To The Moon

I will wait for next opportunity

$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$   $Micron Technology(MU)$   $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   High-beta stocks are doing exactly what they are designed to do when risk appetite returns: move faster than the market. But that creates a dangerous psychological trap. The stronger the rally becomes, the easier it is to believe that waiting means missing out. I see it differently. Beta tells me how fast a stock may move. It does not tell me whether the price is worth paying. So I am not asking which hig

Is quantitive easing not already happening? The deal INTC and the us govt in Aug 2025 for 10% stake, back when INTC was $20. Has the same thing been happening on other scales we aren't aware of?

If you’ve been watching the markets lately, you must heard of Rate Hike. So what is the next? On October 2, we are getting the latest U.S. Unemployment Rate. Source from Trading Economics What is the Fed Actually Looking At? When the Federal Reserve sits down to decide on interest rates, they look at two main things : Inflation: Are prices of everyday goods and services getting too expensive too fast? Employment: Are people keeping their jobs, and is the labor market healthy? Lately, the Fed’s challenge has been elevated inflation alongside a relatively resilient job market. Even with higher interest rates weighing on parts of the economy, employment has continued to grow while wage growth has stayed positive. Resilient household incomes and consumer spending can support demand, making it

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ With yields continue to climb, no ease in political tensions between US and the rest of world, the consistant high prices of oil and diesel, the market seem to be resilent and still holding strong. Let’s see how long this bottleneck can hold before it breaks. We are heading into the “traditional” bear market period of the year. And with two more Fed announcements coming up, who knows which direction this market is going to swing? @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]

Everyone's Waiting For QE. Warsh Won't Print. Here's The Lever I'd Watch Instead. Mathematical Money | September 25, 2026 The Treasury went into the market on Wednesday and bought back its own long bonds. Up to $6 billion of 20- to 30-year paper. Second time in a fortnight. The 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15 basis points, the highest it's been since 2007. The 30-year did the same. Think about what that means for a second. The single largest issuer of long-duration debt on the planet showed up as a buyer of its own paper, twice, and the yield went up. That's not a liquidity problem you fix with six billion dollars. That's the market telling you something about who's willing to own thirty-year duration at these levels, and the answer is fewer people than there used to be. Scott Bessent said

🌟🌟🌟The Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE report is scheduled to be released on September 30 2026.  The 10 year US Treasury yield has just violently broken through 5.5%, carving out a fresh multi year decade high.  This sudden spike signals that institutional bond investors are completely losing faith that inflation is under control. The New York Fed President John Williams warned that it is entirely reasonable to expect another interest rate hike by the end of the year.    This hawkish stance, arriving right on the heels of the Fed lifting its benchmark rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, has sent the 10 Year Treasury yield violently ripping past 5.5%. How 5.5% Yields Crush High Valuations  When government bond yields break out to multi decade high of 5.5%, it triggers

I’d go with C — tech and semiconductors staying strong. If the leaders keep holding up and participation broadens, that would look more convincing than a rally driven purely by falling yields. 👀

The Fed raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16th, which is not the end of the interest rate hike cycle, but more like the prelude. The first rate hike by new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh is likely just an appetizer.

When the 10-year treasury stabilizes by more than 5 percent, the chain effect immediately shows: the 30-year fixed rate has risen to 7.12 percent (the new two-year high), the cost of financing for enterprises and the interest rate of consumer credit are simultaneously tightening. Financial conditions are real-time tightening

For me, the 10-year Treasury at 5.1% is already a level where I start redoing the equity math. At 5.25%, I would become more selective on high-valuation growth stocks, because the risk-free alternative becomes increasingly attractive and higher discount rates put more pressure on valuations. If the 10-year approaches 5.5% without a corresponding acceleration in earnings growth, I would favour stronger cash flows, reasonable valuations and balance-sheet quality rather than chasing momentum. The key question is why yields are rising. Strong economic growth accompanied by stronger earnings is much easier for equities to absorb than a rise driven mainly by persistent inflation, Fed tightening expectations and Treasury supply. So my levels are: 5.25% = reassess; 5.5% = much higher hurdle for eq

Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have experienced persistent upward pressure, repeatedly testing multi-decade highs. This structural shift is driven by a fundamental imbalance between massive federal debt issuance and constrained private sector absorption capacity. In this article, we would like to share how we can synthesizes the core drivers (supply/demand imbalances, buyback limitations, supply-side inflation) and investment conclusions. The article would have the following Core Analysis Highlights: Supply vs. Buybacks: Explains why Treasury buybacks are liquidity-neutral operations that cannot counteract net issuance expansions. Yield Resistance: Analyzes natural macro limits including debt-servicing constraints, Treasury auction mix shifts (T-Bill reliance), and economic reflexivity. Vo

The AI Fortress Cracks — 30Y Yields at 5.44% Drag the Mag 7 into the Same Fire That Torched Everything Else One thing has held this market up for months and the legs are getting wobbly. Mega-cap Tech and AI absorbed the capital while everything rate-sensitive got crushed. NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO — the Mag 7 and the AI complex (SMCI, ARM, TSM) vacuumed up every free dollar. The rest of the tape? Rate-sensitive cyclicals, regional banks, REITs, homebuilders, small caps — all left for dead. That worked as long as AI stayed insulated from the macro. The 30Y just hit 5.44%, its highest since 2004. Nasdaq futures are down close to a point. That is not a minor tick. When the long end of the curve is screaming like this, duration gets repriced and the high-multiple growth names f

Everyone is talking about the 10-year Treasury hitting 5.11%. But I think the more interesting part is what happened after the Treasury stepped in to buy bonds. You would normally expect extra demand to help push prices higher and yields lower. Instead, yields kept climbing. That raises a different question: Is the bond market telling us something that the stock market hasn’t fully priced in yet? Maybe investors are simply demanding more yield to hold long-term debt. Maybe expectations for inflation and growth have changed. Or maybe the market is starting to worry about the sheer amount of debt that needs to be absorbed. Whatever the reason, this isn’t just a bond-market story. Higher long-term yields affect mortgages, corporate borrowing, valuations and the cost of capital across the econ

The indices: three directions the day before, one direction now All three indices closed lower on Wednesday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite fell 1.13 per cent to 26,936.04, down 308.24 points on the day, giving back the record it had set in the previous session; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.75 per cent to 7,706.03, down 58.61 points; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.68 per cent to 51,511.59, down 352.10 points. The previous session had the three running separately — the Nasdaq closing at a record, the Dow lower, the S&P 500 finishing flat to within 0.06 points. A day later they were back on the same heading, a

Memory stocks have been one of the hottest parts of the AI trade, but Michael Burry is leaning the other way. Burry has continued to add to his bearish exposure on $Micron Technology(MU), even as DRAM pricing remains firm and AI-related demand stays strong. What makes the trade interesting is the timing: he is not shorting memory because the current fundamentals look weak. He appears to be betting that today’s strength eventually creates tomorrow’s oversupply. That is the core debate in memory right now. The bullish case is straightforward. AI servers need more HBM, more server DRAM and more enterprise SSD capacity. Hyperscalers are still expanding infrastructure, memory content per server keeps rising, and supply remains tight in several key categories. In that environment, strong pricing

As the tech-heavy $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Nasdaq Composite breaches new record highs, a critical structural divergence has emerged under the market surface. While major capitalization benchmarks suggest robust equity health, participation metrics reveal a strikingly narrow advance: fewer than half of Nasdaq constituents trade above their 200-day moving average. In this article, we would like to go through these points on why Nasdaq breaches new record highs yet fewer than half of Nasdaq constituents trade above their 200-day moving average. Market Anatomy — Breakdown of index concentration, market breadth metrics (only ~48% of stocks above 200-day SMA), and structural divergence. Sectors, Stock Focus & AI Narrative — In-depth analysis of three convic

pls be B. wait wait wait till i revalue my loan in sept 2027. if it goes up. maybe is time to clear the loan. let me talk to my partner nearer the date.

Apple’s latest Mac update is about more than faster hardware. The new Mac mini and Mac Studio are being positioned as machines that can run AI agents, large language models and enterprise workflows locally. The high-end Mac Studio can support up to 512GB of unified memory, while multiple Macs can be linked together for distributed inference. Apple has even demonstrated four Mac Studios running a trillion-parameter model using a standard wall outlet. The more interesting part is how Apple is selling the economics. Cloud AI usually charges by usage. The more tokens a company consumes, the more it pays. Apple’s pitch is different: buy the hardware once, then keep running workloads locally without paying for every model call. That matters when AI usage becomes frequent. If an enterprise agent

The indices: three of them, three directions On Tuesday the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 0.45 per cent higher at 27,244.28, up 122.18 points on the day and a second straight close at a record; the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed 0.36 per cent lower at 51,863.69, down 185.14 points, with $Cisco(CSCO)$, $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and American Express leading the fallers at 4.50 per cent, 3.35 per cent and 2.62 per cent lower respectively; and the S&P 500 finished at 7,764.64, just 0.06 points below the 7,764.70 it closed at the previous session. That list of Dow f

I will wait for next opportunity

$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$   $Micron Technology(MU)$   $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   High-beta stocks are doing exactly what they are designed to do when risk appetite returns: move faster than the market. But that creates a dangerous psychological trap. The stronger the rally becomes, the easier it is to believe that waiting means missing out. I see it differently. Beta tells me how fast a stock may move. It does not tell me whether the price is worth paying. So I am not asking which hig

Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have experienced persistent upward pressure, repeatedly testing multi-decade highs. This structural shift is driven by a fundamental imbalance between massive federal debt issuance and constrained private sector absorption capacity. In this article, we would like to share how we can synthesizes the core drivers (supply/demand imbalances, buyback limitations, supply-side inflation) and investment conclusions. The article would have the following Core Analysis Highlights: Supply vs. Buybacks: Explains why Treasury buybacks are liquidity-neutral operations that cannot counteract net issuance expansions. Yield Resistance: Analyzes natural macro limits including debt-servicing constraints, Treasury auction mix shifts (T-Bill reliance), and economic reflexivity. Vo

🌟🌟🌟The Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE report is scheduled to be released on September 30 2026.  The 10 year US Treasury yield has just violently broken through 5.5%, carving out a fresh multi year decade high.  This sudden spike signals that institutional bond investors are completely losing faith that inflation is under control. The New York Fed President John Williams warned that it is entirely reasonable to expect another interest rate hike by the end of the year.    This hawkish stance, arriving right on the heels of the Fed lifting its benchmark rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, has sent the 10 Year Treasury yield violently ripping past 5.5%. How 5.5% Yields Crush High Valuations  When government bond yields break out to multi decade high of 5.5%, it triggers

Everyone's Waiting For QE. Warsh Won't Print. Here's The Lever I'd Watch Instead. Mathematical Money | September 25, 2026 The Treasury went into the market on Wednesday and bought back its own long bonds. Up to $6 billion of 20- to 30-year paper. Second time in a fortnight. The 10-year closed at 5.11%, up 15 basis points, the highest it's been since 2007. The 30-year did the same. Think about what that means for a second. The single largest issuer of long-duration debt on the planet showed up as a buyer of its own paper, twice, and the yield went up. That's not a liquidity problem you fix with six billion dollars. That's the market telling you something about who's willing to own thirty-year duration at these levels, and the answer is fewer people than there used to be. Scott Bessent said

If you’ve been watching the markets lately, you must heard of Rate Hike. So what is the next? On October 2, we are getting the latest U.S. Unemployment Rate. Source from Trading Economics What is the Fed Actually Looking At? When the Federal Reserve sits down to decide on interest rates, they look at two main things : Inflation: Are prices of everyday goods and services getting too expensive too fast? Employment: Are people keeping their jobs, and is the labor market healthy? Lately, the Fed’s challenge has been elevated inflation alongside a relatively resilient job market. Even with higher interest rates weighing on parts of the economy, employment has continued to grow while wage growth has stayed positive. Resilient household incomes and consumer spending can support demand, making it

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ With yields continue to climb, no ease in political tensions between US and the rest of world, the consistant high prices of oil and diesel, the market seem to be resilent and still holding strong. Let’s see how long this bottleneck can hold before it breaks. We are heading into the “traditional” bear market period of the year. And with two more Fed announcements coming up, who knows which direction this market is going to swing? @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]

As the tech-heavy $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Nasdaq Composite breaches new record highs, a critical structural divergence has emerged under the market surface. While major capitalization benchmarks suggest robust equity health, participation metrics reveal a strikingly narrow advance: fewer than half of Nasdaq constituents trade above their 200-day moving average. In this article, we would like to go through these points on why Nasdaq breaches new record highs yet fewer than half of Nasdaq constituents trade above their 200-day moving average. Market Anatomy — Breakdown of index concentration, market breadth metrics (only ~48% of stocks above 200-day SMA), and structural divergence. Sectors, Stock Focus & AI Narrative — In-depth analysis of three convic

Memory stocks have been one of the hottest parts of the AI trade, but Michael Burry is leaning the other way. Burry has continued to add to his bearish exposure on $Micron Technology(MU), even as DRAM pricing remains firm and AI-related demand stays strong. What makes the trade interesting is the timing: he is not shorting memory because the current fundamentals look weak. He appears to be betting that today’s strength eventually creates tomorrow’s oversupply. That is the core debate in memory right now. The bullish case is straightforward. AI servers need more HBM, more server DRAM and more enterprise SSD capacity. Hyperscalers are still expanding infrastructure, memory content per server keeps rising, and supply remains tight in several key categories. In that environment, strong pricing

The indices: three directions the day before, one direction now All three indices closed lower on Wednesday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite fell 1.13 per cent to 26,936.04, down 308.24 points on the day, giving back the record it had set in the previous session; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.75 per cent to 7,706.03, down 58.61 points; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.68 per cent to 51,511.59, down 352.10 points. The previous session had the three running separately — the Nasdaq closing at a record, the Dow lower, the S&P 500 finishing flat to within 0.06 points. A day later they were back on the same heading, a

Nasdaq at a record. How many stocks are actually driving it? A breadth check through my sell-put lens Written Wednesday morning SGT, using Tuesday's US close. The headline On Monday, the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.26% for a record close of 27,122.09, its first since June. It did it again on Tuesday: the tech-heavy index gained 0.45% to 27,244.28, while the S&P 500 closed relatively flat at 7,764.64. The Nasdaq-100 crossed the 30,000 level on September 21. That's what the index did. The stocks inside it tell a different story. The breadth data On Monday, the S&P 500 had seven new 52-week highs and 24 new lows. On the Nasdaq, there were 64 new 52-week highs and 127 new lows. Put simply, the index jumped while about twice as many Nasdaq stocks hit fresh 52-week lows as highs. It goes d

The AI Fortress Cracks — 30Y Yields at 5.44% Drag the Mag 7 into the Same Fire That Torched Everything Else One thing has held this market up for months and the legs are getting wobbly. Mega-cap Tech and AI absorbed the capital while everything rate-sensitive got crushed. NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, META, AVGO — the Mag 7 and the AI complex (SMCI, ARM, TSM) vacuumed up every free dollar. The rest of the tape? Rate-sensitive cyclicals, regional banks, REITs, homebuilders, small caps — all left for dead. That worked as long as AI stayed insulated from the macro. The 30Y just hit 5.44%, its highest since 2004. Nasdaq futures are down close to a point. That is not a minor tick. When the long end of the curve is screaming like this, duration gets repriced and the high-multiple growth names f

Apple’s latest Mac update is about more than faster hardware. The new Mac mini and Mac Studio are being positioned as machines that can run AI agents, large language models and enterprise workflows locally. The high-end Mac Studio can support up to 512GB of unified memory, while multiple Macs can be linked together for distributed inference. Apple has even demonstrated four Mac Studios running a trillion-parameter model using a standard wall outlet. The more interesting part is how Apple is selling the economics. Cloud AI usually charges by usage. The more tokens a company consumes, the more it pays. Apple’s pitch is different: buy the hardware once, then keep running workloads locally without paying for every model call. That matters when AI usage becomes frequent. If an enterprise agent

Is quantitive easing not already happening? The deal INTC and the us govt in Aug 2025 for 10% stake, back when INTC was $20. Has the same thing been happening on other scales we aren't aware of?

The indices: three of them, three directions On Tuesday the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 0.45 per cent higher at 27,244.28, up 122.18 points on the day and a second straight close at a record; the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed 0.36 per cent lower at 51,863.69, down 185.14 points, with $Cisco(CSCO)$, $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and American Express leading the fallers at 4.50 per cent, 3.35 per cent and 2.62 per cent lower respectively; and the S&P 500 finished at 7,764.64, just 0.06 points below the 7,764.70 it closed at the previous session. That list of Dow f

For me, the 10-year Treasury at 5.1% is already a level where I start redoing the equity math. At 5.25%, I would become more selective on high-valuation growth stocks, because the risk-free alternative becomes increasingly attractive and higher discount rates put more pressure on valuations. If the 10-year approaches 5.5% without a corresponding acceleration in earnings growth, I would favour stronger cash flows, reasonable valuations and balance-sheet quality rather than chasing momentum. The key question is why yields are rising. Strong economic growth accompanied by stronger earnings is much easier for equities to absorb than a rise driven mainly by persistent inflation, Fed tightening expectations and Treasury supply. So my levels are: 5.25% = reassess; 5.5% = much higher hurdle for eq

The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite closed 2.3 per cent higher on Monday at a record, its first since June; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 1.49 per cent higher at 7,764.70, which leaves it 0.4 per cent short of its own record; the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed 0.7 per cent higher. What brought risk appetite back was falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields, and no company put out an announcement that day big enough to move the whole market. The $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ rose 4.3 per cent, a fifth straight session of gains. The distance that opened up

AI may be moving from “answering questions” to actually doing work — and that could make CPUs important again. The latest AI trade is no longer just about GPUs. Meta’s new AI agent, Muse, has pushed investors to rethink what the next phase of AI infrastructure may actually require. Why?Because an AI agent does much more than generate an answer. It may need to:open a browser,search the web,fill out forms,call APIs,run tools,manage files,and keep working in the background for minutes or even hours. That changes the compute equation. For a chatbot, the workflow is relatively simple: Prompt → GPU inference → Response For an AI agent, it looks more like: Think → Browse → Execute → Check → Think Again → Continue GPUs still handle the heavy model inference. But many of the surrounding workloads —

Everyone is talking about the 10-year Treasury hitting 5.11%. But I think the more interesting part is what happened after the Treasury stepped in to buy bonds. You would normally expect extra demand to help push prices higher and yields lower. Instead, yields kept climbing. That raises a different question: Is the bond market telling us something that the stock market hasn’t fully priced in yet? Maybe investors are simply demanding more yield to hold long-term debt. Maybe expectations for inflation and growth have changed. Or maybe the market is starting to worry about the sheer amount of debt that needs to be absorbed. Whatever the reason, this isn’t just a bond-market story. Higher long-term yields affect mortgages, corporate borrowing, valuations and the cost of capital across the econ

When the 10-year treasury stabilizes by more than 5 percent, the chain effect immediately shows: the 30-year fixed rate has risen to 7.12 percent (the new two-year high), the cost of financing for enterprises and the interest rate of consumer credit are simultaneously tightening. Financial conditions are real-time tightening