Big Bank Earnings Recap: AI Divergence, MS is the Winner?

As a key industry bellwether, JPMorgan Chase signaled pressure in its latest earnings, confirming investment banking revenue came in below guidance. Shares fell more than 4% Tuesday, dragging the broader financial sector lower. The results suggest that in a high-rate environment, capital markets activity is recovering more slowly than expected, while rising operating costs are squeezing margins. Does JPMorgan’s earnings miss point to a broader slowdown in capital markets activity? In a higher-for-longer rate environment, can banks defend margins against rising costs?

I own a lot of bank and investment bank stocks plus Amex, visa and sofi. All have have an annualized return of over 50% and a third over 100%. Well by all, I mean all but one. Visa has sucked, oh wait if I lump PayPal in there to, it’s very suckie. My annualized return on visa is -1% give or take. PayPal is like -20%. But pretty insignificant compared to overall gains. But as I looks through my investment notes, it clear. $Citigroup(C)$ was a no brainer. And old fashioned value stock when I brought it. David Dodd would be proud. It was trading at around half of its break up value when I brought it. You never find stocks like that these days. But find it I did. I brought ALOt of different bank stocks during the “banking crisis” around two years ago.
avatarceuejd
01-17 13:09
nice
avatarSpiders
01-17 00:02

A Quiet Interest in Numbers: Following Flagstar’s Journey

I’ve been thinking a lot about Flagstar Financial (FLG) recently, mostly because their stock is releasing earnings on January 30, 2026. I’m not planning to buy—at least, not yet—but there’s a part of me that can’t help checking. There’s something quietly compelling about watching a company’s story unfold through numbers, seeing whether strategy, effort, and past decisions finally come together. Flagstar Financial, Inc. (FLG) Flagstar’s recent years have been…well, full of changes. Back in April 2021, New York Community Bancorp announced it was acquiring Flagstar in an all-stock merger. It wasn’t a fast process—the deal completed only in December 2022. But then, just a few months later, in March 2023, Flagstar absorbed nearly all of Signature Bank’s deposits after Signature collapsed. I sti
A Quiet Interest in Numbers: Following Flagstar’s Journey
avatarLanceljx
01-16 19:16
1) Does JPMorgan’s miss signal a broader capital markets slowdown? It can, but it is more “uneven recovery” than a full downturn. Investment banking is highly cyclical: If JPM’s IB revenue came in below guidance, it often reflects slower deal-making (M&A) and more cautious underwriting (IPOs, bonds) across the street, not just a firm-specific issue. High rates delay decisions: Higher discount rates make valuations harder to agree on, so CEOs and PE funds tend to wait longer, pushing deal timelines out. Trading can mask weakness: Even when IB is soft, markets revenue (FICC/equities trading) can hold up. So the signal is: deal activity is not rebounding as fast as hoped, not that the entire capital markets engine has stalled. Bottom line: JPM’s miss likely supports the view that capital
JPMorgan's Earnings and Capital Markets Activity JPMorgan Chase's Q4 2025 earnings showed a mixed picture. While its profit exceeded estimates due to a trading boom in volatile markets, with equities revenue surging 40% and fixed income climbing 7%, its investment banking fees fell 5% and missed Wall Street estimates by 8%. This led to an initial decline in JPM's shares and contributed to the broader financial sector moving lower. Despite the dip in JPMorgan's investment banking fees, the overall outlook for capital markets activity appears more nuanced. Investment banking revenues for the industry are generally expected to be up, particularly in equity capital markets. The U.S. IPO market reached its highest level in 2025 since 2021. KBW anticipates continued momentum and outperformance i
avatarkoolgal
01-16 14:58
🌟🌟Certainty or Transformation?  The banks are split into 2 narratives.  Transformation: Citi & Wells Fargo announcing layoffs while increasing their AI investments, signal a familiar pattern in banking: streamline cost base, modernise infrastructure & hope the transformation is successful.  These moves can translate into long term profitability but the payoff depends on execution & whether legacy systems can be merged well. High potential, high complexity. Certainty: Certainty names like Goldman Sachs & Bank of America operate like wellrun machines.  Predictable earnings &diversified revenue streams.They are steady, reliable & less dramatic. Which camp am I in? Neither. I am in the disciplined camp.  I don't chase narratives. I don't pick f
avatarMkoh
01-16 11:31
Short take: Probably not a great trade for 2026 — at least not yet.The proposed 10% cap on credit card rates would seriously hurt the biggest earners in the space (think Capital One, Amex, Discover, even some of the big banks’ card divisions). That’s a massive hit to their highest-margin business, and the market already priced in a pretty ugly reaction when Trump floated it.If the cap actually gets passed and sticks for the full year, I’d expect more pain and lower multiples for those names. On the flip side, if it gets watered down, delayed, or quietly killed in Congress/bureaucracy (which is very possible), then the stocks could bounce hard from these depressed levels.Right now it feels more like a high-risk “fade the fear” play than a clean bullish setup. I’d wait for more clarity befor
avatarECLC
01-16 10:11
Surprised by some earnings reported of US banks and uncertainities still linger.

Financials Rotation Use Income Buffers, Protective Puts On Tech

Though tech stocks make a recovery on Thursday (15 Jan) after TSMC stellar earnings and guidance outlook, but we are still seeing tech and banks facing sector rotation in earnings week. Financials managed to make a recovery last night as well, but could this rotation continue in the next few weeks as more earnings are coming? In this article, we would like to look at the comprehensive market- and strategy-focused overview of your questions around the current tech vs financial rotation, geopolitical export restrictions, and tactical portfolio positioning: Market context (Thursday, 15 January 2026) • Stocks broadly recovered after recent losses, fueled by strong $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ earnings and guidance, which lifted semiconduct
Financials Rotation Use Income Buffers, Protective Puts On Tech
$Genprex, Inc.(GNPX)$   The Genprex Inc. stock price gained 19.58% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 14th Jan 2026), rising from $2.40 to $2.87. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 36.67% from a day low at $2.10 to a day high of $2.87. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 63.07% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 1 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $5.71 million. The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Due to th
Despite some good results, we are at a point in the cycle where all the banks are historically expensive so i am out of banks for now until the valuations come back down
avatarkoolgal
01-16

Big Bank.Earnings Recap: AI Divergence, Margin Squeeze & Trump's 10% Credit Card Cap. Is Financials Still A Buy?

🌟🌟🌟When JPMorgan $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$  the bellwether of the financial sector, reported earnings that fall short on investment banking revenues, the whole sector feels it.  On Tuesday, JPMorgan's shares slid more than 4%, pulling the broader financial sector down with it. Everyone is now asking the same question: Is this a blip or the beginning of a broader slowdown in capital markets activity? Just as Wall Street was processing that, President Trump threw another curve ball into the sector: A proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. This unexpected move sent credit card lenders tumbling as investors braced for the potential hit to profitability. JPMorgan's Miss: A Canary in the Capital Markets Coal
Big Bank.Earnings Recap: AI Divergence, Margin Squeeze & Trump's 10% Credit Card Cap. Is Financials Still A Buy?
avatarAN88
01-16
Citigroup still a buy
$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $Bank of America(BAC)$ there is a lot to like about the banks performance at this time in the economic cycle. With high growth in the economy in the United States, there is a strong positive investor sentiment for banking stocks with strong momentum. This results in a high likelihood of price growth for each of the banks. Within this list of banks. The banks with greater commercial exposure are likely to outperform $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ benefiting from deal making in the economy. In terms of lower prospects. The real estate exposed banks $Bank of Ame
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Will this be A short terms 
avatarTLim
01-16
Not a fan of US banks. I prefer the 3 Singapore banks. [Smile]
avatarMichane
01-16
u might be surprised I don't trade banks nowadays [LOL] Rather I have holdings like $Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)$ when it was still $1+ it is currently the winner 🏆 of my SG stocks!

Super Earnings Week: US Big Banks Report Cards Highlight

During the January 2026 super earnings week, America’s major banks have all reported results. While each bank has a different business focus, one industry-wide consensus has clearly emerged: short-term expense increases in the name of future technology (AI).The market’s response, however, has been brutally pragmatic. Tolerance for rising costs is fading, and the ROI (return on investment) stress test has officially begun.AI transformation vs. operating expense growth has become the core “battleground” of this earnings season.1. $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$: The bold “long-term tech bet”CEO Jamie Dimon has taken a firm stance on higher spending — essentially telling investors, “Trust me.” He argues that investing now in AI, data centers, and cybersecurity
Super Earnings Week: US Big Banks Report Cards Highlight
Bank is the Backbone of the financial markets. As long is a creditable bank. Still can buy’