To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 10Aug2026)

Singapore Market Holiday

Singapore markets will be closed on 10 August as the country observes the National Day holiday.

Key Inflation Indicators

The key data releases to watch in the coming week are CPI and core CPI. These are widely used inflation indicators and among the data points the Federal Reserve considers when assessing its next interest rate decision. If inflation remains persistent or rises further, the Fed may need to consider raising rates rather than cutting them, which could introduce volatility into equity markets.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July will also be released. As PPI captures inflationary pressure at the producer level, it can provide an early signal of costs that may later be passed on to consumers.

Consumption and Housing Data

Existing home sales for July are forecast at 4.06 million units. This release is a useful bellwether for the US real estate market, particularly as home prices appear to be correcting across several states.

Retail sales and core retail sales for July are also scheduled for release, with both forecast at 0.2%. These figures offer insight into consumer spending and provide an indirect gauge of the broader economy through the lens of retail consumption.

Market Liquidity and Volatility Drivers

Crude oil inventory data will provide another reference point for market expectations around demand and consumption. Shifts in inventory levels can influence energy prices and may contribute to broader market volatility.

The 10-year note and 30-year bond auctions will also be closely watched. Bonds and equities compete for investor capital, and higher yields on government securities may attract funds away from equities, potentially driving additional market movement.

Earnings Calendar (10Aug2026)

Among the earnings releases that interest me this week are Berkshire Hathaway, Sea Limited, Cisco, and CoreWeave. This section focuses on Sea Limited.

Market View and Share Price Performance

Sea Limited’s share price has fallen 23.16% over the past year. Despite this decline, both technical analysis and analyst sentiment point to a strong buy recommendation. Based on a price target of $141.97, the stock has a potential upside of 25.16%.

Valuation Snapshot

The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 37.8, with a gross profit margin of 44.3% and earnings per share (EPS) of 2.67. On these metrics, the stock appears somewhat expensive.

Five-Year Financial Performance

• Total revenue grew from $9.9 billion to $22.9 billion.

• Gross profit increased from $3.8 billion to $10.2 billion.

• The company broke even in 2023 after losses in the previous two years.

• For the year ended 31 December 2025, operating income was $1.9 billion and net income was $1.5 billion.

Return on investment on a trailing 12-month basis stood at 8.9%, while the trailing 12-month net profit margin was 6.36%. It is encouraging to see that Sea Limited has moved into profitability over the past few years.

Balance Sheet Position

Over the same period, total assets increased from $18.7 billion to $29.3 billion. Total liabilities also rose from $11.3 billion to $16.7 billion, while total equity grew from $7.4 billion to $12.6 billion.

Long-term debt to equity stood at 5.41% on a most recent quarter basis, while total debt to equity was 27.61%. This remains a point to monitor, although the debt level does not appear excessive relative to equity.

Cash Flow Trends

From 2021 to 2025, cash from operations grew significantly, rising from $0.2 billion to $5.0 billion. This improvement suggests that the underlying business is generating stronger cash flow as it scales.

Cash from investing has remained negative over the past five years, reaching -$4.4 billion in 2025. For Sea Limited, this trend points to aggressive reinvestment into its regional ecosystem. Management appears to be directing profits from gaming and e-commerce into digital banking, logistics, and related growth opportunities.

As long as operating cash flow continues to scale, this level of investment can be viewed as a constructive sign of future revenue compounding rather than simply a drag on earnings.

The company continues to raise financing annually, but the level has declined meaningfully. Cash from financing fell from $7.4 billion in 2021 to $1.6 billion in 2025.

Levered free cash flow for 2025 stood at $0.5 billion, indicating that Sea Limited is now generating positive free cash flow after accounting for leverage.

News about SEA LIMITED (Q2/2026)

Sea Limited’s next chapter is beginning to take shape around artificial intelligence, fintech, and the quiet widening of its e-commerce reach. In June 2026, the company deepened its partnership with OpenAI, bringing AI-powered tools closer to Shopee users and sellers across Southeast Asia and Brazil, while also extending its engagement with Codex. The collaboration followed the Sea × OpenAI Regional Codex Hackathon in Singapore, suggesting that AI is moving from experiment to operating rhythm.Early results are already visible. AI search, recommendations, and content tools helped lift purchase conversion rates by 14% year on year in Q1 2026, while chatbots handling most customer queries reduced service costs by about 30%. At the same time, SeaMoney, now branded as Monee, is pushing beyond Shopee through off-platform lending such as SPayLater, though the faster loan-book growth has brought higher credit-loss provisions.Beyond Southeast Asia, Brazil continues to look like a promising shore for Shopee, supported by better delivery, broader fulfillment capacity, and the growth of ShopeeMall. Indonesia, meanwhile, carries some regulatory mist, particularly around seller taxes, but analysts appear to view the impact as temporary and manageable. Taken together, Sea’s story is no longer only about recovery; it is about building a denser ecosystem, where AI sharpens the marketplace, fintech deepens engagement, and commerce keeps finding new ground. - from Grok & Google.

Earnings Forecast

The EPS and revenue forecast for the upcoming earnings are $0.834 and $7.11B, respectively.

Given the above, I prefer to monitor the stock for now.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (10Aug2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on an uptrend.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving average lines. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

Exponential Moving Averages

This is showing a bearish trend.

Chaikin Money Flow

CMF index shows a score of 0.00, which implies buying momentum cancelling out the selling momentum.

Other Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, technical analysis recommends a “Strong Buy” rating with 19 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and zero indicators showing a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

With a score of “64”, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is suggesting that the general market sentiment is “Greed”. The “Fear” sentiment has decreased from the previous week.

Weekly Outlook

The bottom crossover of the MACD is complete. Based on the above, the S&P500 should be Bullish for the new week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (10Aug2026)

Amazon is building a natural gas plant in Pecos County, Texas, to power an AI data center. Its permits allow 33 million tons of carbon dioxide a year, which would make it the single largest source of climate pollution in the country. For comparison, the dirtiest plant operating in America today emits about 16 million tons, so Amazon's is permitted for roughly double that. Amazon co-founded The Climate Pledge in 2019 and promised net-zero emissions by 2040. - X user Hedgie

Jamie Dimon warns America could lose its reserve currency status within 25 years. - X user Whale Insider

Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth told employees that AI productivity gains should go into more work, not more time off. When a staffer asked about bringing back extra vacation days, Bosworth said to spend the time building more products because Meta employees are "doing the most exciting stuff on the planet." He told the employee to stop asking about time off and to ask their parents whether that makes a good career strategy. - X user Hedgie

China now accounts for 28% of global manufacturing, surpassing the US, Japan, and Germany combined. - X user BRICS News

A total of 911,500,000 shares of SpaceX, held by employees and early investors, become eligible to trade tomorrow. That’s ~43% more than the 638,900,000 shares issued at IPO. SpaceX’s free float is set to increase from 4.9% to 11.8% of outstanding shares. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon has warned that leverage across financial markets remained elevated, adding that investors should be mindful that hidden borrowing could amplify market disruptions. “Margin debt is the highest it has ever been,” he said in an interview with CNBC’s Leslie Picker. - CNBC

Nearly $200 billion in par amount since January 2026, based on Treasury data reviews as of late July. The program (liquidity support + cash management) continues with regular operations; today’s scheduled max is $4B. Full results at http://fiscaldata.treasury.gov. - Grok

My Investing Muse (10Aug2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

The first week of August 2026 saw tech-sector layoffs push year-to-date totals past the full-year 2025 figure, with Layoffs.fyi data showing more than 125,000 tech job cuts already recorded across hundreds of companies. Restructuring for efficiency, cost discipline, and capital reallocation toward AI infrastructure remained key drivers.Zillow (4 August): Eliminated just over 500 positions (~7% of workforce), its largest round of the year. CEO Jeremy Wacksman cited the need for a more disciplined cost structure and operational efficiency amid ongoing growth. Nutanix (4 August): Announced an approximate 5% global workforce reduction (roughly 390 roles) to streamline operations, improve agility, and shift resources toward strategic priorities including AI; expected charges of $33–43 million. TikTok (5 August): Laid off 250 employees and closed its Nashville office (which included content-moderation roles), effective by early October, to streamline operations. Etsy (5 August): Cut about 220 roles (12% of staff), concentrated in Product and Engineering, as part of a restructuring for faster decision-making and flatter teams. CEO Kruti Patel Goyal said the moves were not primarily cost- or AI-driven. Google: A Washington state WARN notice confirmed plans to cut 52 positions (software engineers, managers, and related roles) across Seattle-area offices as part of targeted team reorganizations.Broader context included ongoing WARN notices involving Amazon, Walmart, FedEx and others, plus data showing July U.S. announced cuts at a multi-year low even as tech remained active. These moves reflect continued corporate focus on leaner structures amid AI investment and mixed labor-market signals. - Compiled from Gemini and Grok

British travel companies that shut down in 2026 include Trav Expert, Groupia, Salamander Voyages, Travel Bespoke, Regen Central, Set Sail Cruises, Your Travel Shop and TS Travels Group. Ski Yodl enters voluntary liquidation and cancels all booked trips.

My investing muse

Weather-related disruptions remain a key risk to monitor. Across Asia, recent earthquakes, volcanic activity, and storm systems affecting parts of China’s eastern coast have added to broader climate concerns. Europe and the United States continue to face extreme heat and wildfire risks, while India is dealing with both heatwaves and record rainfall in Mumbai. These events are disrupting lives, livelihoods, and economic activity, and the potential return of El Niño later this year raises the question of whether Asia may experience weather patterns similar to those seen in Europe.

Geopolitical risk also remains elevated, particularly in the Middle East, where a fragile ceasefire continues to create uncertainty rather than lasting stability.

From a market perspective, excessive leverage is another concern. Recent margin calls and forced liquidations in South Korea highlight how quickly leverage can amplify losses. Investors should remain disciplined, avoid overextension, and invest only with capital they can afford to risk.

Kings may not survive ladies. Marriages may not survive liquor. Economies do not survive leverage.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$

$Sea Ltd(SE)$