To The Moon

Nov 2 – Nov 6 | US Market Watch

1. This Week's Market Overview

Tech is shifting from chasing AI growth to testing profitability, and defensive sentiment is clearly rising.

Last Friday, the Nasdaq fell 2.86% and the S&P 500 fell 1.82%. GOOGL and INTC were sold off after earnings, showing the market is no longer satisfied with AI revenue growth — it cares more about capex, cash flow, and forward guidance.

Options are turning defensive too. QQQ and SPY saw big Put buying, and both are in negative Gamma territory, meaning swings could get bigger if the market falls.

This week's three big variables: the US midterm elections, Apple and semiconductor earnings, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls. High oil prices could also add inflation pressure. The short-term focus isn't guessing the bottom — it's watching whether tech can get back above key levels.

2. This Week's Event Calendar

• 11/2 (Mon): AAPL, PLTR earnings; ISM manufacturing PMI. Watch tech confidence and manufacturing activity.

• 11/3 (Tue): US midterm elections; AMD, PFE, SHOP earnings. AI regulation, industrial policy, and chip demand in focus.

• 11/4 (Wed): ARM, QCOM, UBER earnings; US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement details. Watch chip demand and long-term Treasury supply.

• 11/5 (Thu): US productivity and unit labor costs first estimate; LITE earnings. Watch AI optical communications demand.

• 11/6 (Fri): US October nonfarm payrolls. Jobs and wage data could change rate expectations.

Trading hours note: The US is now on standard time. Regular US market hours are 22:30–05:00 Hong Kong/Singapore time.

3. Events and Volatility Watch

The prices, IV, and Gamma data below use the provided Oct 30 closing data. Implied ranges are what the options market is pricing, not guaranteed price limits.

SPY | Below moving averages, defend 750
Closed at 755.72, below the 20-day line of 770. This week's implied range is 741–770, IV 20.59%, historical percentile 79.28%. Gamma flip point is 776, in negative Gamma territory, so drops could get bigger. Call wall 767, Put wall 750. There's also 4,585 contracts of Nov 20 768 Put buying, showing hedging demand.
This week: Reclaiming 767–770 would improve the short-term trend. If 750 fails, watch 747 and 741.

QQQ | Tech downside pressure unresolved
Closed at 690.49, below the 120-day line of 719. This week's implied range is 668–713, IV 29.32%, historical percentile 84.46%. Gamma flip point is 737.8, so it's sensitive in negative Gamma. Year-end 695 Put buying of 8,000 contracts shows money is still guarding against a pullback.
This week: 713–715 is the bounce confirmation zone. 688 and 679 are key downside watch levels.

NVDA | 200-day line under test
Closed at 204.64, near the 200-day line of 204. This week's implied range is 195–214, IV 49.80%, historical percentile 86.06%. Gamma flip point is 208, currently in negative Gamma. Call wall 217.5, Put wall 200. About 15.1K Nov 20 220 Calls changed hands, with buys and sells mixed — direction unclear.
This week: Holding 208 would help a bounce. If 200 fails, watch 195.

SKHY | Strong results, stock still needs to recover
SK Hynix has strong HBM demand and long-term orders. Closed at 149.21. This week's implied range is 137–162, IV 73.08%, historical percentile 58.97%. The Gamma flip point and Call/Put walls are all at 155, currently in negative Gamma. About 9,580 Nov 20 155 Calls were bought to open.
This week: 155 is the bullish confirmation level; 137 is key downside support.

GOOGL | Search slowing, cloud still needs proof
Search revenue growth slowed to 12%, but cloud and TPU commercialization still have growth potential, and capex pressure is rising. Closed at 279.84. This week's implied range is 268–291, IV 35.39%, historical percentile 54%. Gamma flip point is 283, in negative Gamma. 290 is where Calls and Puts are concentrated.
This week: First watch whether 283 is reclaimed. A break above 290 would improve the trend. 268 is downside support.

MSFT | Cloud strong, trend relatively stable
Azure grew 48%, and capex efficiency is better than some big tech peers. Closed at 521.91. This week's implied range is 504–540, IV 30.65%, historical percentile 52.19%. Gamma flip point is 515, currently in positive Gamma, so short-term swings are relatively easier to suppress. Call wall 540, Put wall 520.
This week: 520–515 is the support zone. A break above 540 would open more upside.

AMZN | AWS growing, cash flow under pressure
AWS grew 39% but missed some institutions' expectations. Future capex is rising, and the market is watching how fast returns come. Closed at 240.35. This week's implied range is 230–251, IV 35.73%, historical percentile 49.40%. Gamma flip point is 243, in negative Gamma. Call wall 250, Put wall 240.
This week: Reclaiming 243 is step one; 250 is upside pressure. If 240 fails, watch 230.

INTC | Guidance weak, bounce still needs confirmation
Data center revenue grew 78%, but PC demand is weak, and Q4 revenue and margin guidance were poor. Closed at 65.76. This week's implied range is 60–71, IV 66.26%, historical percentile 37.85%. Gamma flip point is 82, in negative Gamma. Put wall 65, Call wall 62.
This week: First watch whether 65 holds, then whether 71–72 is reclaimed. 60 is the key downside level.

SNDK | Strong results, valuation under test
Data center demand drove revenue growth, and forward guidance is strong, but the stock is still dragged by the tech selloff. Closed at 1150.89. This week's implied range is 1045–1257, IV 82.43%, historical percentile 19.92%. Gamma flip point is 1275, in negative Gamma. Put wall 1200, Call wall 1300.
This week: Reclaiming 1200 is step one; 1257–1275 is the upside confirmation zone. Watch 1080–1045 on the downside.

4. Institutional Big Order Tracker

Buyers: Money is concentrated in index Put buying, guarding against more tech and market pullbacks.

① [Buyer] QQQ | 2027/01/15 650 Put$QQQ 20270115 650.0 PUT$ 
35,000 contracts | $32.06M | underlying at $715.42 when traded
Money is betting on / guarding against: medium-term tech downside risk, possibly portfolio hedging.
Key level: 650 is the strike. Short term, first watch 688 and 679.

② [Buyer] QQQ | 2026/12/31 695 Put$QQQ 20261231 695.0 PUT$ 
8,000 contracts | $13.816M | underlying at $712.96 when traded
Money is betting on / guarding against: more tech downside before year-end. 695 is closer to the market price at the time.
Key level: Position changes near 695, and whether 688 holds.

③ [Buyer] SPY | 2026/11/20 768 Put$SPY 20261120 768.0 PUT$ 
4,585 contracts | $4.264M | underlying at $768.37 when traded
Money is betting on / guarding against: near-the-money Put buying, reflecting short-term market hedging demand.
Key level: 767–770 is bounce resistance; 750 is a key downside level.

④ [Buyer] IWM | 2026/12/18 263 Put$IWM 20261218 263.0 PUT$ 
6,000 contracts | $1.242M | underlying at $284.77 when traded
Money is betting on / guarding against: even though small caps have been relatively resilient, money is still guarding against risk spreading.
Key level: 263 is the strike. Watch follow-up open interest changes.

Sellers and directional trades: Some money is limiting tech upside exposure while keeping selected bounce positions.

⑤ [Seller] SMH | 2026/11/20 580 Call$SMH 20261120 580.0 CALL$ 
6,000 contracts | $7.716M | underlying at $556.53 when traded
Money is betting on / guarding against: possibly expecting limited semi bounce, or collecting premium through a covered strategy.
Key level: 580 is an upside watch price, not confirmed resistance.

⑥ [Seller] AAPL | 2026/11/04 362.5 Call$AAPL 20261104 362.5 CALL$ 
About 9,999 contracts | $1.73M | underlying at $346.82 when traded
Money is betting on / guarding against: selling Calls before the earnings window may reflect a conservative short-term upside view.
Key level: 362.5 is the watch price. An earnings gap higher could raise seller risk.

⑦ [Buyer] SKHY | 2026/11/20 155 Call$SKHY 20261120 155.0 CALL$ 
About 9,580 contracts opened | $889.8K | underlying at $142.60 when traded
Money is betting on / guarding against: positioning for a post-earnings bounce in SK Hynix, but still taking time decay risk.
Key level: 155 is both the Gamma flip point and a key option positioning level.

⑧ [Buyer] GLD | 2026/12/18 400/425 Call Spread

$GLD 20261218 400.0 CALL$  $GLD 20261218 425.0 CALL$ 
About 55,300 contracts each | net cost per spread about $2.28–2.30 | underlying about $371
Money is betting on / guarding against: positioning for a gold bounce at limited premium cost, with max gain also capped.
Key level: 400 is the lower bought Call strike; 425 is the spread cap.

5. This Week's Strategy Preview

Market: First guard against bigger swings, then watch for bounce confirmation.
SPY and QQQ are both in negative Gamma, and IV historical percentiles are high, meaning the market has clearly priced in more uncertainty.
If SPY can't reclaim 767–770 and QQQ can't reclaim 713–715, bounces may still face selling. If 750 and 688 break, watch for faster swings.
For options learning, compare the cost and protection of buying Puts vs. bear Put spreads. The former is more direct protection; the latter lowers premium cost but limits protection.

Tech: Diverging after earnings — watch relative strength first.
MSFT is above its Gamma flip point, so its structure is relatively stable. GOOGL, AMZN, and INTC are still in negative Gamma, so short-term bounces need more confirmation.
For companies with decent basics but pressured stock prices, study how bull Call spreads limit cost. For names where the decline hasn't stabilized, pay special attention to the risk of selling Puts in a sharp drop.

Semis: Good results don't mean an immediate bounce.
NVDA's 208, SKHY's 155, and SNDK's 1200 are levels worth tracking this week. If bounces can't hold key levels, strong results can still be offset by broad market selling pressure.

One-line for the week: The market is repricing AI investment risk. First watch whether money stops buying insurance, then judge whether a tech bounce can last.

6. Risk Notes

1. Macro risk: Midterms, nonfarm payrolls, oil prices, and Treasury yield changes could enlargement market swings.

2. Earnings risk: Even if results beat, the stock can fall if forward guidance or capex doesn't match market expectations.

3. Options risk: Implied ranges are not guaranteed limits. Negative Gamma can amplify swings. Buyers take time decay risk; sellers can face big losses and assignment risk.

4. Data limits: Big-order trade prices differ from the latest close, and one trade may not represent the full strategy. Gamma and option positions change with the market.

This is for options learning and market observation only, not investment advice.