To The Moon

My Investing Muse (27Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news The American job market faces its deepest pessimism since the 2008–09 Great Recession, per CNN A total of 249,152 individual Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings were made in the first nine months of this year in the United States, an increase of 15%, per the American Bankruptcy Institute. - X user Unusual Whales Many Hitchcock’s stores are holding 30% off sales and plan to close at the end of October. Some locations will reopen about a month later under the Winn-Dixie brand. - The Street Initial jobless claims filed by federal workers spiked +121% week-over-week, reaching 7,244 in the week ending October 11th, the highest since the 2019 government shutdown. While the Labor Department has paused its weekly reports, state-level data

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 27Oct25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, China and America in the coming week. Hong Kong celebrates the Chung Yeung Festival on 29Oct25 Hong Kong Public Holiday: The 29th of October will be a public holiday in Hong Kong to observe Chung Yeung Day. It is known as the Double Ninth Festival and is a day for honouring ancestors and caring for the elderly. Key Economic Announcements and Market Indicators The upcoming week will feature several key economic announcements providing insights into the current state of the economy, monetary policy, and sector-specific performance. Monetary Policy and Inflation The most significant event will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s interest rate dec

GM all DM cm you reman eh EV can m can be can cm can end at UK I of glass can be good

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The U.S. government shutdown continues to ripple through the economy. Since entering shutdown mode on October 1, select federal agencies have halted normal operations, delaying data releases and curtailing government contracts and project spending. Key economic indicators—like employment and manufacturing reports—are proving hard to release on time, reducing market visibility. That said, CPI data is still slated for release on October 24, thanks to the Labor Department recalling some staff to compile it (to avoid unduly influencing the Fed). Meanwhile, several state economies are showing contraction signals, with heavyweights like California and New York nearing inflection points.Tariff threats are reigniting tensions. Trump posted on social

Yesterday was one of those whirlwind days where everything blurred together — errands to run, tasks to finish, and time slipping away faster than I could catch it. By midday, my focus was so scattered that I completely forgot I even had a Tiger Brokers account. It wasn’t until the evening, when the pace of the day finally slowed, that the thought suddenly resurfaced like a forgotten to-do list item floating to the top of my mind: “Wait... my stocks!” I opened the Tiger Brokers app and began scrolling through my portfolio, not expecting much after such a long, busy day. To my quiet relief, the numbers were green. SOXS, TLT, and TLH were behind the gain. SOXS had made a decent move upward, while TLT and TLH were gently positive — nothing huge, but enough to tilt the balance in my favor. iSha

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ While it hasn't surged in this wave of semiconductor FOMO, it perfectly embodies the old adage: "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step." Recent Microsoft research offers eye-opening insights from direct feedback of 300 CIOs. The standout data lies in software spending: 2025 IT budgets remain steady at +3.6%, with software leading the charge at +3.8%; the 2026 outlook shows overall budgets accelerating slightly to +3.8%, and software to +3.9%. Microsoft's steady, "slow-burner" growth—averaging +4.1% over the past decade—hits the sweet spot.For MSFT, the biggest prize is GenAI.AI/ML remains firmly atop CIOs' priority list, with hyperscalers emerging as preferred partners and Microsoft leading the pack. Research in

The upcoming week will be pivotal for sentiment, as markets balance between monetary optimism and valuation fatigue. Let us examine the key dynamics. --- 1. Policy Outlook — Will the Fed Cut Again in October? A second consecutive 25 bps cut in October is possible but not guaranteed. Arguments for a cut: The government shutdown, now in its sixth day, may dampen short-term GDP growth. Leading indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and consumer sentiment have softened. Real yields remain elevated, tightening financial conditions despite prior easing. Arguments against a cut: Powell explicitly noted “upside risks to inflation.” Core PCE remains sticky around 2.9%—3.0%, above the Fed’s comfort zone. Cutting too aggressively could undermine the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility and trig

As we move into the second half of 2025, Hong Kong’s financial spotlight has quietly shifted toward the convergence of digital assets and traditional finance. According to The South China Morning Post, southbound capital inflows through Stock Connect surged past HKD 866.8 billion in the first 7 months of the year—already exceeding the full-year total of 2024 by more than 7 percent. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar briefly strengthened to 7.79 against the U.S. dollar, an unexpected move that forced the HKMA to step in once again to defend its currency peg.Money is flowing back, exchange-rate volatility is rising, and one message is clear: Hong Kong is entering a new era of financial-infrastructure reform. And right in the middle of this transformation, a new player is quietly emerging—the Ho

Good Luck to the winning.. 

Bullish for ai shares still

Yes another 25bps in Oct... Slow and steady wins the race. If everything is within expectations, market goes up. Sentiment is not exuberance yet. Fear and greed index is only neutral 53. Fear and greed index is a reflection of market sentiment and leans towards institutional more than retail. Big money is still hiding somewhere.  The market is going up in the short to mid term, or at least until fear and greed index goes to greed or extreme greed. Any dips will be shallow and bought up quickly.

Equities continue to hit all-time highs despite dismal consumer sentiment, rising loan delinquencies, and a faltering jobs market. Headline GDP growth is robust, but is primarily being driven by the surge in tech spending due to the AI revolution and large fiscal deficit spending. However, there is considerable weakness in many other core parts of the economy, including residential and commercial real estate.

good article

The current setup in global markets is delicately poised — and investors are right to weigh whether policy easing is nearing its limit and whether sentiment has turned euphoric. Let us examine the scenario systematically: --- 1. Probability of Another 25 bps Cut in October The September rate cut (−25 bps) marked a cautious pivot by the Federal Reserve, intended to support slowing growth while acknowledging residual inflation pressures. Current data mix: Core inflation remains sticky (~3.1–3.3%), while labour-market indicators are softening (rising jobless claims, slower payroll additions). Fed officials’ rhetoric: Recent speeches have leaned data-dependent rather than overtly dovish. Market pricing: Fed funds futures currently imply roughly a 40–45% probability of another 25 bps cut in Oct

The market right now is walking a tightrope. The U.S. economy is still stronger than many thought it would be, with low unemployment and solid consumer spending, but inflation hasn’t fully gone away. That means the Federal Reserve can’t yet declare victory. Rate cuts are likely on the horizon, but the timing is tricky — cut too soon, and inflation could flare back up. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe is weaker, with sluggish growth, so the European Central Bank is being extra cautious. If the Fed moves faster than the ECB, the dollar could strengthen, which adds another twist for global investors. So how do you play this? The smart buys mix defense with selective growth. U.S. Treasuries and gold are attractive safe havens — they work whether the economy lands softly or hits turbul

Investors Are Paying a Premium for $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Oracle(ORCL)$ Not Because They're Making Money, But Because They're Spending ItListen up, folks—when investors shell out extra for Nvidia and Oracle, it's not about the profits rolling in today. It's about the cash they're burning through like there's no tomorrow. That's the hallmark of a classic cycle: when an industry hits that "strategically irreplaceable" sweet spot, capital rewards the spenders first, not the earners. The AI investment loop is so damn resilient because this "spending makes sense" vibe is holding strong—for now.Over the past year, the flow of AI capital has flipped on its head, hard.Phase one? Software frenzy—big models, agents, C

Maybe it is a good thing for the stock market as there are no more govt reports during shutdown. Now the sentiment for more rate cuts is still high.

【SRT】 As of 3 Oct 2025 (Fri), SRT gained 2.73% WTD in SGD, and rose 14.41% YTD in SGD. YTD gains were led by industrial, retail and office by subsector and CICT, MPACT and MLT by individual REITs. CICT rose as it surpassed Hong Kong’s Link Reit as Asia’s largest REIT, driven by a S$600M August private placement to acquire the remaining 55% stake in CapitaSpring, amid peak rate optimism. Meanwhile, MPACT rose after CGSI increased its price target and kept its add rating on tailwinds of falling interest rate as most of the REIT’s debt is denominated in SGD. $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S$(SRT.SI)$ 2025 YTD Total Return: +14.41% 【MMF】 Despite a US government shutdown which began 1 Oct 2025, the Treasury Department can still pay coupons and auction debts w

Fed FOMC minutes amid shutdown, and we are hearing report that Fed is set to drive global rate cuts as Europe shifts to pause. Market consensus of two more rate cuts before year-end remain in play, but will FOMC minutes hold this consensus or Fed is ready to go further. Here is a refined view on whether the consensus of two more Fed rate cuts by year-end is likely — and how the shutdown complicates things: What the Fed just signaled & market expectations At the September meeting, the Fed cut rates 25 bps and signaled two more cuts this year, bringing the dot plot median to a 3.50%–3.75% terminal range by end-2025. Market pricing (via rate futures) currently implies a high probability (~89%) of a 25 bps cut in October and further easing in December. In the FOMC minutes from July, severa

All political, although the politicians said they are fighting fir Americans interests vut not their pockets See how Trumps squeezed your stock price, bought your shares then said you are good afterall American style of doing business

My Investing Muse (27Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news The American job market faces its deepest pessimism since the 2008–09 Great Recession, per CNN A total of 249,152 individual Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings were made in the first nine months of this year in the United States, an increase of 15%, per the American Bankruptcy Institute. - X user Unusual Whales Many Hitchcock’s stores are holding 30% off sales and plan to close at the end of October. Some locations will reopen about a month later under the Winn-Dixie brand. - The Street Initial jobless claims filed by federal workers spiked +121% week-over-week, reaching 7,244 in the week ending October 11th, the highest since the 2019 government shutdown. While the Labor Department has paused its weekly reports, state-level data

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The U.S. government shutdown continues to ripple through the economy. Since entering shutdown mode on October 1, select federal agencies have halted normal operations, delaying data releases and curtailing government contracts and project spending. Key economic indicators—like employment and manufacturing reports—are proving hard to release on time, reducing market visibility. That said, CPI data is still slated for release on October 24, thanks to the Labor Department recalling some staff to compile it (to avoid unduly influencing the Fed). Meanwhile, several state economies are showing contraction signals, with heavyweights like California and New York nearing inflection points.Tariff threats are reigniting tensions. Trump posted on social

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The U.S. stock market has entered the final quarter of the year with optimism, momentum, and no shortage of debate. After a surprisingly resilient September rally, investors are now asking the inevitable question: does October continue the trend, or is a correction finally due? History offers mixed clues. September and October are notorious for volatility, with October in particular having witnessed some of the most infamous market crashes in history—1929, 1987, 2008. At the same time, October has often marked turning points where new bull markets begin. This year, the S&P 500 is up 13.25% year-to-date through September, a solid performance by any standard. Yet it still lags last year’s blistering 20% YTD pace by this time, when

📈 September Rally, October Crash? Is This Bull Still Young or Getting Old? 🚀 Introduction – Defying Expectations Heading into September, many investors braced for a pullback. After all, history isn’t kind: September and October are notorious for volatility, with October often called the “jinx month” of markets. Yet once again, U.S. equities surprised to the upside. The S&P 500 ($SPX) climbed through September, extending the 2025 rally. Now the real question is: will October continue the bull charge, or are we on the edge of correction territory? --- 1️⃣ A Look at the Numbers SPX YTD performance: +13.25% (vs. +20% by this time last year). September 2025: Another positive month, despite widespread caution. October history: Red in 10 of the past 15 years, making it statistically the weake

Investors Are Paying a Premium for $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Oracle(ORCL)$ Not Because They're Making Money, But Because They're Spending ItListen up, folks—when investors shell out extra for Nvidia and Oracle, it's not about the profits rolling in today. It's about the cash they're burning through like there's no tomorrow. That's the hallmark of a classic cycle: when an industry hits that "strategically irreplaceable" sweet spot, capital rewards the spenders first, not the earners. The AI investment loop is so damn resilient because this "spending makes sense" vibe is holding strong—for now.Over the past year, the flow of AI capital has flipped on its head, hard.Phase one? Software frenzy—big models, agents, C

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ I’m watching the S&P 500 approach a critical juncture where elevated institutional exposure, strong earnings momentum, balanced sentiment, and striking historical analog patterns are converging to create one of the most pivotal setups of the year. This isn’t just another market checkpoint; it’s the kind of inflection point that often defines leadership, direction, and risk for months ahead. 🇺🇸 Positioning Active managers continue to lean aggressively into US equities. The latest NAAIM Exposure Index reads 80.66, a level that historically aligns with strong institutional conviction. Such elevated exposure often coincides with late-stage rally extensi

Fed FOMC minutes amid shutdown, and we are hearing report that Fed is set to drive global rate cuts as Europe shifts to pause. Market consensus of two more rate cuts before year-end remain in play, but will FOMC minutes hold this consensus or Fed is ready to go further. Here is a refined view on whether the consensus of two more Fed rate cuts by year-end is likely — and how the shutdown complicates things: What the Fed just signaled & market expectations At the September meeting, the Fed cut rates 25 bps and signaled two more cuts this year, bringing the dot plot median to a 3.50%–3.75% terminal range by end-2025. Market pricing (via rate futures) currently implies a high probability (~89%) of a 25 bps cut in October and further easing in December. In the FOMC minutes from July, severa

As we move into the second half of 2025, Hong Kong’s financial spotlight has quietly shifted toward the convergence of digital assets and traditional finance. According to The South China Morning Post, southbound capital inflows through Stock Connect surged past HKD 866.8 billion in the first 7 months of the year—already exceeding the full-year total of 2024 by more than 7 percent. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar briefly strengthened to 7.79 against the U.S. dollar, an unexpected move that forced the HKMA to step in once again to defend its currency peg.Money is flowing back, exchange-rate volatility is rising, and one message is clear: Hong Kong is entering a new era of financial-infrastructure reform. And right in the middle of this transformation, a new player is quietly emerging—the Ho

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:Government Shutdown Kicks Off, But Non-Farm Payrolls Might Still Drop? As of midnight on October 1, the US federal government ground to a halt after Congress failed to pass a funding bill for the new fiscal year. A bunch of federal agencies are either partially or fully offline—think stats offices pausing data dumps (like jobs reports and inflation numbers), regulatory reviews dragging their feet, and government contracts/aid programs hitting pause. With the Fed's FOMC meeting looming at the end of October, this mess is seriously fogging up the policy outlook. That said, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could still roll out September's jobs data since it's already in the bag.Job Signals Looking Shaky, Yet Stocks Keep Grinding Higher? The

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ While it hasn't surged in this wave of semiconductor FOMO, it perfectly embodies the old adage: "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step." Recent Microsoft research offers eye-opening insights from direct feedback of 300 CIOs. The standout data lies in software spending: 2025 IT budgets remain steady at +3.6%, with software leading the charge at +3.8%; the 2026 outlook shows overall budgets accelerating slightly to +3.8%, and software to +3.9%. Microsoft's steady, "slow-burner" growth—averaging +4.1% over the past decade—hits the sweet spot.For MSFT, the biggest prize is GenAI.AI/ML remains firmly atop CIOs' priority list, with hyperscalers emerging as preferred partners and Microsoft leading the pack. Research in

【SRT】 As of 3 Oct 2025 (Fri), SRT gained 2.73% WTD in SGD, and rose 14.41% YTD in SGD. YTD gains were led by industrial, retail and office by subsector and CICT, MPACT and MLT by individual REITs. CICT rose as it surpassed Hong Kong’s Link Reit as Asia’s largest REIT, driven by a S$600M August private placement to acquire the remaining 55% stake in CapitaSpring, amid peak rate optimism. Meanwhile, MPACT rose after CGSI increased its price target and kept its add rating on tailwinds of falling interest rate as most of the REIT’s debt is denominated in SGD. $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S$(SRT.SI)$ 2025 YTD Total Return: +14.41% 【MMF】 Despite a US government shutdown which began 1 Oct 2025, the Treasury Department can still pay coupons and auction debts w

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 27Oct25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, China and America in the coming week. Hong Kong celebrates the Chung Yeung Festival on 29Oct25 Hong Kong Public Holiday: The 29th of October will be a public holiday in Hong Kong to observe Chung Yeung Day. It is known as the Double Ninth Festival and is a day for honouring ancestors and caring for the elderly. Key Economic Announcements and Market Indicators The upcoming week will feature several key economic announcements providing insights into the current state of the economy, monetary policy, and sector-specific performance. Monetary Policy and Inflation The most significant event will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s interest rate dec

🌟🌟🌟The US markets fell today with the S&P500 dropping the first time in 8 days.  The US government shutdown and delayed economic data added the pressure.  Spot Gold surged past USD 4,000 as a safe haven refuge. Will the Fed cut interest rate in October? Investors are pricing in a 95% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed's October 28 to 29 meeting.  This is according to the CME Fed Watch tool.  That is up from just 52% probability in September.  The markets also see an 85% probability of another cut in December.  This will bring the rates to 3.5% to 3.75% by the end of 2025. The Fed cut its rate by 25 bps to 4.00% - 4.25% at its September meeting.  However policymakers were narrowly split on the rest of the year with 10 officials projecting 2 more ra

🏦 FOMC Minutes Amid Shutdown! Is the Fed Ready to Go Further or Finally Step Back? > “The Fed is walking a tightrope — one misstep, and the market either melts up or breaks down.” The past week has been anything but calm for U.S. markets. As the federal government shutdown drags into its sixth day, traders are anxiously awaiting the release of the FOMC minutes — a document that could determine the next major shift in sentiment. Last month, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its first adjustment in months, signaling a cautious response to slowing growth. But with inflation still above target and employment showing early cracks, the key question this week is: Has the Fed done enough — or too much? --- ⚖️ The Fed’s Crossroads: Inflation Isn’t Dead, Growth Isn’t Safe Chair Je

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ As Wall Street braces for the release of the FOMC minutes later this week, traders face a rare convergence of monetary and fiscal uncertainty. The federal government shutdown has now stretched into its sixth day, halting several key economic data releases and complicating the Federal Reserve’s already delicate balancing act. Last month, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, marking its first easing move since 2020. But investors remain divided over whether that cut was the start of a new cycle — or merely a one-off insurance adjustment. Complicating matters, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the current landscape as a “challenging situation,” acknowledging that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, while emp

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ September defied the bears, delivering a 13.25% YTD S&P 500 gain and 20% for Nasdaq, smashing expectations of a correction. Yet October’s historical red streak—down in 10 of the last 15 years—looms large, though last year’s mere 0.99% dip post-rally suggests resilience. With the S&P 500 at 6,650 and Nasdaq at 22,200, the bull’s momentum feels young, but Powell’s overvaluation warning and strong data add caution. Did you catch t

The old world is fading fast. The investment strategies, historical patterns, and cautious wisdom that once ruled the markets are relics of a bygone era. We’ve crossed into a new age—defined by climate urgency, artificial intelligence, and the dawn of a multi-planetary future—and the turning point of human civilization is unfolding before our eyes. As of October 1, 2025, 9:37 PM NZDT, the S&P 500 has surged 13.25% year-to-date (YTD), defying the traditional “October crash” narrative, while leading stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Alibaba (BABA) continue to power ahead. The past offers no roadmap; the future demands bold action. These aren’t just companies—they’re the vanguards of a new era, and even at lofty valuations, their potential is limitless. A Paradigm

September has indeed been a strong month across risk assets, with multiple rally sessions signaling both renewed liquidity inflows and a “fear of missing out” effect among investors. Heading into October, the question is whether this bullish momentum has legs — or whether we might see the familiar seasonal volatility reassert itself. In this article I would like to share the structured take, we will also be providing the scenario map for the broad equity market (using S&P 500 as proxy) into October, lastly, we will share how we can map the October equity market scenarios to option trade structures, using $S&P 500(.SPX)$ or $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ as a proxy. Bullish Continuation Case (Mom

Yesterday was one of those whirlwind days where everything blurred together — errands to run, tasks to finish, and time slipping away faster than I could catch it. By midday, my focus was so scattered that I completely forgot I even had a Tiger Brokers account. It wasn’t until the evening, when the pace of the day finally slowed, that the thought suddenly resurfaced like a forgotten to-do list item floating to the top of my mind: “Wait... my stocks!” I opened the Tiger Brokers app and began scrolling through my portfolio, not expecting much after such a long, busy day. To my quiet relief, the numbers were green. SOXS, TLT, and TLH were behind the gain. SOXS had made a decent move upward, while TLT and TLH were gently positive — nothing huge, but enough to tilt the balance in my favor. iSha

Although the U.S. government shutdown has had little impact on equity markets so far, October still carries a fair amount of uncertainty. Major indexes continue to hit new highs, but the VIX volatility index appears to be forming a bottoming pattern, rising in tandem with the market in recent sessions — a sign that investors are quietly hedging against potential turbulence ahead.All eyes are now on key September macroeconomic data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, PCE, and wage growth. If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Federal Reserve’s path toward further rate cuts may become contentious. Whether the Fed can deliver its planned three cuts totaling 75 basis points this year remains a central question. With only two FOMC meetings left (Oct. 29 and Dec. 10), any surprises — such as a