Chinese leaders visited the United States last week. Even by the time the visit ended and the official readout was released, there were few concrete measures or signed agreements. Apart from the easing of trade tariffs that the market had widely anticipated, there was little of particular note. The lack of a major domestic publicity push around the visit’s outcomes is also telling. Clearly, Trump hopes to generate a series of positive developments ahead of the midterm elections to bolster his electoral prospects. In addition to the Chinese visit, there was news last week of U.S.–Iran talks, but that, too, amounted to more talk than action, with no tangible outcome yet. Any further impact on oil prices and inflation may therefore have to wait until after the midterms. For financial markets

Market Take: The Fed’s Recent Rate Hike The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00% — the first rate hike since 2023. The move signals that inflation remains a bigger concern than slowing growth. What it means for markets: * Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. * Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar are likely to stay elevated, creating pressure on growth and technology stocks in the short term. * The Fed emphasized that future decisions will remain data-dependent, with another hike later this year still on the table if inflation stays stubbornly high. My view: This is more of a reset in expectations than a surprise. Markets had already begun pricing in a hawkish Fed due to resilien

A large 85,000 Bitcoin put order hit the market, while Gold’s defensive floor moved higher. Is the market about to turn? The option changes on September 22 show that open interest in Gold calls continued to expand. In Silver, traders maintained upside exposure at higher strikes while accelerating purchases of downside protection. In Bitcoin, however, new positions on both sides remained too small to be meaningful. This suggests that expectations for further upside in precious metals have not disappeared, but protection against pullbacks and volatility is becoming more expensive. Gold: Calls Still Dominate as Defensive Positioning Moves Higher Gold call open interest increased by a net 8,354 contracts, exceeding the 6,116-contract increase on the put side. Total call open interest stood at

The market has been choppy over the past two days, and short-term moves can easily disrupt one’s rhythm. I would rather lay out the key levels clearly and then assess the market’s reaction once prices reach them: for gold, the first question is whether a rebound will encounter resistance; for crude oil, the focus is on whether the low-level recovery can continue. U.S. Dollar Index: Firm Bias, but Guard Against a Pullback After a Spike The U.S. Dollar Index formed a large bullish candle with a relatively substantial real body yesterday, indicating that short-term bullish momentum remains in place. Today, watch how the index trades within the 100.6–101.6 range. The overall bias remains constructive, but a pullback after a move higher should also be kept in mind.