To The Moon

Hello. In the last piece Nvidia was out raising up to US$500 billion for AI infrastructure and the market had started asking where the money would come from. Last night we got half an answer: the money is there, but the people putting it up and the people spending it went in opposite directions. The providers all rose: KKR up 6.88 per cent, Apollo 6.26 per cent, Brookfield 4.77 per cent, Blackstone 3.89 per cent and BlackRock 1.54 per cent. The spenders fell for a second day: Alphabet down 3.61 per cent, its fourth decline in five sessions; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ down 2.09 per cent, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 1.5 per cent, $Apple(AAP

Markets Pause Near Record Highs Ahead of CPI — Is 3.4% the Pass Mark? U.S. stocks are pausing near record highs ahead of today’s July CPI report. The market expects headline inflation to ease to 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.5%. But with expectations for a September rate hike now near 50-50, the details—not just the headline number—could determine whether the rally continues. Previous Data: Numbers and Impact * June CPI: Headline -0.4% MoM / +3.5% YoY; core 0.0% / +2.6% Impact: Lower gasoline and shelter inflation reduced rate-hike fears and supported bonds and technology stocks. * June PCE: Headline -0.1% MoM / +3.7% YoY; core +0.1% / +3.3% Impact: Monthly inflation cooled, but elevated annual PCE kept the Fed cautious. * June JOLTS: Job openings fell to 7.36 million Impact:

The U.S. stock market's surge following a surprisingly weak labor report highlights the counterintuitive mechanism of modern macro trading. When the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 reached a record high of 7,757.64 on August 7, 2026, it demonstrated that in an environment where interest rates and Federal Reserve policy dominate equity valuations, a cooling labor market can act as a catalyst for stock prices. 1. The Mechanics: Why "Bad News" Became "Good News" for Wall Street The term "bad news is good news" describes a market regime where weak macroeconomic data is interpreted positively by investors because it alters the trajectory of monetary policy. The Chain Reaction Behind the August 7 Rally July Labor Contraction: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls unexp

There is no evidence yet that hyperscaler infrastructure spending is slowing materially. The better investment opportunity continues to move toward the physical AI infrastructure chain: REITs — today’s CPI matters considerably to this sector   Soft CPI → lower Treasury yields → positive REIT catalyst. Hot CPI + Brent approaching $90 → higher yields → negative REIT catalyst.

TQQQ

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Payrolls Fell 23,000, Yet Stocks Hit a Record — Can Wednesday’s CPI Keep the Rally Going? The U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, but the S&P 500 still closed at a record high. Why? Investors interpreted weaker employment as reducing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Wednesday’s July CPI will now determine whether that “bad news is good news” rally can continue. Recent Economic Data: Cooling Inflation, Weakening Jobs July 14 — June CPI * Headline CPI: -0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY * Core CPI: 0.0% MoM, +2.6% YoY * Gasoline: -9.7% MoM * Shelter: +0.1% MoM Inflation cooled sharply, although much of the improvement came from lower energy prices. July 30 — June PCE * Headline PCE: -0.1% MoM, +3.7% YoY * Core PCE: +0.1% MoM, +3.3% YoY * Real consumer spending: +0.4% The Fe

Hello. Friday's payrolls report was genuinely bad: July payrolls fell by 23,000, the May and June gains were revised down by a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2 per cent year on year. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.62 per cent to a record close. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 1.30 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.28 per cent. Data that bad turned out to be good news, because the market immediately cut the odds of a September rate rise to about 44 per cent. Loosen the rate outlook and valuations get room to breathe: $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ros

Probably **not symmetrically**. Friday's jobs report was bullish because it reduced the perceived need for another Fed hike. July CPI can reinforce that rally if soft, but a hot print would attack the very valuation argument that propelled AI and semiconductors higher. The asymmetry matters. Payrolls fell 23,000 and the prior two months were revised down by 103,000, driving September hike pricing from roughly 67% to 44%. Yet inflation remains the Fed's constraint. RBC notes that services inflation in particular remains the sticking point for an inflation-sensitive Fed.  So I see Wednesday's CPI reaction roughly this way: - **Below expectations:** clearly bullish. It validates Friday's "weak jobs + less Fed tightening" trade. Long-duration growth, AI and semis should benefit most. - **

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Will a surprised weak job report spark a pressure to raise interest rates before end of the year? Or a shock to the market sentiment and a potential correction?  So far a market that is very much news driven by the US/Iran conflict, it has not digest this set of news yet, or it would never affect it at all. But lets see. I remain cautious as the market are breaking higher highs.  @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

Hello. The largest first tranche of any IPO lock-up in US market history came free last night: 911.5 million $SpaceX(SPCX)$ insider shares became eligible to sell, taking the freely tradable count from about 639 million to roughly 1.55 billion in one step. The shares rose 6.14 per cent. The day the selling actually happened wasn't last night. It was the day before. On Wednesday the stock fell 13.61 per cent on about 200 million shares, the heaviest turnover since 18 June; last night volume hit 251 million and set another high, yet the price went up. Heavier volume than Wednesday, and the price went the other way — the people who wanted to sell had mostly finished on Wednesday. Someone went back through three comparable cases: in ea

SpaceX Rallies 6% After Its Lockup Expiration: Is the Next Opportunity in Space Stocks? SpaceX has finally given the public space sector something it has long lacked: a genuine valuation anchor. On August 6, approximately 911.5 million SpaceX shares became eligible for trading. Investors feared that employees and early shareholders would rush to sell, yet after plunging nearly 14% the previous day, $SpaceX(SPCX)$ rebounded 6.1% to close at $114.92. This does not mean the selling pressure is over. By December 8, tradable shares could rise to roughly 40% of SpaceX’s total shares outstanding, leaving the stock exposed to further supply and volatility. Reuters But the more interesting signal came from the rest of the sector.

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Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr

$CNMC Goldmine(5TP.SI)$  

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$   Let's see 725 then 727 next! Let's go

Well here we go again - bombs away in the Hormuz Straight and then back to the negotiations with people who don't understand English again and ceasefire and then misbehaviour and all erupts again  Cwikey with all the dessimation of Uranium to only find out that the uranium got days earlier and that the dessimation was just a photo of the smoke and mirrors who do we believe? Blockades, invasions, destruction and dessimation and now alls well again and BOOM 💥  Apologies on the narrative but the jump today on the trading board could be considered normal by the deranged, but come on haven't you heard of the old age adage 'Build em Up to Break em Down' ? Hey maybe I got the pattern wrong and I'm the deranged one, but somehow I think not as if you can't see repeat after repeat where fo

Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring "the return of the king" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current

I'm voting A. I believe both $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and Arista can deliver results strong enough to reinforce the AI investment cycle. Cloud providers are still spending aggressively on AI infrastructure, and I expect that demand to extend beyond GPUs into CPUs, networking and the broader data center ecosystem. What I'm watching most isn't just whether they beat estimates, but whether they raise guidance. If AMD shows accelerating AI accelerator adoption alongside continued EPYC strength, and Arista confirms robust demand for high-speed networking, it would signal that AI capital spending remains healthy across multiple layers of the infrastructure stack. I'm staying constructive on AI. Valuations are elevated, but companies that continue t

Wall Street has quickly moved from correction fears back to record-high excitement. On Monday, the Dow gained 1.32% to close at a record 53,178. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600, while the Nasdaq climbed 2.13%. Falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields gave growth stocks another boost, while strong earnings brought capital back into technology and AI names. That leaves investors facing an uncomfortable question: Are earnings pulling the market higher, or is fear of missing out creating a high-valuation melt-up? Tonight may provide an important answer. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Arista Networks(ANET)$ both report after the closing bell. AMD represents the computing layer of the AI buildout. Ar

Hello. In the last piece Nvidia was out raising up to US$500 billion for AI infrastructure and the market had started asking where the money would come from. Last night we got half an answer: the money is there, but the people putting it up and the people spending it went in opposite directions. The providers all rose: KKR up 6.88 per cent, Apollo 6.26 per cent, Brookfield 4.77 per cent, Blackstone 3.89 per cent and BlackRock 1.54 per cent. The spenders fell for a second day: Alphabet down 3.61 per cent, its fourth decline in five sessions; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ down 2.09 per cent, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ 1.5 per cent, $Apple(AAP

Markets Pause Near Record Highs Ahead of CPI — Is 3.4% the Pass Mark? U.S. stocks are pausing near record highs ahead of today’s July CPI report. The market expects headline inflation to ease to 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.5%. But with expectations for a September rate hike now near 50-50, the details—not just the headline number—could determine whether the rally continues. Previous Data: Numbers and Impact * June CPI: Headline -0.4% MoM / +3.5% YoY; core 0.0% / +2.6% Impact: Lower gasoline and shelter inflation reduced rate-hike fears and supported bonds and technology stocks. * June PCE: Headline -0.1% MoM / +3.7% YoY; core +0.1% / +3.3% Impact: Monthly inflation cooled, but elevated annual PCE kept the Fed cautious. * June JOLTS: Job openings fell to 7.36 million Impact:

The U.S. stock market's surge following a surprisingly weak labor report highlights the counterintuitive mechanism of modern macro trading. When the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 reached a record high of 7,757.64 on August 7, 2026, it demonstrated that in an environment where interest rates and Federal Reserve policy dominate equity valuations, a cooling labor market can act as a catalyst for stock prices. 1. The Mechanics: Why "Bad News" Became "Good News" for Wall Street The term "bad news is good news" describes a market regime where weak macroeconomic data is interpreted positively by investors because it alters the trajectory of monetary policy. The Chain Reaction Behind the August 7 Rally July Labor Contraction: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls unexp

Payrolls Fell 23,000, Yet Stocks Hit a Record — Can Wednesday’s CPI Keep the Rally Going? The U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, but the S&P 500 still closed at a record high. Why? Investors interpreted weaker employment as reducing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Wednesday’s July CPI will now determine whether that “bad news is good news” rally can continue. Recent Economic Data: Cooling Inflation, Weakening Jobs July 14 — June CPI * Headline CPI: -0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY * Core CPI: 0.0% MoM, +2.6% YoY * Gasoline: -9.7% MoM * Shelter: +0.1% MoM Inflation cooled sharply, although much of the improvement came from lower energy prices. July 30 — June PCE * Headline PCE: -0.1% MoM, +3.7% YoY * Core PCE: +0.1% MoM, +3.3% YoY * Real consumer spending: +0.4% The Fe

Hello. Friday's payrolls report was genuinely bad: July payrolls fell by 23,000, the May and June gains were revised down by a combined 103,000, and hourly earnings rose just 3.2 per cent year on year. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.62 per cent to a record close. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 1.30 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.28 per cent. Data that bad turned out to be good news, because the market immediately cut the odds of a September rate rise to about 44 per cent. Loosen the rate outlook and valuations get room to breathe: $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ros

Probably **not symmetrically**. Friday's jobs report was bullish because it reduced the perceived need for another Fed hike. July CPI can reinforce that rally if soft, but a hot print would attack the very valuation argument that propelled AI and semiconductors higher. The asymmetry matters. Payrolls fell 23,000 and the prior two months were revised down by 103,000, driving September hike pricing from roughly 67% to 44%. Yet inflation remains the Fed's constraint. RBC notes that services inflation in particular remains the sticking point for an inflation-sensitive Fed.  So I see Wednesday's CPI reaction roughly this way: - **Below expectations:** clearly bullish. It validates Friday's "weak jobs + less Fed tightening" trade. Long-duration growth, AI and semis should benefit most. - **

There is no evidence yet that hyperscaler infrastructure spending is slowing materially. The better investment opportunity continues to move toward the physical AI infrastructure chain: REITs — today’s CPI matters considerably to this sector   Soft CPI → lower Treasury yields → positive REIT catalyst. Hot CPI + Brent approaching $90 → higher yields → negative REIT catalyst.

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Will a surprised weak job report spark a pressure to raise interest rates before end of the year? Or a shock to the market sentiment and a potential correction?  So far a market that is very much news driven by the US/Iran conflict, it has not digest this set of news yet, or it would never affect it at all. But lets see. I remain cautious as the market are breaking higher highs.  @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

TQQQ

SpaceX Rallies 6% After Its Lockup Expiration: Is the Next Opportunity in Space Stocks? SpaceX has finally given the public space sector something it has long lacked: a genuine valuation anchor. On August 6, approximately 911.5 million SpaceX shares became eligible for trading. Investors feared that employees and early shareholders would rush to sell, yet after plunging nearly 14% the previous day, $SpaceX(SPCX)$ rebounded 6.1% to close at $114.92. This does not mean the selling pressure is over. By December 8, tradable shares could rise to roughly 40% of SpaceX’s total shares outstanding, leaving the stock exposed to further supply and volatility. Reuters But the more interesting signal came from the rest of the sector.

Hello. The largest first tranche of any IPO lock-up in US market history came free last night: 911.5 million $SpaceX(SPCX)$ insider shares became eligible to sell, taking the freely tradable count from about 639 million to roughly 1.55 billion in one step. The shares rose 6.14 per cent. The day the selling actually happened wasn't last night. It was the day before. On Wednesday the stock fell 13.61 per cent on about 200 million shares, the heaviest turnover since 18 June; last night volume hit 251 million and set another high, yet the price went up. Heavier volume than Wednesday, and the price went the other way — the people who wanted to sell had mostly finished on Wednesday. Someone went back through three comparable cases: in ea

Sign me up keen for the reward cuz

Find out more here:Tiger BOSS Debit Card Epic Rewards Refer More Earn More!

Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr

Just this past Monday, the S&P 500 index successfully broke through its 20-day moving average, while the Nasdaq index solidly reclaimed its 20-week moving average. According to the technical rules I outlined previously, when these two critical indicators are breached simultaneously, we should pivot our stance to the upside in alignment with the trend. Sure enough, within just one day, both major indices surged another few percentage points, and the S&P 500 even came close to returning to its previous high, right where the initial drop began. Looking at this price action, I believe many are already declaring "the return of the king" for US equities, assuming the market has completely finished its shakeout and re-entered a primary uptrend. However, I must issue a warning: the current

First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli

Wall Street has quickly moved from correction fears back to record-high excitement. On Monday, the Dow gained 1.32% to close at a record 53,178. The S&P 500 rose 1.48% to 7,600, while the Nasdaq climbed 2.13%. Falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields gave growth stocks another boost, while strong earnings brought capital back into technology and AI names. That leaves investors facing an uncomfortable question: Are earnings pulling the market higher, or is fear of missing out creating a high-valuation melt-up? Tonight may provide an important answer. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Arista Networks(ANET)$ both report after the closing bell. AMD represents the computing layer of the AI buildout. Ar

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's resolute stance on price stability ("This Fed will not waver") and the removal of forward guidance sent a clear message to Wall Street: interest rates will stay higher for longer until inflation hits the 2% target. Because long-term bond yields spike under hawkish Fed messaging, growth-oriented assets like tech equities face immediate headwinds. 1. Will This Scenario Continue to Market-Haunt Tech? In the short term, yes. Tech stocks—especially high-multiple growth equities tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ —are uniquely sensitive to rising Treasury yields: Higher Discount Rates: Tech valuations rely heavily on discounted future cash flows. Higher yields increase the discount rate, naturally com

After several brutal sessions, global technology stocks finally staged a powerful rebound. The Nasdaq rose 2.8%, while Microsoft’s post-earnings surge helped lift AI chips, cloud stocks and data-center names across the board. The move became even more dramatic in Asia. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped sharply, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix surging as investors rushed back into semiconductor names. Taiwan’s market also rebounded strongly, led by TSMC. At first glance, this looks like a classic V-shaped reversal. But the more important question is: Has the correction really ended, or is the market only beginning a longer U-shaped repair process? Why did the rebound happen so quickly? The first reason is earnings. Microsoft showed that AI spending can already translate into cloud revenue, p

Three very different technology stories hit the market in the same session. China reportedly began producing domestically developed immersion DUV lithography machines, pressuring ASML and the broader semiconductor-equipment sector. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell about 5% as investors questioned how deeply the chip leader may become financially involved with the companies buying its hardware. Meanwhile, $Apple(AAPL)$ reached a record closing high and reclaimed the title of the world’s most valuable listed company. Together, these moves suggest that the market is changing the way it values technology companies. The new questions are becoming clearer: Who controls a critical bottleneck? Who is taking on the financial r