To The Moon

Safely Riding the Wave of Google’s Earnings.

AI Is Not Yet a Threat to Google Search

• According to a Citi survey, Google Search remains the core of most users' internet usage. In Q2, the U.S. search market share stayed at a healthy level of about 87%.

• Google’s core business use cases (e.g., shopping and travel) continue to grow, particularly among younger demographics.

• Current AI agents are primarily used for research-driven tasks, such as website translation, academic research, and travel planning, rather than shopping-related commercial activities.

What to Expect from Google’s Q2 Earnings

• Total Revenue: Predicted to be $93.7 billion, representing a 10.6% year-over-year growth.

• Search Business: Expected to grow 8.8%.

• YouTube Ad Revenue: Predicted to grow 10.0%.

• Google Cloud: OpenAI signed an agreement in May to lease Google Cloud’s computing power, which could drive significant revenue growth for the cloud segment.

Trading Strategy

• Earnings Volatility Expectation: 5.9%

• Stock Price Range: $174–196

• No Major Risks: Exclude the possibility of a significant drop before or after earnings.

Given the low risk of a large decline, selling put options is a viable strategy.

• Strategy: Sell put options before earnings and close the position at market open on the day of the earnings release.

• For those holding the stock, consider selling out-of-the-money call options to earn additional income.

Strike Price and Expiration Date Recommendations

1. Covered Call Strategy:

   • $GOOGL 20250725 200.0 CALL$  (86% probability of success)

2. Sell Put Strategy:

   • $GOOGL 20250725 172.5 PUT$  (84% probability of success)