To The Moon

Google Sees $12M Bearish Put Sweep as Stock Hits Recent Highs

$Alphabet(GOOG)$   shares have continued to strengthen, rising rapidly from $285.6 on November 17 to around $320 today—an increase of nearly 12% in just two and a half weeks, making it one of the strongest performers among mega-cap tech stocks. However, just as the stock reached a short-term high and sentiment appeared stretched, the options market saw two rare and clearly directional Put Sweeps, signaling that some institutional investors have begun positioning for short-term downside risk at elevated levels.

$12.11 Million in Bearish Premium Signals Short-Term Pullback Expectations

Intraday, large orders aggressively swept the Jan. 9, 2026 / $315 strike Put, with the two trades totaling over 12,000 contracts and roughly $12.11 million in premium spent. Both trades executed on the ask side, marked as Bearish by the system, and the Sweep structure—which prioritizes execution speed over price—typically indicates a firm directional view from the buyer.

The $315P is effectively an at-the-money (ATM) contract with shares near $320, offering high Delta sensitivity to near-term price moves. With only 37 days remaining until expiration, the positioning strongly reflects an expectation of volatility or pullback within the next few weeks. Notably, open interest in this contract was only 55 contracts prior to today's activity, meaning almost the entire position represents new exposure rather than rolling or hedging existing positions—evidence of a high-conviction, short-term bearish build-up.

This contrasts sharply with the options flow on November 17, when Google traded near $285. At that time, heavy bid-side activity in the far-dated June 2026 / $290P suggested put-selling—interpreted as a long-term bullish signal. Combined with Berkshire Hathaway's newly disclosed Q3 accumulation of Alphabet, the market generally viewed it as a “bottom-fishing + downside protection” strategy. But as the stock rallied sharply toward $320, institutional positioning flipped: long-term optimism remained intact, but short-term exposure shifted toward downside hedging, highlighting rising concern over volatility heading into a dense year-end macro calendar.

Gemini and TPU Strengthen Google's Long-Term Competitive Edge

Google's fundamental outlook is increasingly defined by the twin engines of Gemini and TPU. The Gemini model family is now embedded across Search, Ads, YouTube, Android, and Workspace, meaningfully improving content understanding, ad efficiency, and user experience—enhancing Google's long-standing ecosystem advantages. Meanwhile, Google's self-developed TPU chips are moving beyond internal use toward commercialization, with reports that $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ and OpenAI have shown interest in using Google's AI chips. Should these partnerships materialize, Google Cloud would gain, for the first time, a credible opportunity to challenge $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ in AI training compute.

Together, Gemini (AI) + TPU (compute) + Cloud (platform) form a vertically integrated AI technology stack that strengthens Google's long-term growth profile and supports a potential valuation re-rating toward an “AI full-stack infrastructure company.” Still, after a rapid stock rebound, valuation has expanded quickly, and regulatory pressures, AI competition, and December macro events could introduce short-term volatility—prompting some institutions to adopt short-dated downside protection or directional bearish trades.

Summary

Overall, today's two large Put Sweeps—marked by clear directionality, significant size, and short time-to-expiration—differ sharply from previous long-dated bullish or defensive positioning. Institutional investors stepping in to buy short-term ATM Puts near the recent high likely reflects caution toward elevated valuations, more volatile sentiment, and a crowded near-term macro calendar. While Google's long-term fundamentals continue to improve thanks to Gemini and TPU progress, the sharp near-term rally has led to signs of cooling in institutional flows, and today's options activity provides a meaningful signal of this shift.

From an investment perspective, Google may face increased volatility or short-term pullback risk at current levels. Investors may consider managing exposure through volatility strategies or staged entry. Over the medium to long term, tracking the commercialization of Gemini, potential TPU partnerships, and enterprise AI demand within Google Cloud will be key—if these drivers materialize, Google's structural growth story remains intact.

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