Gold at $4,200: Will Analysts from Major Banks Be Proven Right?
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ has been rising consecutively in recent days and is trading at six-week highs near $4,250, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut.
Key levels to watch include resistance at $4,245 and $4,300, and support at $4,211 and $4,193.
How do major banks view gold prices? Could we see $4,500–$5,000 per ounce in 2026?
1.A November 30 survey by Goldman Sachs found that many institutional investors expect gold to reach record highs of $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.
A survey conducted from November 12 to 14 among over 900 institutional clients. In summary, over 70% of institutional investors foresee continued gold price gains next year
36% of respondents—the largest group—believe gold will maintain momentum and exceed $5,000 by the end of next year.
Another 33% expect gold to rise to the $4,500–$5,000 range.
Only slightly more than 5% expecting a drop back to $3,500–$4,000.
2. On November 28, Morgan Stanley’s commodities strategy team projected that gold could surge to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026.
They observed that inflows into gold ETFs have nearly completely reversed after four years of net outflows, reaching levels not seen since 2020. They expect this trend to continue as interest rates decline.
3. On November 27, Deutsche Bank forecast gold approaching $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with a further historic breakthrough in 2027.
In extreme scenarios, gold could even reach $10,000.
Saxo Bank recently published its 2026 “outrageous predictions,” including potential market shocks from breakthroughs in quantum computing or AI system failures, which could push gold to $10,000 per ounce. Some of Saxo Bank’s 2025 predictions, such as an 8% drop in the dollar and NVIDIA surpassing Apple in market capitalization, have already materialized.
This recalls Goldman Sachs’ sharp upward adjustment in April during a major rally. At that time, they raised their year-end forecast to $3,700 per ounce (previously $3,300), with a projected range of $3,650–$3,950, noting that tail risks could drive prices as high as $4,500, though with low probability.
Gold in 2026: Do you believe $5,000 is possible?
Can gold hold $4200?
Extreme Scenarios: Could gold ever reach $10,000?
What’s your take for banks’ targets?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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Morgan Stanley’s $4,500 mid-2026 target and Deutsche Bank’s nearly $5,000 forecast make sense to me given the macro setup. As long as gold holds above the $4,200 support zone, I believe the upward trend remains intact, especially with resistance now being tested around $4,245–$4,300.
As for extreme calls like $10,000, I see those as low-probability tail risks that would require major systemic shocks. Based on current fundamentals, the $4,500–$5,000 range by 2026 feels realistic and is broadly aligned with what the major banks expect.
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Gold in 2026: Do you believe $5,000 is possible?
Can gold hold $4200?
Extreme Scenarios: Could gold ever reach $10,000?
What’s your take for banks’ targets?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
The $4,200 level has been validated by the recent rally, now viewed as a support base for the ongoing bull trend, with analysts expecting it to hold steady backed by global tensions and institutional demand。。。
$5,000 target for 2026 is realistic, driven by sustained central bank accumulation and market expectations of US interest rate cuts
While $10,000 remains an extreme scenario, it would require a major event, such as hyperinflation or a global financial collapse, to materialize
Banks' targets of $4,500–$5,000 by 2026 reflect a bullish outlook, based on inflation hedging, geopolitical risks, and rising demand for gold as a safe haven
Given recent bank forecasts and the macro view for 2025-2026, gold maintaining $4,200 is increasingly likely, with $5,000 achievable by 2026, while $10,000 remains a distant possibility
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@Snowwhite
so possible able to hold 4200 optimistic scenario perhaps may reach 5000 (though unlikely).
10000 [Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking] war times perhaps [OMG] [OMG] [OMG]
When central banks buy Gold in droves and investors panic about inflation, the Gold's shine is a beacon of reliability.
The high price reflects genuine tangible demand for Gold that has held its value since ancient times, because people don't trust the "paper glitter" of fiat currencies.
Can Gold hit USD 4500 to USD 5000 in 2026?
Analysts like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America believe so. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cutting cycle through to 2026. This lowers real yields and typically support higher gold prices.
I believe that Gold will continue its upward momentum too.That is why I have bought $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ which is up 58% year todate.
All that glitters is certainly Gold right now
@Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
We hear projections that it might break 4500 or 5000 somewhere in 2026, and we buy in to be involved in the growth, then institutions see the inflow and believe further growth is indeed a solid call to make... and it goes on and on 😂
Holding 4,200 depends mainly on yield trends. If the Fed confirms an easing cycle, gold can stay elevated, though pullbacks to 3,700–3,900 remain normal after such a strong run.
As for the extreme case, 10,000 belongs to crisis scenarios, such as a major USD devaluation, severe inflation or global financial stress. It is not a standard forecast.
Most banks stay conservative, projecting 4,300–4,800 for 2025–2026, with 5,000 as a bullish but less likely scenario.
5000 美元在 2026 年不是疯狂幻想，但需要降息周期持续＋实物需求稳定＋ETF 不断加仓。
4200 能不能守住？短线我认为能，但接下来要看 12 月的数据与美联储指引。
至于 10,000，这更像是“黑天鹅价格”，不会是主线，但也不该完全忽略。
他們觀察到，在經歷了四年的淨流出後，流入黃金ETF的資金幾乎完全逆轉，達到了2020年以來的最高水平。他們預計，隨着利率下降，這一趨勢將持續下去。
該調查於11月12日至14日在900多家機構客戶中進行。綜上所述，超七成機構投資者預計明年金價將持續上漲
36%的受訪者——最大的羣體——認爲黃金將保持勢頭，並在明年年底突破5000美元。
另有33%的人預計金價將升至4500-5000美元區間。
只有略高於5%的人預計價格會回落至3,500-4,000美元。