Hello everyone. Under normal circumstances, with a war still going on, gold should be benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, so why has the price collapsed instead? What does this selloff tell us about trading gold and equity indices, and are there similar periods in history that we can use as reference points? Today, Mr. Gan will go through all of this in the livestream. Below are some notes I put together. The Gulf states have fallen into a strange trap: oil prices are rising, but their income is falling because they cannot sell enough crude. Why? Because of the Strait blockade.  $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$

Wait for further dip to buy more.

The gold market is currently navigating a period of high intensity, where technical "overbought" signals are clashing with powerful geopolitical and structural drivers. The State of the Bull Run Despite the recent steep pullbacks, the consensus among major institutions (J.P. Morgan, UBS, Goldman Sachs) is that the secular bull market remains intact. The current sell-off is largely viewed as a "healthy consolidation" following the parabolic move earlier this year. Record Highs: Most analysts expect gold to notch fresh record highs later in 2026. Targets range from $5,000/oz (J.P. Morgan/HSBC) to as high as $6,300/oz (UBS/Bank of America) by year-end. The Iran Factor: The conflict in Iran is the primary driver of current volatility. While "safe-haven" demand initially spiked prices to nearly

Today, gold dropped all the way from $4,500 per ounce to $4,102, with a maximum decline of as much as 8.8%. Market sentiment has fallen into extreme pessimism. Considering the previous three trading days, when gold declined by 3.75%, 3.53%, and 3.26% respectively, today’s sharp drop is even more alarming. After consecutive declines, gold has completely erased its 30% gain for the year. At this moment of panic, I chose to buy the dip. I bought some $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ at $78. Next, let’s talk about the logic behind my decision. First, it is necessary to understand the reasons behind this sharp decline in gold. According to traditional thinking, gold is a safe-haven asset, and regional conflicts should benefit gold prices. On the first trading

This looks like a headline-driven relief rebound, not yet a clean all-clear. Gold did rebound sharply, with reports tying the move to hopes for diplomacy, lower immediate energy-risk pricing, and softer oil after talk of a possible ceasefire framework. Reuters reported markets were cheered by Trump’s comments about progress with Iran, while Axios reported that U.S. and regional mediators are still waiting for Tehran’s response on possible high-level talks as early as Thursday. Axios also said Iranian officials remain suspicious of the U.S. push, so the diplomatic path is still fragile.  My view: do not treat this bounce as proof the correction is over. When gold rallies mainly because war fears ease, the move can reverse quickly if talks stall, oil spikes again, or Hormuz headlines wo

What caused the gold crash? The chain reaction currently driving gold is: War → Oil up → Inflation risk → Rate cuts delayed → Bond yields & USD up → Gold down Recent reports confirm gold fell sharply because rising oil prices increased inflation fears and reduced expectations for interest-rate cuts, while a stronger USD and higher bond yields made gold less attractive.  There is also another important factor: Liquidity selling. During market stress, investors sometimes sell gold to cover losses elsewhere, so gold can fall even during geopolitical crises.  So this crash is macro-driven, not gold fundamentals collapsing. --- Is this a regime change or just a correction? Important perspective: Gold peaked ~ $5,600 Recently dropped to around $4,100–4,300 That is about a 25% corre

Remember at the beginning of the year, numerous reports projected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates four times. However, following the surge in oil prices, the market has swung from one extreme to another. Today, hardly anyone dares to anticipate any rate cuts this year. In fact, working backward from the latest U.S. Treasury yield data, the market has even begun to price in potential rate hikes starting in October. This dramatic shift—going from extreme euphoria to sheer panic in just two to three weeks—clearly demonstrates that market trends are currently driven by future sentiment and expectations rather than genuine, medium-to-long-term fundamental changes. Investors must deeply understand this reality. Predictably, if the strait blockade eventually concludes and rate c

1. Your macro explanation is actually correct What you said about oil → inflation → fewer rate cuts → gold down is exactly what is happening. Recent news confirms this chain: Middle East conflict → oil above $100 Inflation expectations rise Fed rate cuts pushed back or cancelled Bond yields + USD rise Gold falls despite war Gold has dropped ~20% from the January peak mainly because markets no longer expect rate cuts.  Important concept: > Gold rises when real rates fall, not when war happens. War only helps gold if it causes rate cuts or money printing. Right now war is causing inflation instead, which is bearish for gold short term. --- 2. Why gold crashed even during war This confused many investors because gold is supposed to be a safe haven. But this time: Oil spike → inflation

All depends on your strategy. If you plan to rotate will be a good option to sell. If on a longer journey keep as it will always go up

...  .... Nga nga nga nga nga nga

After hitting a record high of $5,589 this January, gold prices plummeted to approximately $4,100 in less than two months—a 26.6% peak-to-trough retracement. This marks the most catastrophic monthly decline in 43 years. However, prices managed to claw back to $4,400 during pre-market trading.

Gold's Historic Plunge: Waiting for clearer signal As an investor facing gold's worst weekly performance in 43 years, I'm choosing to wait rather than buy the dip, despite GLD's 20.7% decline from its 52-week high. The SPDR Gold ETF has plummeted from $509.70 to $404.04, posting nine consecutive down days with trading volume more than double the 65-day average12. While this suggests extreme oversold conditions, the fundamental headwinds are too significant to ignore. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance creates the primary obstacle, with market bets on rate hikes surging and expectations reduced to just one more cut this year instead of two34. This diminishes gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Paradoxically, Middle East tensions that typically boost gold are instead hurting it by drivi

The script of "Geopolitical Shock - Resurgent Inflation - Forced Liquidation" has played out four times in the last 46 years. The 2026 iteration is distinguished by its unprecedented speed.

Is the current crash in gold price is just an overreaction? Central banks in oil importing nations currently view managing the oil price shock as higher priority than accumulating gold reserves. While gold is a hard asset, in an extreme liquidity crisis, it is also the most liquid asset to monetize (convert to cash) to pay for energy. As gold was in a state of extreme "overbought" euphoria during February, its price correction is imminent. As long as the DXY stays above 100 and the Fed remains hawkish, the valuation correction for gold is far from over. Gold price will continue to struggle as official reserves accumulation is not the central banks’ priority right now. Thanks @Tiger_comments

Gold hit record highs earlier. Many investors are simply locking in profits.