising competition.

• Divergent Views: Stifel raises target to $508 (+5%), bullish on FSD and Robotaxi; some investors worry about Musk's growing control and China weakness.

• Big Trade: Bill Gates closes 8-year Tesla short, sells Microsoft stock—may impact sentiment.

Options Analysis:

• This Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Expected range $380–430. IV 61.6% (1.15x HV), market bets on post-earnings bounce but technicals weak near-term.

• Next Week (Dec 5 Expiry): Range expands to $370–440. Theta decay + event risk keep IV elevated.

• Support: $390 (Put OI cluster + block Put sales), historical dip-buying zone

• Resistance: $430 (Call OI concentration, prior high breakout level)

• Sentiment: Put/Call Ratio 1.25 leans bullish, but block sales of $500 Put (Nov 21) show institutional caution.

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Put: $TSLA 20251128 390.0 PUT$ 
  Logic: $390 strong support, OI 3,384, Probability of Profit 79.2%, fast time decay
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $380 (technical breakdown).

• Buy Call: $TSLA 20251205 430.0 CALL$ 
  Logic: Break above $430 could accelerate move; IV 62.6% provides elasticity, controlled risk
  Stop: Close if stock falls to $410 (resistance-turned-support fails).

Risk Note: Watch China sales data and Fed policy; keep position size <5%.

$PLTR$
Key News:

• PwC UK Partnership Expansion (Nov 19): Multi-year deal, millions in investment—PLTR to provide AI/data solutions for PwC UK clients including NHS, may drive long-term revenue.

• Stock Under Pressure: PLTR down 2.29% on Nov 18, broke 50-day MA, ~6.5% loss over past week; high valuation concerns (forward P/E >100x), Michael Burry heavily short.

• Defense Growth Expectations: PLTR’s AI military data systems drove 20x market cap gain in 2 years, but integration capability doubts remain.

Options Analysis:

• Current Price: $167.33, IV 66.19% (40.8th percentile), Put/Call Ratio 0.93—balanced positioning.

• Support: $160 (recent low), $170 (Put OI cluster)

• Resistance: $180 (Nov high), $185 (Call OI concentration)

• This Week (Nov 21 Expiry): Range $160–175, high IV reflects event risk.

• Next Week (Nov 28 Expiry): Range $155–185, time value extends swing potential.

• Market Signal: $170 Put (Nov 21) OI 8,582; $170 Put (Dec 19) block sales indicate institutional bottom-fishing.

Strategy Ideas:

• Sell Put: $PLTR 20251121 160.0 PUT$ 
  Logic: $160 strong support, OI 4,689, premium selling, win rate 91.03% (ITM prob 8.97%)
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $158 (support fails).

• Buy Call: $PLTR 20251128 180.0 CALL$ 
  Logic: Break above $180 may trigger short covering; OI 4,028, IV 62.68% offers elasticity
  Stop: Close if stock breaks $175 (technical weakness).

Risk Note: Watch Dec Fed decision impact on tech valuations; enforce strict stops.