To The Moon

$NVDA$
Key News:

• Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison announced a "chip-agnostic" strategy, procuring chips from any supplier, leading to a decline in NVDA's stock price.

• ByteDance and Alibaba plan significant purchases of NVDA H200 AI chips, pending Chinese regulatory approval.

• Reports indicate Chinese AI firm DeepSeek obtained NVDA Blackwell chips via smuggling to develop new models.

Options Analysis:

• Current Implied Volatility (IV) is neutral-to-low, indicating limited expected price movement. Call activity is robust, signaling bullish sentiment, though block trades suggest institutional caution.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected narrow range: $180–187.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to $175–190.

• Key Support: $180 – the most critical defense line, formed by massive Put OI and a key battleground.

• Key Resistance: $187–187.5 – a dense Call OI zone creating overhead resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$NVDA 20251219 172.5 PUT$ 
Rationale: 1) Strike is well below current price ($183.78), providing ample safety margin; 2) OI of 1,716 offers moderate liquidity; 3) Low IV percentile offers decent premium.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $177 (technical support) or drops >3% in a day. Max loss is theoretically unlimited but probability is only 15.32%; expected reward/risk ≈ 1:3.

$AAPL$
Key News:
No major news from Apple today. Recent market focus includes: 1) IDC forecasts Apple capturing 22% of the 2026 foldable phone market; 2) Citi raises target price from $315 to $330; 3) Apple viewed as an "anti-AI" safe haven for not engaging in an AI arms race; 4) Global tablet market remains in a weak recovery, but Apple outperforms via promotional strategies.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at historical extremes (low), indicating expectations for very stable prices. Call trading is active; sentiment is positive.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected mild range: $272–285.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand slightly to $270–288.

• Key Support: $275 – both a recent technical low and the most concentrated Put OI defense line.

• Key Resistance: $285–288 – $285 is this week's Call OI resistance; $288 is a stronger YTD high resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$AAPL 20251219 270.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: Stock above key support; low IV favors sellers; $270 strike provides a 4% downside buffer; ITM probability 15.23%, win rate ≈84.77%.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $275.

$META$
Key News:

• Meta announces it will launch a new large language model codenamed "Avocado" in Q1 2026, seen as the successor to Llama. Unlike its open-source approach, Avocado will likely be proprietary, shifting toward commercialization.

• The company recently reorganized its AI division, invested nearly $15B to acquire Scale AI shares, and appointed its CEO as Chief AI Officer.

• Meta also plans to cut its Metaverse division budget by 30%, reallocating resources to AI strategy.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is relatively low, indicating expectations for steady price action. Call trading is active; overall sentiment leans bullish.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected wide range: $620–680.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to $610–690.

• Key Support: $620–630 – the most dense Put OI zone, forming strong downside defense.

• Key Resistance: $670–680 – area of concentrated Call OI, the primary overhead resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$META 20251219 620.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: $620 is strong support with high OI; low IV favors sellers.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $610.

$NFLX$
Key News:

• Netflix is in focus due to the acquisition battle for Warner Bros. Discovery.

• On Dec 5, Netflix made an $82.7B offer, but three days later Paramount/Skydance launched a hostile $108.4B bid.

• The deal faces multiple hurdles including consumer class-action lawsuits and congressional scrutiny, with strict antitrust review expected.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is elevated, indicating expectations for significant price swings. Put trading is more active; sentiment is cautious.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected wide range: $90–97.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to $88–100.

• Key Support: $90 – the most important defense line, guarded by massive Put OI, forming strong support.

• Key Resistance: $97 – area of concentrated Call OI, the immediate overhead resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$NFLX 20251219 85.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: $85 strike is 8.3% below current price; ITM probability only 8.45%; OI of 5,878 provides good liquidity. Level is near technical support; acquisition uncertainty makes a break below unlikely near-term.
Stop: Consider closing if stock breaks below $88 (3.5% above strike).

$GOOGL$
Key News:

• Alphabet's YouTube TV will launch at least 10 new subscription bundles by early 2026, including sports, news, family, and entertainment packages, aiming to offer more choice.

• Google Gemini mobile app downloads increased after the late-November Gemini 3 release; global website traffic doubled; monthly users grew 30% to 346M.

• However, the EU announced an antitrust investigation on Dec 9 into Google's alleged abuse of market position to promote its own AI tools, potentially leading to fines or business adjustments.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is neutral-to-low, indicating relatively stable expectations. Call trading is more active; sentiment leans bullish.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected range: $312–328; elevated short-term IV may cause intraday swings.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to $305–332.

• Key Support: $307.5–315 – a dense Put OI band, important downside support.

• Key Resistance: $325–328 – concentrated Call OI zone, the primary overhead resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$GOOGL 20251219 305.0 PUT$ 
ITM Probability: 15.34%, Win Rate ≈84.66%
Rationale: $305 strike is ~4.7% below current price, near historical support with concentrated Put OI, providing good downside protection. Low IV percentile offers favorable premium environment.
Stop: Consider closing if stock breaks below $300 (6.3% decline) or option price rises to $3.0 (double the sell price).

$TSLA$
Key News:
Market focus remains on robotics progress, though there are doubts about its near-term practicality.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is high in absolute terms but at historical lows, meaning options are relatively cheap. Sentiment is bullish but near-term volatility is expected to be high.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected high-volatility range: $435–470.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to $425–475.

• Key Support: $430 – the "floor" formed by substantial Put OI, offering the strongest support.

• Key Resistance: $450 – the most concentrated Call OI zone, the immediate overhead resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$TSLA 20251212 430.0 PUT$ 
Premium: $0.82, Delta: -0.097
Rationale: Very low Delta provides high win rate; accelerated time decay near expiration; OI of 23,459 ensures liquidity.
Stop: Close immediately if stock breaks below $425.

$PLTR$
Key News:
Palantir secured a $448M U.S. Navy contract for AI technology to modernize the shipbuilding supply chain and accelerate vessel manufacturing. The contract will utilize Palantir's Foundry platform and AI systems for the "ShipOS" project.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at historical extremes (low), meaning options are cheap and the market expects stability. Call trading is active; sentiment is bullish.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected range: $180–195.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to $175–200.

• Key Support: $170 – the "max pain" level and a massive Put OI defense line, the most critical support.

• Key Resistance: $195–200 – $187.5–195 is near-term resistance; $200 is a stronger Call OI resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$PLTR 20251219 170.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: Stock bolstered by $448M contract; $170 strike is 9.5% below current price, providing ample safety margin. The option has very high OI, good liquidity, and low IV favors sellers.
Stop: Close if stock breaks below $175 (7% below current price).