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DoTrading

Market analysis and unbiased commentary, but trader, not analyst!

    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·05-15 04:29

      Markets: Mixed Action, AI Still Leads

      Markets: Mixed Action, AI Still Leads $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : +0.1% $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : +0.7% (six-day winning streak) Dow Jones: -0.2% (second day down) Financial markets Drivers: AI optimism continues to fuel gains in tech, especially: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ , $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Sentiment boosted by Saudi Arabia's AI investments. Broader market momentum paused as investors await key inflation and retail data. Economic Data to Watch today: Producer Price Index (PPI) Retail Sales (April) Fed Chair Powell speaks – potential market mover Housing M
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      Markets: Mixed Action, AI Still Leads
    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·05-14 04:48

      Fair Valuations, Small Cap Potential, and AI-Driven Optimism

      Markets: S&P 500 Fairly Valued – Now What? Based on historical valuation bands (14x–20x forward earnings) and modest earnings growth expectations, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is now fairly valued. To be bullish from here, investors must believe: The U.S. economy is recession-resistant. Financial markets now influence (if not dictate) policy. Generative AI will supercharge labor productivity, reversing decades of sluggish growth. Up: AI (Nvidia, Palantir, $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ ), Small Caps, Housing-related equities Down: UnitedHealth (-18% on CEO shuffle and outlook withdrawal), dragging the Dow Data: Small Caps Ready to Outperform? The Morning Briefing and Community Plus reports argue US smal
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      Fair Valuations, Small Cap Potential, and AI-Driven Optimism
    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·05-13

      Volatility Settles, Debt Worries Linger, Tariff Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite

      Volatility & Market Signals The VIX Index outperformed its Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 counterparts in capturing market fear during April’s panic, giving a more accurate buy signal. At 18.4, the VIX has returned to bull-market territory, reinforcing a more stable investment environment for now. Markets Debt Stress is Climbing Severely delinquent U.S. credit card debt is back near 20-year highs, highlighting household financial strain despite a healthy labor market. Rolling 20-year S&P 500 returns have never been negative, even through wars, inflation, and recessions. Market timing is unpredictable, but valuation and long-term discipline matter more than short-term noise. Disruption & Tech Leadership The Nasdaq 100 is up 13.8% since April 10, rebounding from technical extremes.
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      Volatility Settles, Debt Worries Linger, Tariff Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite
    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·05-10

      Tariff Turbulence, and Market Stalemate

      Friday Market Wrap: Markets ended flat as investors paused ahead of high-stakes U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s trip is viewed as a potential inflection point, though one likely heavy on optics, light on substance. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Markets Reality Check: Even if tariffs are halved from 170% to 80%, the resulting regime would still be deeply restrictive. Markets rallied early Friday but faded as traders weighed the real-world impact of modest tariff rollbacks. Tariffs Policy Mood: Mixed Signals From the Top Trump’s social media post Friday ("80% tariff on China seems right!") was both a softening from earlier hardline rhetoric and a
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      Tariff Turbulence, and Market Stalemate
    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·05-07

      “Trade Shadows, Tech Echoes, and a Biotech Shock”

      Macro Landscape: A Valuation Balancing Act $S&P 500(.SPX)$ remains near 20x forward earnings, reflecting investor belief that downside risks (growth, policy, tariffs) are roughly balanced by anticipated Fed or fiscal responses. Institutional investors are thinking in game-theoretic terms, not just about macro data, but about how their peers will react to it. This explains continued support for US equities, despite rising concerns around policy volatility and earnings headwinds. Data Focus: Precious Metals, Earnings, and Sentiment Gold/Silver ratio hits 102x. A level historically only seen during war or global crisis (1991, 2020). Implies geopolitical anxiety is still high. Silver may have upside if tensions ease, as it’s more economically sen
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      “Trade Shadows, Tech Echoes, and a Biotech Shock”
    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·05-06

      “Hello Tariffs My Old Friend” – Rally Interrupted as Trade Policy Returns to Center Stage

      Markets Pull Back Modestly After 9-Day Rally $S&P 500(.SPX)$ lost 0.6%, snapping a 9-day winning streak after Trump floated 100% tariffs on foreign-made films over the weekend. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ 0.7%, Dow down 0.2%, as investors absorbed the re-emergence of policy -driven uncertainty. The retreat followed the strongest rebound from oversold conditions (+3σ) since 2020, suggesting the rally’s pause is more about headline risk than fundamental deterioration. Even modest tariff threats can reignite volatility, particularly with tech and multinationals already priced for perfection. Stocks Oil Weakness, Recession Signal Oil prices have recently broken lower, but historical comparisons since 1987 show no
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      “Hello Tariffs My Old Friend” – Rally Interrupted as Trade Policy Returns to Center Stage
    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·05-03

      “Rolling Along”: Jobs, Trade Hopes, and a Relentless Rally

      Markets Keep Climbing: Longest S&P 500 Streak in Two Decades The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 1.5% Friday, marking its ninth straight day in the green. The longest win streak since 2004. Over that stretch, the index is up 10.2%, fully recovering losses from April’s volatility. The rally was broad-based, with 456 of 500 stocks in positive territory and every sector higher on the day. Jobs Data Delivers – Rate Cut Odds Fall, But Risk Appetite Rises Job Data April nonfarm payrolls came in at +177,000, topping expectations of +135,000. Unemployment rate held at 4.2%, reinforcing views of a still-resilient labor market. This strength reduced expectations for immediate Fed cuts, though President Trump renewed pressure for easing, claiming “NO INFLATIO
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      “Rolling Along”: Jobs, Trade Hopes, and a Relentless Rally
    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·05-02

      “Too Expensive to Worry?” – Markets Weigh Lofty Valuations Against Rising Macro Risks

      Markets: Rich Valuations, Rising VIX – A Paradox in PerceptionThis week’s Story Time Thursday explored the disconnect between high S&P 500 valuations and a still-elevated VIX Index.Investor confidence reflects a belief that recession risk is overstated, and that recent volatility was an overreaction to short-term policy shocks.If no major exogenous shock materializes, Q2 could finish strong — supported by potential Fed easing and progress on trade deals.Investor Sentiment Snapshot: Markets are behaving like “bad news needs to be really bad” to derail the rally.Economic Data: Mixed Signals, But No Red LightsInitial jobless claims rose 8% week-over-week (241k vs. 223k), but remain well below critical recessionary levels.joblessGasoline demand rose 5.6% YoY in the past week, with prices d
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      “Too Expensive to Worry?” – Markets Weigh Lofty Valuations Against Rising Macro Risks
    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·04-30

      Resilient Labor, Sticky Inflation, and Policy Volatility: Markets Find Calm in the Eye of the Storm

      Labor Market: Still Strong, But More FragileJoltsThe JOLTS report shows the job openings-to-unemployed ratio has fallen to 1.0x, suggesting less labor market slack.However, the hires-to-layoffs ratio rose to 3.5x, and the quits-to-total separations (“Take this job and shove it” indicator) surged to 64.9%, reflecting worker confidence.A “low hiring, low firing” dynamic is in place — resilient but vulnerable to shocks.The labor market’s strength allows the Fed to delay rate cuts, focusing instead on containing inflation risks.Market Data: Rangebound Treasuries, Corrective Equity Moves10Y Treasury yields are sitting mid-range for the past year, while 2Y yields hover just above their 12-month lows — indicating a cooling in front-end rate anxiety.The pullback in US large caps, while painful, ap
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      Resilient Labor, Sticky Inflation, and Policy Volatility: Markets Find Calm in the Eye of the Storm
    • DoTradingDoTrading
      ·04-29

      Tariffs, Tech, and Turning Points: Markets Brace for a Critical Week

      Global Equities: Strong YTD Abroad, But Mind the Long-Term DragNon-US equities (ACWX) are up +9.0% YTD, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ remains down -6.0%.However, over the past 15 years, the performance gap is stark: ACWX +39% vs. S&P +368%.Diversification benefit is limited: EAFE/EM correlations to the S&P run 0.75–0.83, reducing portfolio differentiation.The brief correlation dip in Feb/Mar (0.38–0.47) was an anomaly, quickly reversed by a return to volatility.Defensives: Not All Created EqualYTD sector winners: Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care — all outperforming the S&P 500.Based on 100-day trailing relative returns:Staples: Stretched — risk/reward skewed.Utilities: Toss-up — valuation sensitive.Health Care: Best positio
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      Tariffs, Tech, and Turning Points: Markets Brace for a Critical Week