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🌍 Monday — Macro Economy

U.S. stocks ended 2025 with mixed results during the holiday-shortened trading week, as most major indexes achieved double-digit annual gains for the third consecutive year. While the Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000, and S&P 500 declined for the week, the Dow Jones and S&P MidCap 400 showed relative resilience with smaller losses of 0.67% and 0.71% respectively. Energy stocks within the S&P 500 bucked the negative trend, posting gains as geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices higher.

The housing market showed encouraging signs as pending home sales surged 3.3% in November—the largest monthly increase since February 2023—driven by improving affordability from lower mortgage rates and wage growth outpacing home price increases. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported a 0.4% monthly rebound in U.S. house prices for October, with prices up 1.7% year-over-year, led by growth in the Middle Atlantic and East North Central regions.

The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed divisions among policymakers, with most supporting potential future rate cuts if inflation continues declining, while others preferred maintaining current rates. Despite the Fed's dovish stance, markets showed muted reaction with only a 15% probability of a January rate cut. Meanwhile, labor market data remained robust, with initial jobless claims falling to 199,000—the third consecutive weekly decline and among the lowest readings of the year.

The week ahead: January 5-9

📌【Today’s Question】

New week ahead—any thoughts on where the U.S. stock market is headed?

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# 💰Stocks to watch today?(16 Jan)

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  • 人工智能热情和波动性美国股市的牛市在很大程度上受到围绕人工智能(Al)的乐观情绪的推动。这导致科技行业的股票表现出色,计算机和技术集团在2025年将飙升27.8%。然而,人们越来越担心潜在的铝泡沫,这可能导致市场波动加剧。

    策略师预计,Al将遵循历史技术繁荣和萧条周期,市场可能会经历大幅抛售,然后在2026年之前快速反弹。

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  • Alubin
    ·01-05
    Think the AI stocks and semiconductors stocks would continue to inch up. So overall the US market will inch up.
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  • Shyon
    ·01-05
    TOP
    今天我关注的股票是 $英伟达(NVDA)$ ,本周的CES强调了为什么它仍然是人工智能下一阶段的核心。CES 2026与其说是关于概念,不如说是关于人工智能变得实体化和高效,英伟达显然正在倾向于这种转变。英伟达没有强调消费者GPU,而是推动“物理人工智能”,将计算嵌入机器人、工厂和人工智能创造可衡量价值的现实世界系统中。

    突出的是英伟达与AMD和英特尔的战略分歧。虽然他们仍然专注于边缘和PC人工智能,但英伟达正在扩展到机器人、工业自动化和人工智能定义的车辆。这使英伟达获得了超越传统硬件周期的更大、更长期的机会。

    CES强化了我的观点,即英伟达的优势在于塑造人工智能的未来,而不仅仅是供应芯片。随着人工智能从屏幕进入物理世界,英伟达将自己定位为这一转变的核心基础设施提供商。

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars

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    • ShyonReplying toicycrystal
      [Cool][Cool][Cool]
      01-06
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    • koolgal
      伟大的见解🥰🥰🥰
      01-06
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    • icycrystal
      谢谢分享
      01-06
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  • highhand
    ·01-05
    向上?在过去的几个月里,指数看起来像一个上升三角形...更高的低点和平顶阻力。让我们希望很快有突破!
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  • bennyser
    ·01-05
    In this market, quality and discipline are more important than chasing hype. I focus on profitable large caps with strong cash flow, stagger my entries instead of going all‑in, and always set clear stop‑loss levels so one bad trade will not destroy my capital. When sentiment turns extreme, I prefer to hold extra cash and only scale into stocks or ETFs that I am willing to keep for the long term, instead of gambling on short‑term memes.
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  • icycrystal
    ·01-05
    TOP
    am eyeing on $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ because JPMorgan's strength lies in its diversified business model, robust balance sheet, and leadership position in investment banking and wealth management, which provides resilience across economic cycles.
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  • L.Lim
    ·01-05
    Oil will likely have a sustained slide, what with US tightening their grip on Venezuela.
    Interesting to note that Trump did not try to install the opposition that likely won the elections, had Maduro not rigged the results.
    Maduro's vice president, Rodriguez's tone does not seem to be friendly to Trump though and it is unlikely that the US president will take it quietly. She (or the powers that be) might have made a deal for the US to control the oil to allow her to stay in power as interim president for now.
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  • zlance
    ·01-05
    $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ Following last Friday’s delivery numbers, Tesla saw a sharp sell-off driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. While deliveries missed expectations, the outcome was not disastrous, particularly in the context of Tesla’s ongoing strategic pivot, i.e. its transition toward higher-optionality businesses such as robotaxi, energy generation and storage, as well as potential long-term synergies with SpaceX and Grok AI.

    It's potentially oversold & this sets up a tactical rebound opportunity. Near term sentiment could see incremental support following reports of Elon Musk’s dinner with President Trump, which reinforces expectations of a more favourable regulatory & policy backdrop.

    Overall, risk-reward looks asymmetric at current levels, with downside largely priced in while optionality remains under-recognised.

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  • BTS
    ·01-05
    Investors are cautiously navigating a wobbly start to 2026 with a busy economic calendar including the jobs report and geopolitical uncertainty in Venezuela alongside a broadening technology rally driven by AI optimism
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  • Mrzorro
    ·01-05
    $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ gains more than 3% in premarket trading, after climbing more than 5% on Friday; $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ advance over 2%.
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  • Lanceljx
    ·01-05
    Here is a tighter view for the week ahead:
    The U.S. market is likely to stay range-bound with a mild upward bias, assuming no macro surprises. Recent pullbacks look more like consolidation after a strong 2025 close.
    Key drivers • Macro data: Inflation and labour prints remain decisive. Softer data supports equities; sticky inflation limits upside.
    • Rates and Fed tone: Stability in rate-cut expectations favours risk assets.
    • Tech leadership: AI, semiconductors, and megacaps continue to anchor sentiment.
    Market structure • Expect rotation over liquidation. Weakness may attract dip-buying in quality growth.
    • Volatility could rise intraday, but sustained downside needs a clear catalyst.
    Overall, this appears to be a consolidation week, not a trend reversal.
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  • koolgal
    ·01-06
    TOP
    🌟🌟🌟This week is a collision of 2 worlds:  the glittering high octane future of technology and the raw volatile reality of geopolitical tensions.  For me, it is a week of holding my breath, where the thrill of innovation at CES meets the cold, hard anxiety of the oil markets.

    In Las Vegas CES 2026 isn't just a trade show.  For companies like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ this is their moment to showcase the latest gizmo in AI revolution.

    While Vegas dreams, the global economy watches the aftermath of the Venezuela attack with a heavy heart. 

    Oil prices are currently caught in a tug of war.  On one side , a massive global supply glut is trying to keep the price down.  On the other, the terrifying spectre of escalation in South America may threaten to ignite a price spike.

    Hold tight!  It is going to be a wild ride!🙏🙏🙏🎢🎢🎢

    @Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @CaptainTiger

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    • koolgal
      Appreciate your support 🥰🥰🥰
      01-06
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    • koolgalReplying toicycrystal
      My pleasure 🥰🥰🥰
      01-06
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    • icycrystal
      thanks for sharing
      01-06
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  • TimothyX
    ·01-07
    房地產市場顯示出令人鼓舞的跡象,11月份待售房屋銷量飆升3.3%,這是自2023年2月以來的最大月度增幅,這得益於抵押貸款利率下降和工資增長超過房價上漲帶來的負擔能力提高。聯邦住房金融局報告稱,10月份美國房價月度反彈0.4%,同比上漲1.7%,其中大西洋中部和東北中部地區的增長帶動。
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  • Cadi Poon
    ·01-07
    美国股市在假期缩短的交易周结束时表现好坏参半,大多数主要股指连续第三年实现两位数的年度涨幅。虽然纳斯达克综合指数、罗素2000指数和标普500指数本周下跌,但道琼斯指数和标准普尔中型股400指数表现出相对弹性,跌幅较小,分别为0.67%和0.71%。由于地缘政治紧张局势推高油价,标普500内的能源股逆势上涨。
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  • Hairutrade
    ·01-06
    Beginner trader here, ALL IN ON $Visa(V)$ +69% till mid febuary target price
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