To The Moon

Color Legend

• 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative.

• 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range.

I. This Week's Simulation Results: 3 Floating Profits

• TSLA Sell Put, 8/28 expiry at 336, entry price 1.44, current price 0.05 — profitable.

• GLD Sell Put, 9/18 expiry at 400, entry price 2.57, current price 2.41 — floating profit.

• COIN Sell Put, 9/4 expiry at 200, entry price 1.66, current price 0.61 — floating profit.

Review: All three trades remain safe — TSLA is holding above 336, COIN above 200, and GLD above 400. The seller environment was favorable this week, supported by NVIDIA's earnings delivery and broad market stabilization. However, Jackson Hole (Warsh's debut) is the biggest variable this week, and floating profits should be monitored closely for post-speech volatility.

II. Broader Market Assessment (SPY & QQQ): NVIDIA Delivers, Awaiting Warsh

• SPY: Closed Thursday at 771.1, forecast range 756–776.

• QQQ: Closed Thursday at 721.11, forecast range 699–728.

Theme: Monday's Bessent $1 trillion Treasury buyback news triggered risk-off sentiment. NVIDIA's earnings beat then removed a major uncertainty, providing support to the market. However, capital is collectively positioning for a dollar rebound ahead of Jackson Hole (gold/China ADRs capped by Sell Calls). The market is more concerned about Warsh doing nothing — regardless of hawkish or dovish tones — which is the biggest uncertainty heading into this meeting.

III. Individual Stock Recap

AI / Semiconductors

• NVDA 🟠: Closed Thursday at 227.98, forecast range 201–229. Earnings beat with revenue doubling and next-year guidance of +70%, breaking above 220. The key is whether it can break 225 (the super Call wall). As previously expected, the Triple Witching center of gravity on 9/18 will likely return to 200–210, though the market may keep NVDA consolidating above 210 to build pre-IPO hype for Anthropic.

• AMD: Closed Thursday at 476.67, forecast 445–501. Trading just below the 20-day MA. NVIDIA's earnings beat did not provide a boost. Expected to continue consolidating and converging moving averages.

• AVGO: Closed Thursday at 371.54, forecast 351–386. Reports earnings after the close on 9/2. A $10+ million block trade bought the September 4-expiry 370 Call. Sell Put strategies are worth considering.

• TSM: Closed Thursday at 427.3, forecast 404–434. Expected to continue high-level consolidation above 380.

Storage (Hynix Buyback Support, Range-Bound Consolidation)

• SKHY: Closed Thursday at 161.61, forecast 150–176. Hynix's ~$30 billion buyback provides a floor for the storage sector; range-bound consolidation continues — Sell Put remains viable.

• MU: Closed Thursday at 935.39, forecast 901–1030. Indirectly benefiting from the buyback news, but with significant volatility.

• SNDK 🟠: Closed Thursday at 1,484.95, forecast 1,465–1,725. Indirectly benefiting from the buyback news, but with even greater volatility.

Weighted Names / Others

• TSLA: Closed Thursday at 354.81, forecast 346–380. Holding above 336 (simulation position has zeroed out), continuing to drift toward the 370 gap — Sell Put remains viable.

• AAPL: Closed Thursday at 314.58, forecast 301–318. Catalysts: 9/10 foldable iPhone launch + new CEO era — Sell Put is worth considering.

• AMZN: Closed Thursday at 256.26, forecast 250–267. Bezos's ongoing selling pressure (planning to sell 15 million shares / $4 billion) continues to cap the stock.

• GOOGL: Closed Thursday at 340.56, forecast 334–355. Similar to AAPL and AMZN — range-bound with small fluctuations.

• META: Closed Thursday at 571.1, forecast 529–570. After last week's pullback to the 540 low, the stock rebounded sharply this week following a settlement in the child harm lawsuit.

• MSFT: Closed Thursday at 505, forecast 469–498. Software sentiment was boosted by Salesforce's +13% rally, driving a strong rebound on Thursday.

• INTC: Closed Thursday at 92, forecast 84–96. Pelosi family bought in + fundraising + large block trades betting on a short-term rebound — watch whether it can hold above 90.

• SPCX: Closed Thursday at 140.87, forecast 128–146. Lock-up overhang (8/20 expiry already passed, another 7% to be released on 9/9) — consolidating below 150.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is a simulation recap and strategy discussion, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Sell Puts/Calls carry assignment/exercise risk. Please strictly control position sizes and stop-losses. Investing involves risk.