To The Moon

Right now, the hawks have the stronger evidence. If inflation remains sticky and the labour market stays resilient, it is difficult for the Fed to justify easing, which explains why short-term yields and rate expectations have repriced so aggressively. That said, markets have a habit of extrapolating current conditions too far. Citi's case is not impossible. If falling oil prices feed through to inflation, jobless claims continue rising, and growth slows meaningfully, the Fed could shift from inflation concerns to growth concerns surprisingly quickly. My base case would be "higher for longer" rather than multiple rapid hikes or imminent cuts. The economy would need clearer signs of deterioration before October rate cuts become likely. For investors, the bigger risk may not be whether the n

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

【Money Market Fund】 US$ MMF Net 7-day Yield: +3.61%* During the week, markets processed signals from the June FOMC and Chair Warsh’s debut. HSBC highlights four near-term impacts: a hawkish inflation stance may push front-end yields higher, Warsh’s focus on inflation responsibility supports curve flattening, reduced forward guidance increases front-end volatility, and while balance sheet policy is steady, further QT remains possible. Looking ahead to the week, ongoing Fedspeak and geopolitical developments remain in focus. * Data as of 2026/06/18. 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal. 【REITs】 S$ SRT YTD total return: ‑3.80% As of 19 Jun 2026 (Fri), $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S$(SRT.SI)$ declined 0.54% WTD in SGD,

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East saw renewed uncertainties over the past weekend, ultimately failing to reach a comprehensive agreement. However, considering that the market's sensitivity has significantly dulled, unless hostilities officially resume, this is not expected to disrupt the performance of most assets. Recently, we can shift our focus toward the foreign exchange market. Taking the US Dollar Index (DXY) as a reference, the price action is currently hovering near a crucial watershed level. Based on our long-term bearish view on the dollar, there is reason to suspect that new selling opportunities may emerge, and the DXY itself faces the risk of a bull trap. Earlier this year, the dollar once approached its 10-year long-term trendline, but the bulls ultimately defended thi

What was supposed to be an anticipated Mon, 22 Jun 2026 rally, has been completely derailed after: Peace talks in Switzerland collapsed on Friday without an official deal. Re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz as Israel continues its unilateral military campaign in Lebanon. With US market short-term sentiments interrupted by above events, will investors have to defer to last week’s US economic reports to justify any investment exercise ? Pertinent US reports out the week before: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 - Industrial production report. Tue, 16 Jun 2026 - Import price index. Wed, 17 Jun 2026 - US retail sales. Thu, 18 Jun 2026 - US jobless claims. US Industrial Production. YoY Report. US industrial output grew by +1.67% YoY for May 2026, missing market consensus of 1.9% but higher than April 2026’s upw

As of the market close on June 18, 2026 (latest comprehensive data available), here are the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance figures for the requested indexes and groups. Major Indexes (Price Returns, unless noted) S&P 500: +9.57% (Total Return ~+10.20%, including ~0.63% dividends). NASDAQ Composite: ~+14.09% (stronger recent momentum; Nasdaq-100, a related tech-heavy gauge, at +20.42%). Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): +7.29%. Wilshire 5000 (FT Wilshire 5000 Full Cap): +9.74%. S&P 500 Breakdown and Magnificent 7 S&P 493 (S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent 7): Has generally outperformed the Mag 7 in 2026 so far, contributing to broader market gains. Exact current YTD not pinned in all sources, but it has led relative performance amid Mag 7 weakness (e.g., earlier in the ye

A one-day rebound does not settle the debate. The bullish interpretation is that the market absorbed a hawkish surprise and immediately found buyers. The fact that semiconductors could rebound so violently suggests there is still substantial demand for AI-linked assets. Apple's warning about memory prices reinforces the view that supply remains tight, while support for Intel helped sentiment across the chip complex. The bearish interpretation is that the drivers were narrow and thematic rather than macroeconomic. If Governor Kevin Warsh remains committed to tighter policy, higher discount rates still pressure long-duration growth stocks. One strong session does not remove that headwind. What I would watch: Whether chip leaders continue outperforming for several days, not just one. Whether

the midterm election is happening at early nov so i doubt there will be a sept rate hike to reduce trump's votes.

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ — Do Not Buy $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ — Do Not Buy $Adobe(ADBE)$ — Do Not Buy $Micron Technology(MU)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $Intel(INTC)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ NQ— Strong Buy Recommendation $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $SpaceX(SPCX)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation If you're an investor, feel free to like and follow.

My Investing Muse (22Jun2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Meta’s CTO says morale is near “the worst it’s ever been” — leadership will offer increased snack budgets to lift spirits. Freight Distress Report: more carriers shut down, logistics firms cut jobs Bankruptcy filings from Texas to California were accompanied by hundreds of layoffs at Expeditors, Alan Ritchey, DHL and others - FreightWaves My muse The market is returning to a backdrop shaped by a peace deal that still lacks important details, alongside continued restrictions around access to the Straits of Hormuz. There also appear to be different interpretations of the agreement. In my view, this is consistent with the uncertainty we have seen since the start of the conflict, and I would not be surprised if tensions remain e

News and my thoughts from the past week (22Jun2026) NSA Director Gen. Joshua Rudd claims Anthropic’s “MYTHOS” broke into America’s most sensitive classified systems in just a few hours. Eric Schmidt saying the quiet part out loud: "What I don't like about [China's AI] is that it's all open source which means it's largely uncontrolled and not controlled in any way by us." He adds, "if that makes you feel any better," that only 2 or 3 countries can be independent AI powers. In other words, it's all about hegemony: the ideal scenario is a world where AI is controlled by the US - and the fewer countries that can resist that, the better. GIC nears deal to offload US$2 billion in private credit stakes - The Business Times Amazon, Walmart, Uber, Cisco, and Meta have all capped or limited employee

Market Outlook of S&P500 (22Jun2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.00, indicating the market has equal buying and selling momentum. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bulli

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026) Business Activity · S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Housing and Energy Markets · New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market. · Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil m

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026) Business Activity · S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Housing and Energy Markets · New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market. · Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil majors view market consumption. Inflation

The sharp reversal we just saw after the post-FOMC selloff highlights a massive tug-of-war in this market. On one side, you have a distinctly hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh signaling rate hikes; on the other, you have powerhouse corporate earnings and a relentless secular boom in AI and hardware. To determine whether this is true resilience or a "fake bounce" ahead of a deeper drop, we have to look closely at the data mechanics driving the price action. What Is Sustaining the Resilience? The core factor preventing a total macro meltdown is simple: unprecedented dispersion and earnings power. The macro backdrop is heavy, but single-stock fundamentals—particularly in tech—are acting as a massive structural buffer. The Semiconductor Complex: This is the undisputed anchor

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

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I would lean towards "theme-driven bounce until proven otherwise." A 2.5% rebound in QQQ and a near-20% surge in leveraged semiconductor ETFs looks impressive, but the drivers were largely stock-specific and sentiment-driven rather than a broad improvement in macro conditions. If the market's concern yesterday was tighter monetary policy and higher-for-longer rates, that concern has not disappeared overnight. What is encouraging is that buyers remain eager to step into AI and semiconductor weakness. That suggests the AI capex narrative is still intact and institutions are not rushing for the exits. What is less encouraging is the market's tendency to rotate violently from panic to euphoria within 24 hours, which is characteristic of a volatile trading environment rather than a stable uptre

I feel the U.S. dollar will strengthen as the U.S. economy continues to perform well. Inflation could remain subdued if additional oil supply from Venezuela and Iran returns to global markets. With the U.S. also becoming a major exporter of oil and natural gas, a stronger energy position may further support the dollar. In addition, record profits and massive capital spending by U.S. AI companies, coupled with a relatively low unemployment rate and the absence of quantitative easing (QE), provide further support for the U.S. economy and the dollar. AI investment is increasingly becoming a major driver of economic growth and corporate earnings. My view is that the U.S. dollar will rise while Treasury yields gradually decline. The Federal Reserve may eventually lower interest rates (my own op

🌟🌟 Artificial Intelligence has created unprecedented market value but the window for trading on pure hype is slamming shut.  The core question haunting the market is whether actual commercial adoption can grow fast enough to sustain today's sky high tech stock valuations. Building AI infrastructure is brutally capital intensive.  Companies are discovering that deploying AI models involves immense energy consumption & massive cloud spending. Nonetheless there are 3 tech stocks that can withstand this volatility: $Alphabet(GOOG)$ self funds its massive USD 175 billion Capex entirely out of its own operations, carrying neglible debt exposure. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ has an unrivalled monopoly in the

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

【Money Market Fund】 US$ MMF Net 7-day Yield: +3.61%* During the week, markets processed signals from the June FOMC and Chair Warsh’s debut. HSBC highlights four near-term impacts: a hawkish inflation stance may push front-end yields higher, Warsh’s focus on inflation responsibility supports curve flattening, reduced forward guidance increases front-end volatility, and while balance sheet policy is steady, further QT remains possible. Looking ahead to the week, ongoing Fedspeak and geopolitical developments remain in focus. * Data as of 2026/06/18. 7-day net yield is calculated based on calendar days and NAVs in 5-decimal. 【REITs】 S$ SRT YTD total return: ‑3.80% As of 19 Jun 2026 (Fri), $CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S$(SRT.SI)$ declined 0.54% WTD in SGD,

What was supposed to be an anticipated Mon, 22 Jun 2026 rally, has been completely derailed after: Peace talks in Switzerland collapsed on Friday without an official deal. Re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz as Israel continues its unilateral military campaign in Lebanon. With US market short-term sentiments interrupted by above events, will investors have to defer to last week’s US economic reports to justify any investment exercise ? Pertinent US reports out the week before: Mon, 15 Jun 2026 - Industrial production report. Tue, 16 Jun 2026 - Import price index. Wed, 17 Jun 2026 - US retail sales. Thu, 18 Jun 2026 - US jobless claims. US Industrial Production. YoY Report. US industrial output grew by +1.67% YoY for May 2026, missing market consensus of 1.9% but higher than April 2026’s upw

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East saw renewed uncertainties over the past weekend, ultimately failing to reach a comprehensive agreement. However, considering that the market's sensitivity has significantly dulled, unless hostilities officially resume, this is not expected to disrupt the performance of most assets. Recently, we can shift our focus toward the foreign exchange market. Taking the US Dollar Index (DXY) as a reference, the price action is currently hovering near a crucial watershed level. Based on our long-term bearish view on the dollar, there is reason to suspect that new selling opportunities may emerge, and the DXY itself faces the risk of a bull trap. Earlier this year, the dollar once approached its 10-year long-term trendline, but the bulls ultimately defended thi

Right now, the hawks have the stronger evidence. If inflation remains sticky and the labour market stays resilient, it is difficult for the Fed to justify easing, which explains why short-term yields and rate expectations have repriced so aggressively. That said, markets have a habit of extrapolating current conditions too far. Citi's case is not impossible. If falling oil prices feed through to inflation, jobless claims continue rising, and growth slows meaningfully, the Fed could shift from inflation concerns to growth concerns surprisingly quickly. My base case would be "higher for longer" rather than multiple rapid hikes or imminent cuts. The economy would need clearer signs of deterioration before October rate cuts become likely. For investors, the bigger risk may not be whether the n

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026) Business Activity · S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Housing and Energy Markets · New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market. · Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil majors view market consumption. Inflation

As of the market close on June 18, 2026 (latest comprehensive data available), here are the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance figures for the requested indexes and groups. Major Indexes (Price Returns, unless noted) S&P 500: +9.57% (Total Return ~+10.20%, including ~0.63% dividends). NASDAQ Composite: ~+14.09% (stronger recent momentum; Nasdaq-100, a related tech-heavy gauge, at +20.42%). Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): +7.29%. Wilshire 5000 (FT Wilshire 5000 Full Cap): +9.74%. S&P 500 Breakdown and Magnificent 7 S&P 493 (S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent 7): Has generally outperformed the Mag 7 in 2026 so far, contributing to broader market gains. Exact current YTD not pinned in all sources, but it has led relative performance amid Mag 7 weakness (e.g., earlier in the ye

The sharp reversal we just saw after the post-FOMC selloff highlights a massive tug-of-war in this market. On one side, you have a distinctly hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh signaling rate hikes; on the other, you have powerhouse corporate earnings and a relentless secular boom in AI and hardware. To determine whether this is true resilience or a "fake bounce" ahead of a deeper drop, we have to look closely at the data mechanics driving the price action. What Is Sustaining the Resilience? The core factor preventing a total macro meltdown is simple: unprecedented dispersion and earnings power. The macro backdrop is heavy, but single-stock fundamentals—particularly in tech—are acting as a massive structural buffer. The Semiconductor Complex: This is the undisputed anchor

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

My Investing Muse (22Jun2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Meta’s CTO says morale is near “the worst it’s ever been” — leadership will offer increased snack budgets to lift spirits. Freight Distress Report: more carriers shut down, logistics firms cut jobs Bankruptcy filings from Texas to California were accompanied by hundreds of layoffs at Expeditors, Alan Ritchey, DHL and others - FreightWaves My muse The market is returning to a backdrop shaped by a peace deal that still lacks important details, alongside continued restrictions around access to the Straits of Hormuz. There also appear to be different interpretations of the agreement. In my view, this is consistent with the uncertainty we have seen since the start of the conflict, and I would not be surprised if tensions remain e

News and my thoughts from the past week (22Jun2026) NSA Director Gen. Joshua Rudd claims Anthropic’s “MYTHOS” broke into America’s most sensitive classified systems in just a few hours. Eric Schmidt saying the quiet part out loud: "What I don't like about [China's AI] is that it's all open source which means it's largely uncontrolled and not controlled in any way by us." He adds, "if that makes you feel any better," that only 2 or 3 countries can be independent AI powers. In other words, it's all about hegemony: the ideal scenario is a world where AI is controlled by the US - and the fewer countries that can resist that, the better. GIC nears deal to offload US$2 billion in private credit stakes - The Business Times Amazon, Walmart, Uber, Cisco, and Meta have all capped or limited employee

A one-day rebound does not settle the debate. The bullish interpretation is that the market absorbed a hawkish surprise and immediately found buyers. The fact that semiconductors could rebound so violently suggests there is still substantial demand for AI-linked assets. Apple's warning about memory prices reinforces the view that supply remains tight, while support for Intel helped sentiment across the chip complex. The bearish interpretation is that the drivers were narrow and thematic rather than macroeconomic. If Governor Kevin Warsh remains committed to tighter policy, higher discount rates still pressure long-duration growth stocks. One strong session does not remove that headwind. What I would watch: Whether chip leaders continue outperforming for several days, not just one. Whether

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 22Jun2026) Business Activity · S&P Global Services PMI: The June Services PMI is forecast at 51.0, suggesting modest growth in the services sector. · S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: The June Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. Housing and Energy Markets · New Home Sales: May new home sales are expected to come in at 637,000 units, up from the previous 622,000 units. This will be an important reference point for assessing momentum in the real estate market. · Crude Oil Inventories: Crude oil inventory data remains a key near-term indicator. A drawdown in inventories may signal stronger demand expectations and provide insight into how oil m

Market Outlook of S&P500 (22Jun2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.00, indicating the market has equal buying and selling momentum. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are showing a bulli

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ — Do Not Buy $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ — Do Not Buy $Adobe(ADBE)$ — Do Not Buy $Micron Technology(MU)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $Intel(INTC)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $IONQ Inc.(IONQ)$ NQ— Strong Buy Recommendation $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation $SpaceX(SPCX)$ — Strong Buy Recommendation If you're an investor, feel free to like and follow.

the midterm election is happening at early nov so i doubt there will be a sept rate hike to reduce trump's votes.

The stock market can look confusing when you only read the headline. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ hits a record high. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ falls. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ slips. AI stocks cool down. Oil drops. The Fed is still in focus. At first glance, this looks contradictory. If the market is strong, why is tech weak? If investors are bullish, why are $NVIDIA(NVDA)$, $Broadcom(AVGO)$, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, and other AI names under pressure? If the Dow is breaking records, why does it not feel like every portfolio is celebrating? The

The major indices sold off yesterday: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.57%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ dropped 1.15%. Today started differently. Stocks opened higher, with the S&P up about 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.6%, before giving back some gains during the session. Just weeks ago Goldman Sachs was talking about S&P 8000. Now Citadel and PGIM are warning about inflation, rates, and valuation risk. Japan has already begun tightening. The global conversation is shifting from rate cuts back to rate hikes. Just days ago, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points to 1%. A few weeks earlier Goldman Sachs was calling for S&P 8000 and raising

I would lean towards "theme-driven bounce until proven otherwise." A 2.5% rebound in QQQ and a near-20% surge in leveraged semiconductor ETFs looks impressive, but the drivers were largely stock-specific and sentiment-driven rather than a broad improvement in macro conditions. If the market's concern yesterday was tighter monetary policy and higher-for-longer rates, that concern has not disappeared overnight. What is encouraging is that buyers remain eager to step into AI and semiconductor weakness. That suggests the AI capex narrative is still intact and institutions are not rushing for the exits. What is less encouraging is the market's tendency to rotate violently from panic to euphoria within 24 hours, which is characteristic of a volatile trading environment rather than a stable uptre

With rising expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement will be signed, the market appears to have temporarily escaped the shadow of inflation, and U.S. equities have finally welcomed a long-overdue rebound. Many investors may feel this is the time to buy the dip. However, I want to caution: do not yet let your guard down. The market's volatile phase has not passed. The current gains in U.S. stocks remain unstable, and the first leg of the crude oil bearish rally may already be complete. We need to patiently wait for the November 19 ceasefire agreement signing results and specific details to materialize before the market can potentially launch a new bearish phase. More importantly, for both the fragile rebound in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasuries, adopting a selling-options strateg