To The Moon

July CPI delivered exactly what markets expected, yet the reaction shows expectations themselves are moving. With headline inflation easing to 3.4% and core to 2.5%, the case for a September hike weakened further, although inflation remains above target and the Fed is still cautious. For me, the next leg depends less on CPI and more on jobs, PCE and energy. Another soft labour report plus benign PCE could push hike expectations even lower, supporting growth stocks and gold. But renewed energy inflation or stronger demand could quickly revive the hawkish trade. So this CPI was not the catalyst. It removed an obstacle. The bigger question is whether the next data confirm a genuine disinflation trend or expose July as another temporary soft patch.

[Happy]Hi, Tigers! The AI Infra Print Party Is Here 🎉 If you thought the AI trade was running out of steam, Wednesday's earnings just told you otherwise. Three companies. Three different layers of the AI stack. All three blew past expectations — and by the closing bell, the moves were even bigger than the initial after-hours pop suggested. Here's the scoreboard:   The ripple effect was immediate and, by end of session, much bigger than early prints suggested: $NEBIUS(NBIS)$+27-34%, $IREN Ltd(IREN)$+10%, $Coherent(COHR)$+9%, $Ciena(CIEN)$+13%,

Interesting will look for more future updates

When major stock indices hover near all-time highs ahead of crucial inflation data, equity markets resemble a tightly coiled spring. In the days leading up to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, major benchmarks—including the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Nasdaq Composite—entered a distinct holding pattern. Volume thinned, intraday ranges compressed, and market participants treated the headline inflation figure of 3.4% year-over-year as an absolute "pass mark" required to keep the multi-month bull market intact. Wednesday morning’s release delivered precisely what Wall Street ordered: headline CPI cooled to 3.4% YoY (down from 3.5% in June), while core inflation held

1. CPI delivered the outcome we wanted July US CPI rose just 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.5% in June. Core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and eased to 2.5% year-on-year. This is not enough to declare inflation defeated, but it materially reduces the urgency for another Fed hike. Markets now place roughly a 60% probability on no September rate change, versus approximately 50-50 before CPI. That is a meaningful positive change from yesterday. My concern shifts away from immediate Fed tightening toward two longer-term issues: energy inflation + US bond supply. #1 opportunity — AI infrastructure just received another validation Cisco’s results are important. Fiscal Q4 revenue rose to US$17.25 billion from US$14.67 billion, while net income jumped to US$3.86 billion. More impor

CPI came in roughly in line with expectations, so macro pressure did not get worse. But I think the more important signal today was the tape: $Lumentum(LITE)$ gained more than 13%, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ rose over 8%, and MU added more than 6%. Optical and storage moved together again. 💡 The Setup: The Biggest Macro Risk Didn’t Hit July CPI was 3.4% YoY, while core CPI came in at 2.5%. That is not a huge bullish surprise. But inflation also did not reaccelerate, which matters after weeks of concern around oil, inflation and another round of Fed tightening. For high-multiple AI names, simply avoiding another macro shock was enough to help. 🚀 LITE: This Earnings Report Was Leg

Wow incredible! Rate hike is coming...

@Daily_Discussion @TheBeautyofOptions @武松打的老虎 Sometimes We Feel It Is Market Manipulation to Force Margin Players Into Margin Calls 📉⚡ Every trader has experienced that uncomfortable feeling. The market suddenly drops before an important economic announcement, social media becomes filled with fear, and news headlines scream about disaster. In those moments it is easy to think, “This must be market manipulation.” When prices fall sharply, especially before major data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), many investors feel that someone is deliberately pushing prices down to force margin traders into margin calls. Recently, marke

Hello. In the last piece Nvidia was out raising up to US$500 billion for AI infrastructure and the market had started asking where the money would come from. Last night we got half an answer: the money is there, but the people putting it up and the people spending it went in opposite directions. The providers all rose: KKR up 6.88 per cent, Apollo 6.26 per cent, Brookfield 4.77 per cent, Blackstone 3.89 per cent and BlackRock 1.54 per cent. The spenders fell for a second day: Alphabet down 3.61 per cent, its fourth decline in five sessions; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ down 2.09 per cent, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 1.5 per cent, $Apple(AAP

Markets Pause Near Record Highs Ahead of CPI — Is 3.4% the Pass Mark? U.S. stocks are pausing near record highs ahead of today’s July CPI report. The market expects headline inflation to ease to 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.5%. But with expectations for a September rate hike now near 50-50, the details—not just the headline number—could determine whether the rally continues. Previous Data: Numbers and Impact * June CPI: Headline -0.4% MoM / +3.5% YoY; core 0.0% / +2.6% Impact: Lower gasoline and shelter inflation reduced rate-hike fears and supported bonds and technology stocks. * June PCE: Headline -0.1% MoM / +3.7% YoY; core +0.1% / +3.3% Impact: Monthly inflation cooled, but elevated annual PCE kept the Fed cautious. * June JOLTS: Job openings fell to 7.36 million Impact:

The U.S. stock market's surge following a surprisingly weak labor report highlights the counterintuitive mechanism of modern macro trading. When the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 reached a record high of 7,757.64 on August 7, 2026, it demonstrated that in an environment where interest rates and Federal Reserve policy dominate equity valuations, a cooling labor market can act as a catalyst for stock prices. 1. The Mechanics: Why "Bad News" Became "Good News" for Wall Street The term "bad news is good news" describes a market regime where weak macroeconomic data is interpreted positively by investors because it alters the trajectory of monetary policy. The Chain Reaction Behind the August 7 Rally July Labor Contraction: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls unexp

There is no evidence yet that hyperscaler infrastructure spending is slowing materially. The better investment opportunity continues to move toward the physical AI infrastructure chain: REITs — today’s CPI matters considerably to this sector   Soft CPI → lower Treasury yields → positive REIT catalyst. Hot CPI + Brent approaching $90 → higher yields → negative REIT catalyst.

TQQQ

Sign me up keen for the reward cuz

Payrolls Fell 23,000, Yet Stocks Hit a Record — Can Wednesday’s CPI Keep the Rally Going? The U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, but the S&P 500 still closed at a record high. Why? Investors interpreted weaker employment as reducing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Wednesday’s July CPI will now determine whether that “bad news is good news” rally can continue. Recent Economic Data: Cooling Inflation, Weakening Jobs July 14 — June CPI * Headline CPI: -0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY * Core CPI: 0.0% MoM, +2.6% YoY * Gasoline: -9.7% MoM * Shelter: +0.1% MoM Inflation cooled sharply, although much of the improvement came from lower energy prices. July 30 — June PCE * Headline PCE: -0.1% MoM, +3.7% YoY * Core PCE: +0.1% MoM, +3.3% YoY * Real consumer spending: +0.4% The Fe

Hello. Friday's payrolls report was genuinely bad: July payrolls fell by 23,000, the May and June gains were revised down by a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2 per cent year on year. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.62 per cent to a record close. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 1.30 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.28 per cent. Data that bad turned out to be good news, because the market immediately cut the odds of a September rate rise to about 44 per cent. Loosen the rate outlook and valuations get room to breathe: $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ros

Probably **not symmetrically**. Friday's jobs report was bullish because it reduced the perceived need for another Fed hike. July CPI can reinforce that rally if soft, but a hot print would attack the very valuation argument that propelled AI and semiconductors higher. The asymmetry matters. Payrolls fell 23,000 and the prior two months were revised down by 103,000, driving September hike pricing from roughly 67% to 44%. Yet inflation remains the Fed's constraint. RBC notes that services inflation in particular remains the sticking point for an inflation-sensitive Fed.  So I see Wednesday's CPI reaction roughly this way: - **Below expectations:** clearly bullish. It validates Friday's "weak jobs + less Fed tightening" trade. Long-duration growth, AI and semis should benefit most. - **

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Will a surprised weak job report spark a pressure to raise interest rates before end of the year? Or a shock to the market sentiment and a potential correction?  So far a market that is very much news driven by the US/Iran conflict, it has not digest this set of news yet, or it would never affect it at all. But lets see. I remain cautious as the market are breaking higher highs.  @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

Hello. The largest first tranche of any IPO lock-up in US market history came free last night: 911.5 million $SpaceX(SPCX)$ insider shares became eligible to sell, taking the freely tradable count from about 639 million to roughly 1.55 billion in one step. The shares rose 6.14 per cent. The day the selling actually happened wasn't last night. It was the day before. On Wednesday the stock fell 13.61 per cent on about 200 million shares, the heaviest turnover since 18 June; last night volume hit 251 million and set another high, yet the price went up. Heavier volume than Wednesday, and the price went the other way — the people who wanted to sell had mostly finished on Wednesday. Someone went back through three comparable cases: in ea

SpaceX Rallies 6% After Its Lockup Expiration: Is the Next Opportunity in Space Stocks? SpaceX has finally given the public space sector something it has long lacked: a genuine valuation anchor. On August 6, approximately 911.5 million SpaceX shares became eligible for trading. Investors feared that employees and early shareholders would rush to sell, yet after plunging nearly 14% the previous day, $SpaceX(SPCX)$ rebounded 6.1% to close at $114.92. This does not mean the selling pressure is over. By December 8, tradable shares could rise to roughly 40% of SpaceX’s total shares outstanding, leaving the stock exposed to further supply and volatility. Reuters But the more interesting signal came from the rest of the sector.

[Happy]Hi, Tigers! The AI Infra Print Party Is Here 🎉 If you thought the AI trade was running out of steam, Wednesday's earnings just told you otherwise. Three companies. Three different layers of the AI stack. All three blew past expectations — and by the closing bell, the moves were even bigger than the initial after-hours pop suggested. Here's the scoreboard:   The ripple effect was immediate and, by end of session, much bigger than early prints suggested: $NEBIUS(NBIS)$+27-34%, $IREN Ltd(IREN)$+10%, $Coherent(COHR)$+9%, $Ciena(CIEN)$+13%,

When major stock indices hover near all-time highs ahead of crucial inflation data, equity markets resemble a tightly coiled spring. In the days leading up to Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, major benchmarks—including the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Nasdaq Composite—entered a distinct holding pattern. Volume thinned, intraday ranges compressed, and market participants treated the headline inflation figure of 3.4% year-over-year as an absolute "pass mark" required to keep the multi-month bull market intact. Wednesday morning’s release delivered precisely what Wall Street ordered: headline CPI cooled to 3.4% YoY (down from 3.5% in June), while core inflation held

1. CPI delivered the outcome we wanted July US CPI rose just 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.5% in June. Core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and eased to 2.5% year-on-year. This is not enough to declare inflation defeated, but it materially reduces the urgency for another Fed hike. Markets now place roughly a 60% probability on no September rate change, versus approximately 50-50 before CPI. That is a meaningful positive change from yesterday. My concern shifts away from immediate Fed tightening toward two longer-term issues: energy inflation + US bond supply. #1 opportunity — AI infrastructure just received another validation Cisco’s results are important. Fiscal Q4 revenue rose to US$17.25 billion from US$14.67 billion, while net income jumped to US$3.86 billion. More impor

CPI came in roughly in line with expectations, so macro pressure did not get worse. But I think the more important signal today was the tape: $Lumentum(LITE)$ gained more than 13%, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ rose over 8%, and MU added more than 6%. Optical and storage moved together again. 💡 The Setup: The Biggest Macro Risk Didn’t Hit July CPI was 3.4% YoY, while core CPI came in at 2.5%. That is not a huge bullish surprise. But inflation also did not reaccelerate, which matters after weeks of concern around oil, inflation and another round of Fed tightening. For high-multiple AI names, simply avoiding another macro shock was enough to help. 🚀 LITE: This Earnings Report Was Leg

@Daily_Discussion @TheBeautyofOptions @武松打的老虎 Sometimes We Feel It Is Market Manipulation to Force Margin Players Into Margin Calls 📉⚡ Every trader has experienced that uncomfortable feeling. The market suddenly drops before an important economic announcement, social media becomes filled with fear, and news headlines scream about disaster. In those moments it is easy to think, “This must be market manipulation.” When prices fall sharply, especially before major data such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), many investors feel that someone is deliberately pushing prices down to force margin traders into margin calls. Recently, marke

July CPI delivered exactly what markets expected, yet the reaction shows expectations themselves are moving. With headline inflation easing to 3.4% and core to 2.5%, the case for a September hike weakened further, although inflation remains above target and the Fed is still cautious. For me, the next leg depends less on CPI and more on jobs, PCE and energy. Another soft labour report plus benign PCE could push hike expectations even lower, supporting growth stocks and gold. But renewed energy inflation or stronger demand could quickly revive the hawkish trade. So this CPI was not the catalyst. It removed an obstacle. The bigger question is whether the next data confirm a genuine disinflation trend or expose July as another temporary soft patch.

Markets Pause Near Record Highs Ahead of CPI — Is 3.4% the Pass Mark? U.S. stocks are pausing near record highs ahead of today’s July CPI report. The market expects headline inflation to ease to 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.5%. But with expectations for a September rate hike now near 50-50, the details—not just the headline number—could determine whether the rally continues. Previous Data: Numbers and Impact * June CPI: Headline -0.4% MoM / +3.5% YoY; core 0.0% / +2.6% Impact: Lower gasoline and shelter inflation reduced rate-hike fears and supported bonds and technology stocks. * June PCE: Headline -0.1% MoM / +3.7% YoY; core +0.1% / +3.3% Impact: Monthly inflation cooled, but elevated annual PCE kept the Fed cautious. * June JOLTS: Job openings fell to 7.36 million Impact:

Hello. In the last piece Nvidia was out raising up to US$500 billion for AI infrastructure and the market had started asking where the money would come from. Last night we got half an answer: the money is there, but the people putting it up and the people spending it went in opposite directions. The providers all rose: KKR up 6.88 per cent, Apollo 6.26 per cent, Brookfield 4.77 per cent, Blackstone 3.89 per cent and BlackRock 1.54 per cent. The spenders fell for a second day: Alphabet down 3.61 per cent, its fourth decline in five sessions; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ down 2.09 per cent, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 1.5 per cent, $Apple(AAP

Interesting will look for more future updates

The U.S. stock market's surge following a surprisingly weak labor report highlights the counterintuitive mechanism of modern macro trading. When the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 reached a record high of 7,757.64 on August 7, 2026, it demonstrated that in an environment where interest rates and Federal Reserve policy dominate equity valuations, a cooling labor market can act as a catalyst for stock prices. 1. The Mechanics: Why "Bad News" Became "Good News" for Wall Street The term "bad news is good news" describes a market regime where weak macroeconomic data is interpreted positively by investors because it alters the trajectory of monetary policy. The Chain Reaction Behind the August 7 Rally July Labor Contraction: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls unexp

Wow incredible! Rate hike is coming...

Payrolls Fell 23,000, Yet Stocks Hit a Record — Can Wednesday’s CPI Keep the Rally Going? The U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, but the S&P 500 still closed at a record high. Why? Investors interpreted weaker employment as reducing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Wednesday’s July CPI will now determine whether that “bad news is good news” rally can continue. Recent Economic Data: Cooling Inflation, Weakening Jobs July 14 — June CPI * Headline CPI: -0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY * Core CPI: 0.0% MoM, +2.6% YoY * Gasoline: -9.7% MoM * Shelter: +0.1% MoM Inflation cooled sharply, although much of the improvement came from lower energy prices. July 30 — June PCE * Headline PCE: -0.1% MoM, +3.7% YoY * Core PCE: +0.1% MoM, +3.3% YoY * Real consumer spending: +0.4% The Fe

Hello. Friday's payrolls report was genuinely bad: July payrolls fell by 23,000, the May and June gains were revised down by a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2 per cent year on year. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.62 per cent to a record close. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 1.30 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.28 per cent. Data that bad turned out to be good news, because the market immediately cut the odds of a September rate rise to about 44 per cent. Loosen the rate outlook and valuations get room to breathe: $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ros

Probably **not symmetrically**. Friday's jobs report was bullish because it reduced the perceived need for another Fed hike. July CPI can reinforce that rally if soft, but a hot print would attack the very valuation argument that propelled AI and semiconductors higher. The asymmetry matters. Payrolls fell 23,000 and the prior two months were revised down by 103,000, driving September hike pricing from roughly 67% to 44%. Yet inflation remains the Fed's constraint. RBC notes that services inflation in particular remains the sticking point for an inflation-sensitive Fed.  So I see Wednesday's CPI reaction roughly this way: - **Below expectations:** clearly bullish. It validates Friday's "weak jobs + less Fed tightening" trade. Long-duration growth, AI and semis should benefit most. - **

There is no evidence yet that hyperscaler infrastructure spending is slowing materially. The better investment opportunity continues to move toward the physical AI infrastructure chain: REITs — today’s CPI matters considerably to this sector   Soft CPI → lower Treasury yields → positive REIT catalyst. Hot CPI + Brent approaching $90 → higher yields → negative REIT catalyst.

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Will a surprised weak job report spark a pressure to raise interest rates before end of the year? Or a shock to the market sentiment and a potential correction?  So far a market that is very much news driven by the US/Iran conflict, it has not digest this set of news yet, or it would never affect it at all. But lets see. I remain cautious as the market are breaking higher highs.  @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

TQQQ

SpaceX Rallies 6% After Its Lockup Expiration: Is the Next Opportunity in Space Stocks? SpaceX has finally given the public space sector something it has long lacked: a genuine valuation anchor. On August 6, approximately 911.5 million SpaceX shares became eligible for trading. Investors feared that employees and early shareholders would rush to sell, yet after plunging nearly 14% the previous day, $SpaceX(SPCX)$ rebounded 6.1% to close at $114.92. This does not mean the selling pressure is over. By December 8, tradable shares could rise to roughly 40% of SpaceX’s total shares outstanding, leaving the stock exposed to further supply and volatility. Reuters But the more interesting signal came from the rest of the sector.

Hello. The largest first tranche of any IPO lock-up in US market history came free last night: 911.5 million $SpaceX(SPCX)$ insider shares became eligible to sell, taking the freely tradable count from about 639 million to roughly 1.55 billion in one step. The shares rose 6.14 per cent. The day the selling actually happened wasn't last night. It was the day before. On Wednesday the stock fell 13.61 per cent on about 200 million shares, the heaviest turnover since 18 June; last night volume hit 251 million and set another high, yet the price went up. Heavier volume than Wednesday, and the price went the other way — the people who wanted to sell had mostly finished on Wednesday. Someone went back through three comparable cases: in ea

Sign me up keen for the reward cuz