Gold’s Parabolic Run to Hit Targets Early? When Will the Party End?
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ is no longer just a slow-moving safe-haven asset—its price action is starting to look like a high-growth tech stock, with explosive momentum. While markets are still debating AI commercialization, gold has already surged past $4,800 in January, leaving many Wall Street banks’ annual forecasts far behind. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$
1) Wall Street’s “Collective Miss”: A Gold Rally They Can’t Catch
Looking back at last year, an interesting pattern emerged: gold kept rising, and analysts repeatedly raised their targets just to chase the trend. As we enter 2026, the same movie seems to be playing again.
Morgan Stanley previously expected gold to reach $4,800 by year-end, yet the market “hit” that target before January even ended. This collective lag in expectations suggests a deeper repricing may be underway—driven by global central-bank de-dollarization and renewed safe-haven demand.
2) Step-Ladder Targets: When Technicals and Institutional Forecasts Align
Combining the current Elliott Wave structure with the latest institutional consensus, here’s a roadmap:
Short-term target: $5,000 (a psychological line in sight)
Gold is only about 2.3% away from this level. HSBC and Deutsche Bank expect gold to challenge this key psychological mark in the near term. If gold can hold above $5,000, it would effectively enter a “low-resistance zone.”
Mid-term target: $5,250–$5,300 (sub-wave 5 acceleration)
This range is a key resistance zone based on Fibonacci extensions. BofA and JPM have moved quickly to keep up with the market, lifting their 2026 targets into this band. It also matches the “secondary Wave 5 within Wave 3” type of breakout behavior we’re observing.
Long-term target: $5,900–$6,000 (late-stage major Wave 5)
This is the most aggressive endpoint projection for the current bull cycle. More bullish houses such as Yardeni Research and Jefferies argue that under extreme inflation pressure or a further escalation in geopolitics, a major Wave 5 sprint could point directly toward $6,000 as early as this year.
3) When Will the Party End?
In commodities, Wave 5 is often the most explosive phase—powered by fundamentals and FOMO. But investors should watch for two classic “end-of-run” signals:
Exhaustion gap / blow-off behavior: a near-vertical push toward $6,000 alongside a sharp surge in volume—often signaling buyer fatigue.
Real rates turning higher: if inflation data falls faster than expected and real yields spike, the rising opportunity cost of holding gold can become a major headwind. Gold may retreat to $4200-4400 during major wave 4.
Community Discussion
If gold hits $5,000 before February, do you expect a healthy pullback or a straight launch toward $5,900?
Do you trust JPM’s more “steady” target ($5,055) or Yardeni’s aggressive call ($6,000)?
Drop your sharpest take in the comments to win tiger coins!
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如果黄金击中二月前5,000美元，您预计会出现健康的回调还是直接向$5,900？
你相信吗摩根大通的更“稳健”的目标（$5,055）或亚德尼氏激进的看涨期权（$6,000)?
在评论中写下你最尖锐的观点，赢取老虎币！
If gold reaches $5,000 before February, I expect a pullback, but likely a shallow and healthy one. A pause toward the $4,700–$4,800 zone would help reset momentum, while a straight vertical surge toward $5,900 would feel more like late-stage exhaustion.
Between JPM and Yardeni, I lean toward JPM’s steady outlook in the near term, while viewing Yardeni’s $6,000 call as a tail-risk scenario. For me, $5,000 is a checkpoint, $5,250–$5,300 is the volatility zone, and $6,000 requires clear euphoria and added macro stress.
@TigerClub @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
我很可能会选择更有分寸、更注重共识的JPM目标对于2026年的时间表。升至5,000美元可能会遇到修正的阶段，而今年要达到Yardeni 6,000美元的目标，需要加速已经很高的避险情绪和极端的市场条件。
But one thing I know for sure is that Gold is regarded as a safe haven asset in a world fraught with geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.
So it makes perfect sense to invest in a Gold ETF such as $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ or $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ as a counterbalance against the volatility in the markets.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
Gold prices could reach $5,000 if economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand; however, a rapid rise would likely face resistance and require strong momentum, and if gold hits $5,000 before February, the technical setup would likely trigger a pullback rather than a direct surge to $5,900, as parabolic moves often require consolidation and profit-taking
Confidence in the $5,055 target from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is logical if the rally is viewed as a reflection of current economic trends and realistic price movements; conversely, the $6,000 forecast from Yardeni depends on extreme market volatility or systemic geopolitical shifts pushing gold to new heights
Gold could test the $5,000 level; however, surpassing it and shooting straight to $6,000 would likely need significantly stronger catalysts to drive that kind of move
On targets: JPM $5,055 is the more reliable base-case anchor. Yardeni $6,000 is a valid bullish scenario if policy volatility and risk premium stay elevated. Use JPM for trims, Yardeni as stretch upside.
May be quite different from equities pull back scenarios.
I guess it wouldn't pull back much even if breach 5k, unless countries level offload it. cheers. [Smile] [Smile]
“阶梯式”模式：在强劲的牛市中，金价通常以“阶梯式”方式波动：大幅反弹，随后是一段时间的盘整，然后是另一次反弹。这表明，如果基本面驱动因素（如高通胀、地缘政治风险）仍然存在，上升趋势可以继续。
新的价格下限：在大幅上涨后，之前的阻力位可以成为新的支撑位，建立更高的价格下限。
"gold kept rising, and analysts repeatedly raised their targets"
It has been shown that the predictions always err on the safe side and almost always are wrong.
So take it with a pinch of salt, take the news and predictions in context, but do your due diligence.
With a loose cannon as the us president, gold will be shining very bright, it sounds wild for the 5000, but now even 6000 sounds possible.