History Says: Will Thanksgiving Week Break the Four-Year Pattern?
History shows that Thanksgiving week doesn’t usually rise for four consecutive years… but will this year be different?
After last week’s steep sell-off, U.S. equities staged a rapid sentiment reversal within just a few days. For two consecutive trading sessions, Federal Reserve officials boosted expectations for a December rate cut, sending the probability surging to 80%. Tech stocks rebounded sharply, with $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ posting its best single-day gain since May. Crypto also rallied to 87,793.
With the Thanksgiving holiday arriving this week, how does the market typically perform during Thanksgiving week?
Thanksgiving-week S&P 500 performance over the past 20 years: It ended positive in 13 of those years.
The Statistical Pattern: 2025 leans toward “unlikely to complete four straight Thanksgiving-week gains”
Looking back at the past 20 years, the S&P 500 rose in 13 Thanksgiving weeks—overall a seasonally warm period. But there is a rarely discussed yet highly important pattern:
The S&P 500 has never risen for four consecutive Thanksgiving weeks.
And since 2022, 2023, and 2024 have already logged gains, the statistical tendency for 2025 leans toward a pullback.
However, VIX sends a reversal signal
Historically, when the previous week’s $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closes in the 20s, the setup actually leans bullish for Thanksgiving week.
Last week VIX closed at 23. This week it quickly fell below the critical 20 level, hitting a low of 18.56. Seen this way, falling volatility suggests that a strong rebound after last week’s sell-off is certainly possible.
2025’s Déjà Vu: Echoes of 2018
The 2025 market environment is strikingly similar to 2018:
– The same Trump–Powell tensions.
– The same mixed signals from the Fed—neither fully dovish nor fully hawkish.
– The same year-end macro uncertainty.
In 2018, Thanksgiving week saw a roughly –2% decline under similar conditions, followed by a deep downturn in December.
How do you view this week's market? Will the rally continue, or will we see a Friday pullback?
With expectations of a December Fed rate cut and quantitative tightening potentially ending in December—Is last week’s sell-off already behind us?
Is now a good time to get in?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins, stock and options vouchers!
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also, a time to balance portfolio.
well, never know how nthe market will swing as sometime it may surprise you [Serious] [Serious] [Serious]
也就是说，波动率指数 $芝加哥期权交易所 Volatility Index(VIX)$ 从23跌至20以下给出了明确的看涨信号。波动性下降历来支持感恩节周走强，随着12月降息预期升至80%，市场情绪正在迅速改善。如果美联储基调保持鸽派，涨势仍可能在降温之前推高。
就目前而言，考虑到季节性模式，追逐反弹感觉存在风险，但完全保持观望可能会错过进一步的上涨空间。我更喜欢逢低买入，而不是在当前反弹时买入，因为我仍然预计月底会出现一些波动。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
How do you view this week's market? Will the rally continue, or will we see a Friday pullback?
With expectations of a December Fed rate cut and quantitative tightening potentially ending in December—Is last week’s sell-off already behind us?
Is now a good time to get in?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins, stock and options vouchers!
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
1) There is a high probability that this week will remain strong and volatile, but on Friday, due to profit-taking of funds before the holiday, the callback is normal;
2) I think last week's sell-off was an "emotional overreaction", not a trend reversal;
3) Whether to enter the market depends on the rhythm. It is easy to be shocked by chasing high in the short term, but I think it is still a reasonable strategy to lay out in batches every callback.
Now rate cuts are back on the menu, then everything climbs again.
What sort of gambling madness is this?
The tired, cautious whisper that Thanksgiving week won't be good 4 years in a row, has been blown away by a wave of pure, unadulterated euphoria.
So let's forget the old patterns, tear up history books and celebrate this Thanksgiving with gusto.
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! 🥰🥰🥰🎊🎊🎊🍗🍗🍗🍾🍾🍾
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
2. Now is a great time to invest in $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ before more market turmoil occurs
標普500有沒有連續四周感恩節上漲。
由於2022年、2023年和2024年已經錄得上漲，2025年的統計趨勢傾向於回調。
我感覺科技 / AI /動能股此前漲幅很高，其估值已較爲昂貴 —— 若公司盈利 /增長預期不達標，市場情緒可能迅速轉冷。