To The Moon

Here's the topics & takeaways from the latest Weekly Macro Themes report: 1. Policy Pulse: another global policy pivot is underway (from previous rate cuts to now increasing rate hikes), this will incrementally tilt risks to the downside for risk assets as the pivot progresses. 2. Treasuries: lean bullish on treasuries given compelling contrarian setup (cheap valuations, record low investor allocations, consensus bearish sentiment), but macro headwinds for bonds continue to linger. 3. REITs: somewhat constructive on REITs as they approach a potential breakout from consensus bearish sentiment and very light investor allocations, but ideally need to see lower bond yields to assist. 4. Bitcoin: remain low-conviction bullish as Bitcoin hangs onto support, with sentiment and seasonality sti

This week’s chart pretty much speaks for itself (+has just made a new all-time high). To clarify, what we are looking at here is the estimated annualized compound growth rate expected by sell-side analysts over a three to five-year horizon aggregated for the S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . i.e. consensus earnings growth expectations. Or as I like to call it: Wall Street analyst sentiment. And like all good sentiment indicators there are elements of truth and elements of emotion all mixed up in it. In boom times euphoria takes hold and analysts raise their estimates as stock prices punch higher, new paradigm narratives take hold, and ultimately expectations end up overestimating even the best fundamentals. In doom times pessimism reigns, and analy

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Similar to what we saw with investor allocations to cash probing the lows, investors in aggregate are running record low allocations to treasuries. You can see why in the chart below, with stocks having had a dream run while bonds have had a disastrous run. But you can also see something else in this chart. Both series look cyclical —one is in the middle of an upcycle, the other in the middle of a downcycle, and the next steps seem logical. The key takeaway is that investors

Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Mag-7 has been underperforming vs the “S&P493”. Valuations are high because profitability is high (profitability is cyclical). Investor cash allocations are very low (which is a warning sign for stocks). Margin debt acceleration has reached warning levels. Stockmarket seasonality turns negative from July-Oct. Overall, we are witnessing continued bull-market-broadening and bullish rotation as the S&P500 ex-Mag-7 makes new highs and the equal vs cap weight relative performance line ticks up. But there are a few warning signs to keep in mind and the bear case would be that Mag-7 underperformance turns into something sinister… $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&a

Everyone knows valuations are Expensive right now. But here's something less obvious. This chart shows how the S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has traded around major valuation extreme peaks and troughs over the past 100 years. Peaks deceive through a smooth steady ride higher, and have a habit of making sharp turns. Bottoms see prices fall slowly at first then all of a sudden. 50% of S&P500 corporate capex is done by Tech companies. No other sector comes close. Is this sustainable? "What's the Best that could happen?"

From a valuation perspective this market is divided into the Bigs (top 100) and the Big-Nots (everyone else). If you’re big you attract all the flows, have a much lower cost of capital (aka very high valuations), you suck up a lot of small companies through M&A, and to be fair if you got big in the first place you probably have pretty decent earnings and growth. If you’re small you’re off the radar, under-covered, under-valued, under-performing and probably underestimated. And even if you’re large —but not the largest, you still trade at a discount to the largest companies. As alluded, this is partly selection effects (successful companies get big), but also reinforced by the relentless rise of passive/index investing. But where things are sitting now is what you would call extreme. An

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 14 June 2026 This week: space for a sell-off, buying the dip, bullish broadening and rotation, the big and the small, SpaceX IPO, space sector stocks, the big sector skews... Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The sell-off looks to have run its course. Leveraged long ETF traders bought the dip. The equal-weighted S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ already made new highs. Small caps are also gaining in absolute and relative terms. The SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX)$ IPO is a key milestone for the Space Sector. Overall, the short-sharp-sell-off looks to have largely run its course, and dip-buyers were there for it. Adding to the optimistic case, we’re seeing signs of bull ma

This week’s chart pretty much speaks for itself (+has just made a new all-time high). To clarify, what we are looking at here is the estimated annualized compound growth rate expected by sell-side analysts over a three to five-year horizon aggregated for the S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . i.e. consensus earnings growth expectations. Or as I like to call it: Wall Street analyst sentiment. And like all good sentiment indicators there are elements of truth and elements of emotion all mixed up in it. In boom times euphoria takes hold and analysts raise their estimates as stock prices punch higher, new paradigm narratives take hold, and ultimately expectations end up overestimating even the best fundamentals. In doom times pessimism reigns, and analy

Today’s chart is one for tomorrow’s history books. It shows US households running the highest allocation to equities on record (and [as a result] the stockmarket trading at record high valuations). This is the type of shift you see only once in a generation, and it means a fundamental change in market structure with significant implications for the economy, politics, and the forward looking risk vs return outlook. But to be fair, with the S&P500 gaining more than 10x off the March 2009 lows — it’s an entirely understandable development! And even though it got this way for very logical reasons (strong earnings growth, waves of tech disruption, low interest rates, passive flows), it’s important to acknowledge that this is not normal and we live in highly unusual times. Investor confidenc

This week: monthly chart, the age of speculation, risk flags, opportunity signs, emerging markets adjusted for AI stocks, AI earnings euphoria... Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm! Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 gained +5.15% in May (up +10.73% YTD). Investor expectations, allocations, valuations are near record highs. Buyback tailwinds have faded, and semis look heavily overbought. Median stock short interest has surged to decade+ highs. Small caps & Software show there’s overlooked opportunities out there. Overall, there are more and more signs of market extremes as a generational run in stockmarket speculations sets in. And while the risks/vulnerabilities are arguably rising, the trend is still your friend for now… 1. Happy New Mo