To The Moon

The idea of using Pfizer (PFE) as a hedge against a potential AI bubble pop is generally supported by its characteristics as a defensive stock in the healthcare/pharmaceutical sector.

Rationale for Pfizer as a Hedge

Defensive Sector: The demand for pharmaceutical products is considered inelastic because people need medication regardless of the economic climate. Unlike high-flying tech companies sensitive to economic downturns, drug sales and healthcare expenditures tend to be more resilient, offering a degree of insulation during a market crash.

Low Correlation: The pharmaceutical sector, especially large-cap companies like Pfizer, typically has a lower correlation to the highly volatile technology indices (like the NASDAQ 100). A sharp sell-off in AI/tech stocks may not equally impact the healthcare sector.

Dividend Income: Pfizer is a well-established company that pays a consistent dividend. During a market downturn, a reliable dividend can help cushion portfolio losses and provide steady returns, a desirable trait in a "safe haven" investment.

Fundamental Focus: While many AI stocks trade on future potential, Pfizer's value is tied to established drug sales (like Eliquis,

We can look at $Pfizer(PFE)$ upcoming earnings which is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, November 4, 2025.

Based on analyst forecasts and current market sentiment, here is an analysis of the upcoming earnings, key metrics to watch, and short-term trading considerations.

Pfizer (PFE) Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis

The general sentiment surrounding Pfizer's Q3 2025 earnings is cautious, largely due to the expected decline in its COVID-19-related revenues and the impact of recent acquisitions on costs.

Revenue: the consensus estimate came in at $16.6 billion which represent a -6.2% Year-over-Year (YoY) Change.

Adjusted EPS: the consensus estimate came in at $0.66 per share which represent a -37.7% Year-over-Year (YoY) Change.

Note: The Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimate has seen some recent downward revisions by analysts, which is generally a bearish sign ahead of the report.

Pfizer (PFE) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Pfizer delivered a strong performance in the second quarter of 2025, beating consensus expectations on both the top and bottom lines. This was driven by solid operational growth and effective cost management.

Key Business Highlights:

Non-COVID Growth: The company's non-COVID product portfolio, including recently launched and acquired products, was a key driver of the revenue increase.

Pipeline Advancement: Pfizer highlighted significant progress in its Research & Development (R&D) pipeline, especially in Oncology with assets like Elrexfio and the acquired Seagen pipeline, and in Vaccines with its second-generation C. difficile candidate.

Cost Management: Ongoing cost improvement and simplification initiatives, which leverage technologies like AI and automation, led to an 8% improvement in Adjusted operating expenses.

Lesson Learned from the Guidance

The most significant lesson learned from Pfizer's updated 2025 guidance is the critical importance of operational discipline and strategic diversification to manage risk and deliver consistent growth.

1. Confidence in Underlying Business & Strategic Execution

Raised EPS Guidance: Pfizer raised its full-year 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS guidance to a range of $2.90 to $3.10 (up from $2.80 to $3.00), even while reaffirming its full-year Revenue guidance of $61.0 to $64.0 billion.

The Lesson: The company demonstrated that its internal strategies—specifically cost improvement initiatives and operational efficiencies—are working better than anticipated. This operational discipline provides a degree of insulation from the volatility of revenue expectations (like those from COVID-related products) and major one-time charges, allowing the company to boost its profit forecast without needing to raise its sales forecast.

2. Absorbing External Headwinds

Navigating Challenges: The guidance was structured to absorb significant external impacts, including a one-time charge of approximately $0.20 per share related to the 3SBio licensing agreement, and the anticipated unfavorable impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) Medicare Part D Redesign on product pricing.

The Lesson: In the current regulatory and geopolitical environment, the ability to proactively bake in and offset major known headwinds (like policy changes or large licensing fees) is crucial for financial stability and investor confidence. Investors are reassured that the company is not only aware of these challenges but has a plan to counteract them through efficiency and diversified product growth.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch For Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings

Investors should focus on the performance of Pfizer's core business, as the market looks for signs of growth that can offset the steep drop in COVID-19 product sales.

1. Non-COVID Product Portfolio Growth

The Big Picture: The core driver for the stock will be the performance and momentum of the non-COVID-19 portfolio. Investors want to see sustained growth in these products to restore overall earnings growth.

Key Products to Watch:

• Vyndaqel/Vyndamax (cardiology)

• Eliquis (blood thinner, alliance revenue)

• Prevnar family of vaccines (pneumococcal)

• Padcev and Lorbrena (oncology products)

Headwinds: Sales of key products like Eliquis and Ibrance may be affected by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and higher manufacturer discounts, particularly in the U.S.

2. COVID-19 Franchise Sales (Comirnaty & Paxlovid)

The Setup: While a decline is expected, the magnitude of the decline and the guidance for future COVID-related revenues are critical.

What to Watch: The reported sales figures for the Comirnaty vaccine and the Paxlovid antiviral pill. Exceeding the (already reduced) expectations here could provide a positive surprise.

3. Updated Full-Year 2025 Guidance

Forward-Looking View: Revisions to the full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance will heavily influence the stock's short-term reaction. If the new guidance is better or worse than the current consensus, it will drive the market's response.

4. Pipeline and Acquisition Updates

Obesity Pipeline/Metsera: Investors will be keen for updates on the Metsera acquisition and any developments in the competitive obesity drug space, especially in light of the rivalry with Novo Nordisk.

Seagen Integration: Updates on the integration and performance of the acquired Seagen oncology portfolio will be important for long-term growth prospects.

Pfizer (PFE) Price Target

Based on 23 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Pfizer in the last 3 months. The average price target is $29.02 with a high forecast of $37.23 and a low forecast of $24.00. The average price target represents a 17.74% change from the last price of $24.65.

Opportunity for Trading Short-Term Post-Earnings?

Trading around earnings is inherently high-risk, but here are the factors to consider for PFE:

Significant Earnings/Revenue Beat

Impact on Stock Price (Short-Term): Strong Upside: The stock could surge, potentially exceeding the implied volatility move.

Trading Consideration: A large beat, driven by better-than-expected non-COVID sales or a less severe drop in COVID sales, could trigger a short-term long trade.

Miss or Weak Guidance

Impact on Stock Price (Short-Term): Sharp Downside: Given the downward revision of estimates and market caution, a miss or disappointing guidance could result in a significant sell-off.

Trading Consideration: A miss, especially coupled with a lowered full-year outlook, could present an opportunity for a short-term short trade.

In-Line Results

Impact on Stock Price (Short-Term): Moderate Volatility/Range-Bound: If the results are exactly in-line, the market will likely focus on the full-year guidance and the non-COVID portfolio performance.

Trading Consideration: Less clear direction; focus shifts entirely to the Q&A and commentary from management.

Historical Context: Pfizer has a history of beating earnings expectations in the past four quarters, which may offer a slight inclination toward a beat, but the market's current focus is on the long-term outlook and non-COVID growth.

Technical Indicator: The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) rating, suggesting a potential underperformance in the near term, according to their model.

For short-term trading, the greatest opportunity for volatility will come from a major surprise in the non-COVID product sales figures or a significant revision to the full-year guidance.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing a pretty significant decline before we see PFE trading sideways over the past weeks, though RSI momentum remain positive, but it is still trading below the short-term level (26-EMA, 50-EMA). The bulls are not in control, and the bears might stage a downside movement if the earnings were to come in as expected in decline.

So investors who are looking for defensive stocks to get into might want to consider PFE as the share price now seems to be reasonable.

Summary

Analysts are forecasting a year-over-year decline for Pfizer's fiscal Q3 2025 results.

• Consensus Estimates: The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.66 (a decline of about 38%) on revenues of approximately $16.6 billion (a decline of about 6%).

• Key Factors: Expected revenue growth from newer drugs like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax, Padcev, and the Prevnar vaccine family is anticipated to be offset by reduced COVID-19 product sales (Comirnaty and Paxlovid) compared to the year-ago period. The impact of higher manufacturer discounts under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is also a headwind.

• Other Notes: The quarter is expected to include a one-time acquired in-process R&D charge related to a licensing agreement. Pfizer recently announced a definitive agreement to acquire obesity drug developer Metsera, signaling a renewed focus on the lucrative obesity space.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), suggesting a potential market underperformance, despite a history of beating EPS estimates in the trailing four quarters.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think with Pfizer earnings expected to decline, would it make a good candidates for defensive against if AI bubble pop.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.