DRAM Stuck in Bear Market — What Conditions Must Align for Memory Stocks to Rebound?
Memory stayed under pressure Friday: Micron -0.66%, now 18%+ off its YTD high; SanDisk -1.72%, SK Hynix -0.86%, the DRAM ETF deep in bear territory. HBM demand is absorbed almost entirely by Nvidia's chain, leaving conventional DRAM oversupplied; server procurement has shifted toward AI at standard memory's expense; consumer demand shows no recovery. Bulls say HBM share gains from Samsung or SK Hynix could surprise on earnings; bears say AI-driven HBM has distorted the recovery cycle, making conventional DRAM timing far harder than before. Where's the DRAM floor, and what signal calls it?