SG Banks Big Rebound: How Do You Weigh Earnings Risks Against Valuations?
Singapore’s three major local banks have rebounded from multi-month lows. As of Wednesday’s close, the combined market capitalization of $DBS Group Holdings(D05.SI)$ , $ocbc bank(O39.SI)$ , and $UOB(U11.SI)$ has declined by approximately S$48.8 billion since April 2.
Downside earnings risks may drag the stocks down.
Despite the recent rebound, banks continue to face downside earnings risks, driven by narrowing net interest margins (NIM), slowing loan growth, and declining wealth management fees.
The latest March CPI figures indicate a notable decline in inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a 63% probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in June. A lower interest rate environment would further compress NIMs—an essential source of income for banks.
Among the three, only DBS has maintained relatively stable NIMs, while OCBC and UOB have seen a downward trend over the past two years.
With significant exposure to Asia’s trade-driven economies, Singapore’s local banks are vulnerable to the effects of a slowdown in regional loan growth, coupled with rising credit costs stemming from potential non-performing loans. Additionally, recent market volatility has weighed on the banks’ wealth management operations.
Valuations and Dividends Offer Potential Opportunity?
Despite the cautious outlook, low valuations and attractive dividend yields may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Singapore’s banking stocks are "starting to look more attractive to bargain hunters”, as their PE are at a relatively low level.
data from tiger trade and dividends.sg
Furthermore, the generous dividend payouts and active share buyback programs may help support share prices in the near term. Notably, DBS repurchased approximately 3 million shares between April 4 and 9, spending a total of S$119.17 million.
Low valuations + high dividend yield: Have you bottomed three banks?
Are you bullish or bearish on their earnings in 2025?
Will US big bank earnings provide guidance for SG banks?
Is DBS the best choice now?
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Singapore’s three major local banks have rebounded from multi-month lows. As of Wednesday’s close, the combined market capitalization of $DBS Group Holdings(D05.SI)$ , $ocbc bank(O39.SI)$ , and $UOB(U11.SI)$ has declined by approximately S$48.8 billion since April 2.
Despite the recent rebound, banks continue to face downside earnings risks, driven by narrowing net interest margins (NIM), slowing loan growth, and declining wealth management fees.
Among the three, only DBS has maintained relatively stable NIMs, while OCBC and UOB have seen a downward trend over the past two years.
Low valuations + high dividend yield: Have you bottomed three banks?
Are you bullish or bearish on their earnings in 2025?
Will US big bank earnings provide guidance for SG banks?
Is DBS the best choice now?
That said, valuations are starting to look attractive. PE ratios are low, and dividend yields are appealing—especially with DBS, which also stands out for its stable NIM and aggressive buybacks. Right now, DBS looks like the best pick to me, but if OCBC or UOB dip further, they could be worth a look.
I’m also tracking U.S. bank earnings for signs of what’s to come. If there’s weakness, it could impact local sentiment too. For now, I’m staying patient, holding cash, and watching for a better entry point.
$DBS Group Holdings(D05.SI)$ $ocbc bank(O39.SI)$ $UOB(U11.SI)$
@Tiger_SG @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
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DBS also pays dividends every 3 months. The current dividend yield is 5.60% which is much better than putting money in the savings account.
In the short term, there will be much volatility ahead due to the effect of the US tariffs. However with a long term horizon, the effect of compounding will reward me with capital growth.
Investing is a marathon, not a sprint.
@Tiger_SG @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
目前三大银行的股息率普遍在5%~6%区间，再叠加PB低于1倍，确实已经到了历史底部区域附近。从估值角度来看，我认为已经很接近底部，但是否见底，还得看盈利前景能否企稳。
从我个人观点来看，我对2025年的盈利持保守乐观态度。NIM下行压力肯定在，但只要经济不失控、信贷质量稳定，银行靠费用和资产管理仍能撑住局面。更关键的是，美国大银行即将发布的业绩可能给市场一个方向，如果它们盈利优于预期，新加坡银行也有机会“借东风”。
至于三大行中谁最有优势？我目前更偏向星展银行。它在数字化和区域扩张上的布局比另外两家领先一步，盈利能力和ROE也更具防守性。如果只能选一个，我会考虑星展作为优先配置。
Capital gain is much more important than dividend...
If you want the dividend, can consider to buy in 1 week before xd.