[Discussion] How Do You Tell When a Market Armageddon Is Coming?
Some say that a market crash is the best opportunity for ordinary people to make money. Most retail investors have small capital and average trading skills, so they rarely make significant profits in normal markets. But a crash is different — after a major plunge or even a 50% wipeout, going all-in can lead to outsized gains.
But how can you tell whether something is truly a market crash? And when should you start bottom-fishing?
For most investors, the biggest question during a downturn is when to buy the dip.
If you buy too early, the volatility will shred your nerves; buy too late, and you miss the bottom — or hesitate to buy during the rebound. Either way, you end up making nothing.
Some say sentiment is the key to judging whether it’s time to bottom-fish and whether the situation qualifies as a crash.
Today, the fear index for the market has already reached 7 — extreme fear. But back in April, extreme fear dropped as low as 4. So does that mean we haven’t bottomed yet?
If we really repeat April, the downside could be much worse. And for now, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is only down about 8% from its high and still up 14% year-to-date, which hardly counts as a crash.
Others say you can judge it by watching your friends or your stock-trading groups.
At the start of a decline, everyone still blames the CEO or curses at the market. But once most investors are deep in losses, out of cash, and too defeated to complain, that’s when the bottom is in.
So some believe you should always keep at least 50% of your funds available — ready for the next real crash.
Although the market is dropping sharply right now, the scale of the decline still doesn’t look like what we saw in April.
So how do you know when a true market crash has begun?
And which indicators can help you pick the bottom?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins!
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我也观察股票组的情绪。在衰退初期，人们仍然咆哮并指责首席执行官。真正的底部往往出现在所有人都安静下来的时候——当损失很深，没有人有精力抱怨的时候。这种沉默是比任何指数都更强烈的信号，而我们还没有到那一步。
所以在这一点上，我不认为这是一次真正的崩溃。下降幅度很大，但缺乏明显的投降迹象。为了找到真正的底部，我寻找极度恐惧、投资者沉默、被迫抛售和非理性超卖的价格。在这些出现之前，我会保持耐心。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG
While our fear is valid, history - that relentless teacher whispers a different story. It reminds us that the markets always go up in the long run.
Our goal isn't to perfectly time the market armaggedon or to pinpoint the absolute bottom. The futility of that task would shred anyone's nerves. Buying too early feels like a gut punch. Buying too late means missing the opportunity.
The good news? We don't have to choose.
Wisdom lies not in the timing but in the process. Our mission is to focus on what we can control - our emotions & our actions.
This is where the quiet, consistent power of dollar cost averaging comes in. Our patience & discipline will be the things we look back with pride when the sun shines on the market again.
@Tiger_SG @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
市场崩盘的关键指标包括估值过高、债务水平上升、加息、收益率曲线倒挂、极端的投资者情绪以及经济基本面疲软，如GDP增长缓慢、失业率上升和企业盈利下降
要确定市场底部，请注意极度恐惧、表明投降的高交易量以及关键股票或指数的复苏迹象
最有效的方法不是试图把握市场时机，而是利用这些指标进行风险管理，识别警告信号何时指向风险顶部，何时底部指标表明投降
标签：
@Huat99
@Snowwhite
可以帮助抄底的指标：
-RSI低于20
-VIX高于30
-价格走势显示趋势触及先前的阻力位。
第二阶段：在第一次技术反弹后，再下跌几天-1%至-3%..
This time round, it seems like market sentiments have cooled and everyone is slowly following to trend to cash out, and likely some are done in panic to try and catch whatever profit they still have.
It can be a good time to keep buying as the dip happens, speculating it feels silly lest you miss out on a good deal.
第一，情绪是否麻木。不是恐慌，而是“连抱怨的力气都没有”。
第二，是否出现被迫卖出。比如 ETF 折价、融资断头、基金被赎到崩。
第三，优质股是否被无差别砍价。龙头公司跌到估值极端，这通常是末段信号。