To The Moon

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$   just dropped a monster Q2: Revenue ~$1.92B (+53% YoY) Net income ~$1.27B (+55%) Free cash flow ~$860M Core engine still humming. Net revenue per install +58%. Install volume slightly down. This machine is extracting more value from the same (or fewer) installs — not just printing volume.Yet the stock cratered to 52-week lows within weeks of the print.The market is no longer arguing whether AppLovin makes money. It’s arguing whether the second growth curve — e-commerce advertising — is real business or just pixels looking busy.The core is not brokenAXON (the ad recommendation + bidding system) keeps improving monetization in mobile games. Clear closed loop: install → spend → LTV. That’s why margins and ca

Oil’s Supply, still dire. A slight easing in oil prices and claims that Strait of Hormuz flows have almost returned to “normal” should not be mistaken for market security. The immediate disruption may be easing, but the global stockpile buffer that normally absorbs supply shocks is nearly exhausted. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser noted that under 6 billion barrels of commercial inventories remain, with most not practically available. The world entered the crisis (end February 2026) with nearly 10 billion barrels of oil stocks, but almost 3 billion barrels of gross supply were lost since the Iran war began, alongside over 1 billion barrels withdrawn from inventories, the last major tool to relieve market pressure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) plans to release 100 million barrels of c

Semiconductors rallied Tuesday, yet memory stocks went the other way. SK Hynix fell 6.39%, Seagate dropped 9.18%, Western Digital lost 6.93%, SanDisk declined 2.56% and Micron slipped 1.73%. At first glance, that looks worrying. If AI infrastructure demand remains strong, why are some of the biggest beneficiaries suddenly underperforming? I think the answer is that the memory trade has entered a more difficult phase. The market no longer needs proof that memory prices are strong. It needs proof that extraordinary memory economics can last.  The Supercycle Has Become a Victim of Its Own Success Memory has enjoyed an exceptional run. AI servers require enormous quantities of high-performance memory and storage. HBM demand exploded. DRAM tightened. NAND pricing improved. That created the

The indices: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both set record closes and the 10-year came back to 5.27 per cent The three indices pushed higher again on Tuesday: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.58 per cent to 7,818.93, closing above 7,800 for the first time and at a record close, having reached 7,844.52 at its intraday peak; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 0.45 per cent to 27,599.89, also a record close; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$Average added 0.49 per cent to 51,521.28. The 10-year Treasury yield came back to 5.27 per cent from 5.31 per cent the day before. Last week's pattern, where weak data lifted equities, has

🌟🌟🌟The global financial market is standing on the edge of a dizzying cliff, staring directly down at a 5.5% interest rate.  For months, every investor has been holding their breath, wondering if the relentless drop in asset prices will finally stop or explode into a chaotic market mess. Today, Friday 2 October 2026, the market faces its ultimate test: the US Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payrolls).  Paired with fresh economic drama from Wednesday's PCE Inflation Data, the playbook for investing is about to be completely rewritten in real time. The Bond Blueprint: Hot vs Cold Jobs Data Think of the market as a giant scale and today's jobs numbers is a massive boulder about to drop.  Wall Street is expecting a cozy 90,000 to 100,000 new jobs to have been added last month with the unemp

$OCBC Bank(O39.SI)$  $DBS Group Holdings Ltd.(DBSDF)$  $UOB(U11.SI)$   My first reaction: I would not automatically treat a 5% fall in OCBC as bad news. When a fundamentally strong bank falls sharply without an obvious company-specific negative announcement, I want to ask three questions: 1. Why did it fall? 2. Where is the technical support? 3. What price gives me a good risk-to-reward entry? For OCBC, the important level right now is around S$30.50–S$30.60, because that is where the 60-day moving average and today’s intraday low are sitting. The bigger question is whether this is simply profit-taking

The indices are green, but today I'm less interested in chasing the market and more interested in where the next asymmetric trade may be forming. My five watches today are Micron (MU), Circle (CRCL), SpaceX (SPCX), Rezolve AI (RZLV) and Beyond Meat (BYND). 1. MU: My Highest-Conviction Watch Micron remains my favourite fundamental setup of the group. The latest earnings reinforced the AI memory shortage thesis, but the stock hasn't simply exploded higher afterwards. That hesitation is actually useful. The debate has shifted from whether memory demand is strong to how long extraordinary pricing can persist. My approach today is simple: I don't chase MU strength. I buy good pullbacks while the memory thesis remains intact. What I'm watching now is whether buyers continue defending weakness de