🚀🧠📈 $NVDA Into Year-End, Calm Vol, OPEX Distortions and the $2T AI Reckoning 📈🧠🚀
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ 📅 19Dec25 🇺🇸 | 20Dec25 🇳🇿, Context Before Conclusions I’m framing everything below through the lens of a major year-end expiry window. This is quadruple witching and OPEX territory, where equity options, index options, single-stock futures, and index futures all roll simultaneously. These events routinely distort spot price, compress realised volatility, and mute price discovery as dealer hedging dominates tape action. What looks calm on the surface often masks aggressive positioning shifts undernea
The USD 7.1 Trillion Question: Why Santa Defied The Witches at 6,800
🌟🌟🌟Friday December 19 2025 wasn't just any "Freaky Friday". It was the largest options expiration history with a staggering USD 7.1 trillion value in options set to expire. The "Quadruple Witching" hour was upon us and while everyone braced for a bloodbath, the market had other plans. The S&P500 did not just hold . It thrived closing decisively above the 6,800 mark. Here is how the bulls broke the spell: Understanding Pinning and Gamma Hedging In the complex world of options trading , 2 concepts often dictate the market's behaviour on expiration day: What is Pinning? This phenomenon describes how a stock or an index can get stuck at a specific strike price (like 6,800) as expiration approaches. Market makers like the big banks, who have so
CoreWeave Jumps 23%, Options Turn Bearish On December 19, 2025, AI compute infrastructure stock $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ extended the strong momentum from the prior session. As November CPI data continued to show cooling inflation, expectations for future rate cuts strengthened, lifting overall risk appetite and driving a broad rebound across technology and compute-related assets. At the same time, on December 18, the Trump administration announced the “Genesis Plan” aimed at accelerating U.S. domestic development of AI, computing power, and critical digital infrastructure—emerging as a key catalyst for the compute theme. Against this combination of macro and policy tailwinds, CRWV surged as much as 23% intraday, with shares briefly jum
Nvidia's AI Dominance Reloaded: Micron's Monster Beat Signals Bottom – Time to Load Up for 2026 Glory? 🔥🚀
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$$Micron Technology(MU)$ Nvidia's shaking off the dust after Micron's explosive earnings beat lit a fire under the semiconductor sector, proving the AI upcycle's far from fizzling. As of December 20, 2025, NVDA shares are clawing back with a 2.8% jump to $141.28, riding the wave from Micron's Q1 rev crush at $13.64 billion (topping $12.83 billion est) and EPS blowout at $4.78 – a testament to memory demand tripling from AI data centers. This rebound flips the script on recent dips, with Morgan Stanley doubling down on Nvidia as a top 2026 pick alongside Broadcom and Astera Labs, calling semis the brightest US equity spot amid limitless AI compute hunger. 💡 Morgan Stanley's bull call isn't hype
🌟🌟🌟Why Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike was a non event? BoJ raised its policy rate to 0.75%, its highest since 1995. While the event was historically significant, the move was a non event for 3 reasons: 1. It was fully priced in. Investors had already baked the quarter point hike into their plans with overnight swap market showing a near 100% probability of the move before it happened. 2. Governor Ueda's lack of guidance into future rate hikes actually caused the yen to weaken further, dropping 1.3% to 157.53 yen per dollar. 3. Real interest rates in Japan remain negative (at around -2.2%). This means that BoJ is still supporting growth even as it "normalises". So it turns out that BoJ 's historic interest rate hike was about as scary as a kitten dr
2025 can be best understood as a year of violent repricing rather than simple trend continuation. The sharp April sell-off in US equities acted as a reset. Positioning had become one-sided, valuations complacent, and macro uncertainty underestimated. The subsequent rebound to record highs was not driven by fresh optimism, but by resilience. Earnings held up, liquidity remained ample, and investors were repeatedly forced to re-risk into strength rather than conviction. Gold breaking past USD 4,000 was arguably the most revealing signal of the year. It reflected not inflation panic, but deep-seated distrust. A hedge against fiscal expansion, geopolitical fragmentation, and long-term currency debasement. That gold and equities rallied together underscored a market hedging prosperity with prot
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Christmas, for me, is less about escape and more about recalibration. I deliberately scale back active trading during this period. Liquidity thins, price action becomes more sentiment-driven, and the risk–reward for short-term trades deteriorates. Rather than forcing activity, I treat the final stretch of the year as a time for review rather than execution. My usual approach is a light-monitoring mode. Key levels, macro headlines, and positioning risks stay on the radar, but there is no urge to react unless something genuinely breaks framework assumptions. It is a conscious shift from doing to observing. The more valuable work happens off-market. Reviewing what worked and what did not, stress-testing convictions, reassessing
🇰🇷🎄 Christmas Break, Korea, and What Trading Taught Me This Year
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ This Christmas, I chose to travel, and interestingly, Korea ended up giving me some of the clearest trading lessons of the year. K-culture looks flashy on the surface: K-pop performances, perfectly choreographed stages, polished visuals. But once you are there, you realise the real story is discipline, repetition, and respect for process. No idol debuts overnight. Years of training happen quietly before the spotlight ever turns on. That felt painfully familiar as a trader. In markets, we celebrate the breakout days and the winning trades. But the real edge is built off-screen, journaling, reviewing losses, cutting positions early, and sitting through boredom when there is nothing to do. Korea reminded me that consisten
This expiry feels less about direction and more about structure. With such a heavy concentration of ODTEs and strikes clustered around 6,800, the pinning effect has a real chance to dominate into the close — unless a macro surprise forces dealers to re-hedge aggressively. My base case is intraday volatility with a compressed close, not a clean Santa rally yet. Liquidity looks thin, sentiment fragile, and positioning crowded. For me, this is a session to trade levels, not narratives, and size down. December has been about survival and discipline, not hero trades.
$Oracle(ORCL)$ 4-Day Wipeout or Selective Rotation? Why the "Rubber Balls" Are About to Bounce The market just hit a brick wall. In a matter of four days, we’ve seen nearly two weeks of hard-earned index gains evaporate. If you’ve been heavy on the AI high-flyers, your portfolio probably feels like it just went through a blender. But while the headlines are screaming about a tech correction, the tape is telling a much more nuanced story. This isn't a "sell everything" moment—it's a "look where the money is hiding" moment. While the mega-cap tech giants are gasping for air, several industry groups are printing new Relative Strength (RS) highs. The question isn't whether the market is going down, but rather: which stocks are refusing to stay s
Year-End Market Reset: Why December Volatility Matters More Than the Santa Rally
As we head into the final stretch of 2025, markets feel restless. Volatility has picked up, rallies fade faster, and every headline seems to question whether the Santa Rally still exists. But stepping back, this does not feel like panic. It feels like transition. After a strong year driven by rate cuts, AI momentum, and returning liquidity, markets are no longer pricing upside blindly. Instead, they are digesting gains, resetting positions, and waiting for clarity. That is why December has been choppy rather than directional. Several forces are colliding at once: Thin year-end liquidity amplifying moves Heavy options positioning influencing daily price action Global macro uncertainty lingering, especially around policy shifts This creates an environment where price behaviour matters more t
In the rapidly evolving digital landscape of 2025, cybersecurity has shifted from a "nice-to-have" IT expense to a non-discretionary "survival cost." With the global cybersecurity market projected to grow from $245 billion in 2024 to over $500 billion by 2030, investors are increasingly looking at the two "Goliaths" of the industry: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD). While both are leaders, they represent two distinct philosophies of security and investment profiles. The Growth Thesis: Why Cybersecurity Now? The investment case for cybersecurity rests on three pillars: The AI "Arms Race": Generative AI has lowered the barrier for hackers to create sophisticated phishing and malware. Conversely, companies must use AI-driven security to defend at machine speed.&nbs
AI Doesn’t Need More GPUs — It Needs Faster Wires $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ Over the past three years, whenever artificial intelligence comes up, most people immediately picture the same thing: NVIDIA's H100 GPUs forming massive black walls of compute power, followed by the Blackwell architecture's B200 chips, and then the Rubin platform. Investment bank reports compete to outdo each other on who has the most exaggerated claims about compute capacity, parameter counts, or teraflops per second. But here's the key question few people rea
📊🔥🌍 Weekly Market Recap for week ending 19Dec25 20Dec25 ET 🇺🇸 | 21Dec25 NZ 🇳🇿
$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ Bullish $Micron Technology(MU)$ Bullish $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 🚦 Market Pulse From my seat, the tape confirmed structural strength rather than late cycle excess. The S&P 500 settled at 6,834.78, up +0.89% on the session, extending 2025 gains to +16%, and when I map this year against the full S&P 500 return distribution back to 1928, it registers as a solid double digit outcome rather than an outlier melt up. That distinction matters to me for forward expectations, valuation tolerance, and risk management discipline. What stands out to me next is the NASDAQ Composite closing at 23,307.62, up +1.31%. I read
The 2025 Whiplash: From Market Carnage to Record Highs and the Singapore Triumph
🌟🌟🌟What a rollercoaster 2025 has been! It started with a bang - a gut wrenching dip in April due to Trump's Tariffs, only for US equities to perform the most spectacular rebound in history. It wasn't just a Bull market. It was a beast unleashed. The Global Carnage and the AI Paradox We watched history unfold in real time as Gold finally breached the mythical USD 4,000 mark for the first time ever. Meanwhile $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ became an unstoppable force, hitting an eye watering USD 5 trillion market cap. But the year ended with a twist of irony: by December, capital appeared to be abandoning the very AI sector that fueled the rally. It was a classic "buy the rumour, sell th
The Oracle Rebound: From Debt Despair to TikTok Triumph
🌟🌟🌟Just when the bears thought they had $Oracle(ORCL)$ cornered, the script flipped. After a brutal stretch where Oracle stumbled 10% on earnings and sat at a staggering 50% below its year todate high, the tide has finally turned. Concerns over Oracle's debt levels and Credit Default Swap (CDS) pricing which had the market spooked, were overshadowed by a massive strategic win. With news that ByteDance and TikTok have signed binding agreements with a consortium including Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX, shares have surged 6% in after hours trading. This isn't just a bounce. It is a lifeline. Significance for Oracle's Long Term Fundamentals This agreement is a significant strategic
The USD 5 Trillion Question : Has NVIDIA Found Its Floor?
🌟🌟🌟The air is thick with tension as NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ the AI darling of the decade fights to reclaim its crown. After a gut wrenching correction that saw the market momentarily turn its back on Nvidia, the question on every investor's mind this December: Is Nvidia a buy the dip miracle or a trap waiting to spring? Nvidia's Rebound Riding on Micron's Coattails The clouds began to part this week as $Micron Technology(MU)$ delivered a blowout earnings report that acted like a shot of adrenaline to the sector. Nvidia, which had been languishing below key moving averages, caught a massive wave of sympathy bid. When the "mem
The “Dividend Hunter” Screener (Finding Hidden Gems) (Masterclass Series 3/3) 🦖 EP1326
🟩 Are you stuck in the "Blue Chip Loop," buying the same banks and telcos just because they're familiar, while smart money is quietly finding 6% yields in boring, overlooked sectors? Most retail investors in Singapore crowd into DBS or Singtel, completely missing out on stable industrial REITs and business trusts that pay reliable dividends without the headlines. The problem isn't a lack of good stocks on the SGX; it's the lack of a system to find them without spending hours reading annual reports. In this finale of our Investor’s Toolkit Masterclass, I reveal my personal "one-minute workflow" for filtering the entire Singapore market—over 700 stocks—down to a gold list of five to ten high-quality winners. We move beyond simple luck and start using institutional-grade screening tools to st
DBS vs UOB: Why The Divergence is Widening | Weekly Stock Ups and Downs 21 Dec 2025 🦖 EP1328
*** PERSONAL IGGY'S NOTE: If you look at the raw data models (like the ones I shared), they are currently flashing red on UOB. They flag it as 'overvalued' relative to its history and prefer OCBC for its momentum. If you were trading purely on numbers, you'd swap UOB for OCBC today. But here is the caveat: these algorithms can be blunt instruments. For example, the model flags UOB for 'burning cash'—but banks are supposed to deploy cash (lend it) to make money! It also penalizes UOB for lower margins, failing to account for its specific growth phase. The model sees 'weakness,' but I see a 'cyclical lag' that offers deep value. So, while I am adding OCBC to my portfolio to capture its current strength (respecting the data), I am not rejecting UOB. I am holding it as a value play. The lesson