To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟The Tariff drumbeat returned overnight and markets reacted with the kind of instinctive recoil we have seen many times before.  Gold and Silver climbed to fresh weekly highs.  The US 10 year yield pushed upward.  Stocks wobbled as traders tried to make sense of Trump's latest announcement: A 10% Tariff on 8 European countries from February 1 with the threat of 25% by June if a Greenland deal isn't reached yet.

It is dramatic but it is also familiar. 

If there is one thing Trump era markets have taught us, it is that tariff shocks tend to follow a recognisable rhythm.  The initial jolt is sharp.  Headlines flare.  Futures wobbled.  Safe havens rise.  But the selloff rarely become a prolonged slide. 

Historically the pattern has been:

Shock followed by negotiation and then recalibration with markets stabilising once the political theatre shifts into bargaining phase.

So how long does this sell down last?

If history is any guide, the acute phase tends to run for days to weeks but not months.  However markets do not like uncertainty but they have learned how to price Trump's tariff tactics: react quickly and then wait for the pivot.

For now,investors are bracing, watching and adjusting but not panicking.  Volatility may spike but resilience has become muscle memory. 

My Strategy 

TACO time is designed to provoke emotion.  However my strategy is to remain calm, be patient and wait for clarity.  This is just a temporary setback.

Markets have weathered tariffs, tantrums, crises, shocks and headlines far worse than this.  Every time the long term trend has been the same :  recovery, resilience and renewal.

Volatility may shake the branches but the tree keeps growing. 

Stay focused.  Stay patient.  The long arc of the market has never belonged to panic.  It always belong to discipline.

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