[Stock Prediction] Alibaba Earnings: Rally or Selloff?
Alibaba reports Q1 FY2026 earnings on August 29 after the U.S. market close. Wall Street expects revenue of RMB 253.4B (+4.2% YoY) and adjusted EPS of RMB 15.82 (-3.8% YoY). Will AI-driven cloud growth spark a rally, or will massive local-commerce subsidies weigh on profits? $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$
🔍 Key Things to Watch
Alibaba Cloud revenue is expected to hit RMB 31.9B (+20% YoY), driven by rising AI demand. The company’s new Qwen3 model, AI-powered search tools, and broader product upgrades could keep Alibaba ahead of competitors.
Taotian Group (China commerce) is projected to deliver RMB 121.7B (+7.3% YoY), supported by better promotions and improved consumer demand. International commerce stays strong — RMB 34.8B (+19% YoY) — with AliExpress Choice, Lazada, and Trendyol pushing orders higher.
Flash sales are booming after a RMB 50B subsidy program, with 80M+ daily orders. But this aggressive spending is squeezing margins, and analysts are cautious about near-term profitability.
📊 Analyst Sentiment
Morgan Stanley: Price target cut to $150, citing heavy subsidy pressure on short-term earnings.
Benchmark: Buy, target $176; believes subsidies defend market share and bets on long-term AI+Cloud growth.
Mizuho: Neutral, target $149, warns margins could stay under pressure for several quarters.
Alibaba's earnings call will be held on 29 August 2025 at approximately at 19:30 SGT. To set a reminder, please click here
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⏰Event Duration
August 27, 2025-August 29, 2025, 16:00 (SGT)
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The RMB 50B subsidies are clearly driving huge order volume, but they’re also squeezing profits. I understand the need to defend market share, but investors may stay cautious until costs normalize. For me, the bigger focus is whether Taotian and international commerce can sustain steady growth.
Overall, this feels like a mixed quarter. Strong cloud numbers could offset weak margins, but if profitability disappoints, sentiment could turn quickly. I’ll be watching guidance on subsidies before adding more exposure, but I still see Alibaba as a longer-term AI+Cloud play rather than a short-term trade. $Alibaba(09988)$
@Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
1. Strong Rally
Alibaba's stock has surged 43% year-to-date, outperforming expectations.
2. AI Cloud Growth
The company's AI cloud business is surging, with aggressive investments in AI technology expected to drive long-term growth.
3. International E-commerce
Alibaba's international e-commerce segment is finally showing signs of profitability, contributing to the company's overall growth.
4. Stimulus Tailwinds
Government stimulus measures are boosting consumer spending, providing an additionaltailwind for Alibaba's business.
AI cloud growth is surging, international ECommerce is finally looking profitable. On top of that, stimulus tailwinds from the authorities are nudging increased consumer spending.
I believe that Alibaba will close between up around 5%.
It is time for Alibaba to shine 🌟🌟🌟😍😍😍
@Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
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