To The Moon

The Fed may have more work to do. Based on the usual relationship between inflation expectations and the labor market, the fed funds rate would be closer to 5% right now. That’s more than 100 bps above the current 3.75% level. 👀 The bigger issue is what’s happening underneath the surface. 🔥 Inflation expectations have settled into a higher range. 💼 The labor market is heating back up and remains relatively tight. Put those two pieces together and the current policy rate starts looking less restrictive than it appears. The Fed’s recent hesitation may have bought some time, but the data is pushing the other way. Recent inflation data has already increased market expectations for a hike, while stronger employment data has added more pressure. 📊 The chart tells the story clearly. If inflation

The charts are starting to tell a slightly different story. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is still near the highs, but the ride is getting less smooth. And some of the warning signs are showing up outside equities. Here are my biggest takeaways this week: 1️⃣ The S&P 500 is starting to wobble The trend hasn’t broken, but momentum is becoming less convincing. After such a strong run, even a modest pullback can expose how crowded positioning has become. 2️⃣ September weakness is showing up on schedule Seasonality is working against the bulls. September has historically been one of the weakest months for U.S. equities, so the timing of this slowdown isn’t exactly surprising. But seasonality alone isn't a short thesis. 3️⃣ Credit markets are starting to whi

Here’s the topics & takeaways from my latest report —it provides some high-level insights into how I am currently seeing Macro & Markets: 1. USD: continue to watch for short/medium-term upside risk in the US dollar as technicals, sentiment, positioning turn up, policy pivots, and geopolitical risks loom. 2. Gold: gold technicals have flipped to bullish (from previous bearish), but a number of downside risk flags remain (expensive valuations, crowded positioning, consensus bullish sentiment). 3. Treasuries: compelling contrarian bullish setup in bonds (cheap valuations, bearish sentiment, very low allocations/positioning, high risk perceptions), but still awaiting the macro/technical confirmation. 4. Risk Tables: overall there are plenty of strong and credible upside risks for growt

Every so often you come across a chart like this where there is a big long-term technical tension playing out. Bears will highlight the Lower major Highs (drawing the red line), bulls will highlight the Higher major Lows (drawing the green line). Both of them are right, and that’s the point. The technical tension = simultaneous up & down trends vying for dominance. I’ve seen this type of thing play out many times before across different assets and markets, and the resultant move tends to be violent, substantial, and sets the tone for many years to follow. And I see this setup here as no different. But then you also consider the macro influence of the US dollar, and you realize that this is not just a major issue for asset allocators and traders, but something that could have far reachi

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: 1. Sentiment is still majority consensus bullish. 2. Stock correlations have dropped to record lows. 3. Volatility (VIX) looks low vs seasonals and single-stock metrics. 4. Semis are still stuck in the mud (peaked, and looking weak). 5. Software is looking stronger (software vs hardware trade reversing?). Overall, the market mood remains bullish and there are some bullish rotation trades underway. But the question is when does this consensus bullishness become complacency? There are a few flags of a potential volatility flare-up on t

Hi everyone, Here are this week’s key macro and market themes. Inflation risks are rising, software stocks are staging a comeback, and value stocks may be quietly setting up for their next move. 1. Inflation risks remain elevated Global inflation still faces upside pressure from firmer commodity prices, geopolitical risks, tight capacity and relatively limited policy response. 2. Software stocks remain attractive Software stocks continue to look promising, supported by improving technicals, a major valuation reset and a still-solid earnings outlook despite AI-related concerns. 3. Stocks still have the edge over bonds Equities look increasingly expensive relative to bonds, while positioning is heavily tilted toward stocks. However, macro conditions, policy and technical signals continue to

Stocks beating Bonds should be no surprise for those paying attention. Stocks are in a raging bull market. Bonds are in brutal a bear market. But you might be surprised by the extent of it (see chart below). The rolling 10-year annualized total return spread (i.e. including interest for bonds, dividends for stocks) of stocks vs bonds just cracked 15% —the highest since 1960 (and eclipsing the 1929 high). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Looking at the two series separately (below) we can see bonds making long-cycle lows, and stocks making long-cycle highs in real (CPI-adjusted) total returns. I think it’s important to emphasize the word cycle, because there does appear to be some rhyth

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 23 August 2026 This week: global earnings pulse, tech sector sentiment signals, positioning, valuations, contrarian corner, volatility technicals, gold vs bonds... Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Global corporate earnings estimates are surging. Tech is seeing big insider buying (but also heavy shorting). Energy, Gold, Bitcoin seen major ETF outflows (+are all turning up again). Indian stocks have been punished as an AI-loser within emerging markets. The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ is bouncing along the bottom of the range, seasonality says it goes up. Overall, the global equities bull market looks alive and well, especially when you consider the surge in earnings expectations underpinning it. US te

This week’s charts continue to show a decidedly bullish market. 📈 Breadth is improving. The equal-weighted $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is starting to outperform the cap-weighted index, suggesting the rally is broadening beyond the mega-cap names. That’s generally a healthy sign for the market. 💰 Earnings are getting stronger. Earnings revisions are surging, with a solid macro backdrop providing additional support. At the same time, higher prices are boosting investor confidence, sentiment and equity allocations. ⚠️ But the rally isn’t risk-free. Seasonality is becoming less favorable, the Magnificent 7（ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$

The chart below shows the highest country PE10 ratio across time [with revolving membership] (e.g. standouts: Japan in the 1980’s, Finland in 2000, China 2007, Colombia 2010, India 2024, and more recently Taiwan & Korea + USA). The countries represented in the red line changed often. The key point is throughout this period there has very often been a country trading on a PE10 ratio in excess of 40x, and on occasion much higher. Overall I would call this chart an exercise in imagination expansion…