To The Moon

The World Cup kicks off on June 11, and every time it comes around, someone digs up that old “curse” chart: over the past eight World Cups, the Nasdaq fell during five of them, with an average return of -1.2%. The measurement window is from the close before the opening match to the close of the first trading day after the final $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ - 1994, United States: -1.7% - 1998, France: +9.2% - 2002, Korea/Japan: -13.1% - 2006, Germany: -1.3% - 2010, South Africa: -0.9% - 2014, Brazil: +2.5% - 2018, Russia: +1.4% - 2022, Qatar: -5.4% So it’s 5 down, 3 up. More red than green. But once you look at the backdrop, the story is obvious: 2002 was still dealing with the aftermath of the dot-com bust, 2022 was hit by the Fed’s aggressive

So it’s 5 down, 3 up. More red than green. But once you look at the backdrop, the story is obvious: 2002 was still dealing with the aftermath of the dot-com bust, 2022 was hit by the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, and that +9.2% in 1998 was simply the tech bull market doing its thing. The matches go on, but the market trades on its own logic. The World Cup is background noise, not the engine.

I don’t really believe in the World Cup curse. Looking at the past tournaments, the market performance was driven much more by macro conditions than football. The dot-com crash, Fed rate hikes, and earnings cycles mattered far more than what was happening on the pitch. Correlation doesn’t always mean causation. What I do think is real is the impact on liquidity. With matches being played during U.S. trading hours this year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see lighter volumes and more short-term volatility. Traders are fans too, and attention is a limited resource. My biggest winner is still the sports betting ecosystem. The World Cup is a massive customer-acquisition event, and companies like DraftKings, Flutter, Sportradar, and Genius Sports could see a surge in engagement. That said, I’m als

I don't put much weight on the "World Cup curse." Football can affect short-term investor sentiment, especially after major wins or losses, but markets are ultimately driven by earnings, interest rates, inflation, liquidity, and economic growth. A national team crashing out might cause a brief dip in local stocks, but it is usually a sentiment effect rather than a fundamental one. The impact tends to be small and temporary. For the current market, I think macro matters far more than football: • Fed rate expectations • AI spending cycle • Corporate earnings • Geopolitical risks • Global liquidity Biggest winner? Usually not the winning country's stock market. I'd look at sectors that directly benefit from the tournament: broadcasters, advertisers, travel, hospitality, sportswear, and betti

The World Cup kicks off on June 11, and every time it comes around, someone digs up that old “curse” chart: over the past eight World Cups, the Nasdaq fell during five of them, with an average return of -1.2%. The measurement window is from the close before the opening match to the close of the first trading day after the final $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ - 1994, United States: -1.7% - 1998, France: +9.2% - 2002, Korea/Japan: -13.1% - 2006, Germany: -1.3% - 2010, South Africa: -0.9% - 2014, Brazil: +2.5% - 2018, Russia: +1.4% - 2022, Qatar: -5.4% So it’s 5 down, 3 up. More red than green. But once you look at the backdrop, the story is obvious: 2002 was still dealing with the aftermath of the dot-com bust, 2022 was hit by the Fed’s aggressive

I don’t really believe in the World Cup curse. Looking at the past tournaments, the market performance was driven much more by macro conditions than football. The dot-com crash, Fed rate hikes, and earnings cycles mattered far more than what was happening on the pitch. Correlation doesn’t always mean causation. What I do think is real is the impact on liquidity. With matches being played during U.S. trading hours this year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see lighter volumes and more short-term volatility. Traders are fans too, and attention is a limited resource. My biggest winner is still the sports betting ecosystem. The World Cup is a massive customer-acquisition event, and companies like DraftKings, Flutter, Sportradar, and Genius Sports could see a surge in engagement. That said, I’m als

I don't put much weight on the "World Cup curse." Football can affect short-term investor sentiment, especially after major wins or losses, but markets are ultimately driven by earnings, interest rates, inflation, liquidity, and economic growth. A national team crashing out might cause a brief dip in local stocks, but it is usually a sentiment effect rather than a fundamental one. The impact tends to be small and temporary. For the current market, I think macro matters far more than football: • Fed rate expectations • AI spending cycle • Corporate earnings • Geopolitical risks • Global liquidity Biggest winner? Usually not the winning country's stock market. I'd look at sectors that directly benefit from the tournament: broadcasters, advertisers, travel, hospitality, sportswear, and betti

So it’s 5 down, 3 up. More red than green. But once you look at the backdrop, the story is obvious: 2002 was still dealing with the aftermath of the dot-com bust, 2022 was hit by the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, and that +9.2% in 1998 was simply the tech bull market doing its thing. The matches go on, but the market trades on its own logic. The World Cup is background noise, not the engine.