This week, the dominant cross-asset pricing driver shifted from geopolitical risk premia to a U.S. rates shock. As Middle East supply disruption risks eased at the margin, crude oil retreated sharply from its mid-month high. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 30 basis points to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Oil’s decline did little to ease pressure on long-end yields, suggesting that the latest rate surge was driven mainly by a widening term premium and mounting Treasury supply pressure. With elevated rates and tighter liquidity expectations weighing on markets, equities, industrial metals, and precious metals all came under broad pressure. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Near Term Direction for US Equities Remains Unclear, Pending CPI and TSMC Earnings The baseline scenario for US equities this week remains consolidation near current highs. A downside break is the next most likely outcome, followed by a move to new highs and a higher trading range. All three scenarios remain possible. Easing diplomatic tensions ahead of the election should support market stability and may delay a larger correction, although a modest near term pullback remains a risk. The

This week, the key pricing driver across major asset classes shifted from geopolitical risk premiums to a US rates shock. Oil prices retreated sharply from their mid-month peak as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 30 basis points over the week to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Falling oil prices failed to halt the rise in long-term yields, suggesting that term premiums and Treasury supply pressures had become the main drivers. As a result, equities, industrial metals and precious metals came under broad pressure.  $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金2612(MGC2612)$

Introduction 1. Further rate hikes remain firmly in play. CME FedWatch puts the chance of another October hike at 57.6%. The popular “dovish hike” narrative misreads the policy signal. If October payrolls remain strong, three hikes this year become a credible outcome. Volatility would rise accordingly. 2. The dollar may be entering a faster leg higher. September’s rate hike marked a turning point in the dollar cycle. Because rate differentials now drive the trend, commodity longs face a difficult backdrop. 3. US stocks remain strong, but beware the "last hurrah". Avoid excessive bullishness before the midterm elections. The Dow and Russell peaked in August, so October is the next window for a possible top in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Limit exposure to tactical trades

This week’s macro focus was the Fed’s September meeting. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, after markets had priced in more than 92% odds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.0266%, widening the 10-year/3-month spread to 89 basis points. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $109 a barrel and drove WTI up about 9.6% for the week. Higher yields and geopolitical risk weighed on U.S. equities, with the Dow down 1.56% and the S&P 500 off 0.78%. Commodities diverged: crude gained nearly 10%, while copper and aluminum each fell about 1%. Gold lost 1.4% and silver fell more than 5%, extending precious metals’ losing streak to three weeks. As of the close on September 16, 2026, the week

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>

The much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision came and went last week, with the 25-basis-point move ultimately causing little market disruption. Following the intraday and weekly tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the short-term outlook has become broadly clear: risk assets are likely to maintain their current choppy upward trend over the next one to two months. Whether it is gold, where our order narrowly missed being filled by just a few dollars, or U.S. equity indices, which remain near their highs, pullbacks should continue to offer opportunities to buy in the near term. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2026(MGC2612)$

Last night, I hosted a live session on Tiger’s futures platform titled Global Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy. The session covered global macro conditions, U.S. equities, gold, and Bitcoin, with a focus on the market’s key tensions, potential risks, and corresponding trading ideas. For those who were unable to attend the live session, the replay is available here >>> U.S. Stocks: Will Semis Drag Markets Lower Again? Bitcoin: Escape Hatch or Bomb? Below, I have organized the key information and trading-related views from the session to help readers who did not have time to attend quickly understand my current market perspective. Before that, let me briefly introduce my background. I am currently a contracte

As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

After holding the positions for more than two months, our long EUR and WTI crude oil trades both generated positive returns last week. With a Federal Reserve rate hike drawing near, new trade setups may emerge at any time. Many investors still have questions about several key issues. This week, we will use the current market backdrop to review the main considerations and provide a practical framework. Managing Futures Contract Rollovers One of the most common questions concerns futures contract rollovers. Because we frequently run swing trades and some positions are held for relatively long periods, changes in the front-month or most-active contract are sometimes unavoidable. Since physical delivery is generally not a practical option, the choices are usually limited to the following: Sett

Last week’s note highlighted the need for caution around the nonfarm payrolls report. The data had become more difficult to forecast than usual because payroll figures have been revised frequently in recent years, increasing the likelihood of surprises and larger market swings. The result was indeed a blowout: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that nonfarm employment surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. This exceptionally strong report once again disrupted the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The market had previously scaled back expectations of a September rate hike, but the release put rate-hike expectations back in the driver’s seat. The probability of a Fed rate increase in September has now returned to roughly a 60/40 split.

Recently, the broader market and most asset classes have remained locked in a relatively measured, range-bound tug-of-war. Inflation and rate-hike discussions have driven short-term volatility, but they have not triggered any meaningful change in the overall trend. Meanwhile, in a less closely watched corner of the market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has gradually climbed back toward the highs of the previous tightening cycle. If bond prices lose further control from here, both the Federal Reserve and the market itself could face significant challenges. In theory, changes in U.S. interest rates drive fluctuations in Treasury prices and, in turn, movements in Treasury yields. In other words, policy rates should serve as the anchor. This year, however, long-dated Treasury yields have cle