To The Moon

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:Sentiment is getting increasingly consensus bullish. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ & Credit Spreads are at complacent/confident levels.Transports, shipping stocks, EM, and metals are breaking out.Value is cheaper than usual vs history and vs growth stocks.Growth stocks are expensive vs history and vs value stocks.Overall, the mood remains distinctly bullish and increasingly so —and perhaps justifiably so as more evidence emerges in favor of a global growth reacceleration (and better performance from traditional cyclicals and risk-on assets). But with growth stocks already richly priced, and value still cheap, the next phase of the bull market might look a little unfamiliar to some…

1. Clues of catch-up: this chart shows how far the US has diverged from global equity valuations, but also the nascent catch-up trade clearly underway.2. Peak performance: this one shows US stock market outperformance peaking vs DM and EM. All good trends come to an end, and all good cycles do what cycles do.3. Stocks vs Bonds over the Long-run: the rolling 10-year total return premium for stocks over and above that of bonds looks stretched vs long-term average, and it looks late in the cycle (and it does look cyclical).4. The big reset in Commercial Real Estate: in real inflation-adjusted terms, the CRE downturn has been substantial (-30%) and drawn-out (almost 4 years since peak to initial trough). Some might say that’s “enough” (…downturn done?).5. Tech capex crowd-out: successive waves

Learnings and conclusions from this session:Technicals: EM is at a bullish inflection point.Valuation: EM equity valuations are still cheap.Positioning: investor allocations to EM are still historically low.Macro: EM earnings are breaking out +strong monetary tailwinds.Sentiment: some signs of complacency, increasingly bullish sentiment.Overall, there’s a growing body of evidence to suggest that we are going through a major bullish inflection point for emerging market equities. The below set of charts looks at the key technical developments, macro-fundamentals, behavioral aspects, and weighs what could go right/wrong for EM equities from here…1. Emerging Inflection Point: an inflection point is underway in emerging market equities. Skeptics will say that it’s just another false dawn.

No that’s not a typo, we are literally seeing a new high in new highs.(47 countries just chalked up new highs)The chart below tracks the weekly count of the 70 countries we track that have closed at their highest point over the trailing 52-week window.The latest reading is the highest on record, and is comfortably higher than any reading we’ve seen in the post-2008 era.This is highly significant because the last time we got close to this number (46) was back during the early-2000’s global equity bull market where commodities were booming, emerging markets were making transformative progress, and global stocks were outperforming their US counterparts.So I would say this latest reading bodes particularly well for global vs US rotation.Indeed, probably the biggest development of 2025 was the

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 11 January 2026This week: breakouts, good starts, fun with fund flows, animal spirits, shorts, long-term trends, generational changes, market cap movements, and energy sector in focus...Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is getting off to a good start in 2026.Statistically, that bodes well for the rest of the year.Rotation out of cash and into stocks is ramping up.Animal spirits are stirring (seeing rotation into cyclicals).Energy stocks are unloved, undervalued, and underestimated.Overall, there are a number of very interesting dynamics playing out in macro and markets as we gear-up into 2026. Trend and momentum are positive overall, traditional cyclicals are picking

Now it’s time to stop looking backwards, and time to focus forward with a list of my top 10 charts to watch in 2026 (and beyond).These are the charts that I feel best capture the key macro/asset allocation issues relevant to investors right now (or that are likely to come onto the radar soon...) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$

$Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ $Silver - main 2603(SImain)$ $Copper - main 2603(HGmain)$ Industrial Metals Breaking Out Happy New Year — and Happy New High in industrial metals!While this year has already gotten off to a bang on a number of fronts, in my view this may well be one of the most important price developments in markets so far.Given the influence of economic growth on industrial metal demand, arguably this is both a bullish market development by itself and a macro signal of a stronger global economy heading into 2026.Base Metals vs Monetary MetalsBase metals are starting to play catch-up vs monetary metals.As previously mused: “The economic log

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:The S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained +16.4% in 2025 (+17.9% including dividends).(yet it lagged behind global stocks, which saw 30%+ returns).Investor sentiment is booming (yet economic confidence is glooming).Tech sector earnings are going vertical, non-tech is going sideways.Tech/mega cap valuations extreme expensive, non-tech/SMID cap cheap.Overall, it turned out to be a good year for US stocks and a great year for global stocks. As such, sentiment is riding high as most everyone is patting themselves on the back following the gains of 2025. Keeping and building on those gains in 2026 is going to take a balance of optimism and trend following, as well as realism around some of the risks bui

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ 1. Euphoria HeightsThe peak in this indicator at record highs helped forewarn of the April correction, but perhaps just as interesting is how it’s moved down again from a lower peak more recently. So an interesting one in retrospect, but also in reminding us not to get too complacent as risks build-up in the system.“sentiment has reached reco

Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:Global monetary policy settings have moved from headwind to substantial tailwinds as central banks step up precautionary easing into a window of contained inflation and macro downside risks.The big macro edge risks are recession (+deflation) on one edge vs reacceleration (+inflation resurgence) on the other edge.The US faces heightened risk of recession given confidence shocks of last year and deterioration in some labor market indicators, albeit with some offsetting factors e.g. fiscal stimulus, AI capex, rising asset prices.Meanwhile the rest of the world is looking better (Japan going strong, Europe and China turning up out of slowdown + stimulating).Among the asset classes most at risk of downside given (stretched) valuations and the stage of t