To The Moon

2025 Q2 Earnings Expectations

• Tesla’s Q2 delivery numbers are projected to be 384,000 vehicles, up 14% quarter-over-quarter, far exceeding the earlier forecast of 2%.

• June sales were exceptionally strong, with monthly deliveries accounting for 47% of the entire quarter.

• The new U.S. tax law eliminating EV tax credits is set to take effect on September 30, potentially creating a Q3 pre-purchase rush.

• The new Model Y is expected to support sales growth in Q3 and Q4.

• A low-cost new vehicle may launch in Q4.

• Robotaxi operations have started, with fleet expansion expected to exceed 1,000 vehicles within the next 6–9 months.

How to Evaluate Tesla's Earnings Expectations

1. June’s sales surge may not be sustainable, and the stock price has likely already priced in the good news.

2. The anticipated pre-purchase rush could boost Q3 expectations, but it may also borrow demand from Q4.

3. Tesla's stock price rebounded 10.7% in July, meaning the positive outlook has already been factored in.

4. The company’s operations have entered a steady phase, and the likelihood of a sharp drop in the stock price is low, unless there’s a massive rally ahead of Wednesday.

5. If the earnings data meet expectations and Q3 guidance looks promising, the stock is likely to open higher but close lower.

Trading Strategy

• With no major bearish catalysts, consider selling put options.

• Sell put options before the earnings report and close the position at the opening on the earnings release day.

• For those holding Tesla stock, sell out-of-the-money call options to generate extra income.

Strike Price and Expiration Suggestions

1. Covered Call Writing Strategy:

   • $TSLA 20250725 370.0 CALL$  (91% win rate).

2. Put Selling Strategy:

   • $TSLA 20250725 295.0 PUT$  (91% win rate).

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$