To The Moon

$SPY$
Key News:

• SPY has shown strong performance recently, logging its best Thanksgiving week since 2008, with seven consecutive months of gains.

• JPMorgan is bullish on the S&P 500, forecasting a 20% rise by 2027.

Options Analysis:

• Current Implied Volatility (IV) is neutral-to-high, indicating market expectations for moderate volatility. Overall sentiment is neutral-cautious, though institutional funds are positive on the longer-term trend.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected range: $680–695.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to $675–700.

• Key Support: $680 – the most concentrated "wall" of Put OI, forming the strongest support.

• Key Resistance: $690–695 – a dense Call OI zone, the primary overhead resistance area.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$SPY 20251219 675.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: The $675 strike is 4.2% below the current price, providing a sufficient margin of safety; Delta < 0.25 offers clear probability edge; strong support at $680 from heavy Put OI; collects premium while positioning for potential stock acquisition at lower levels.
Stop: Close if SPY breaks below $668 (2.8% below current price); limit max loss to 2x premium received.

$QQQ$
Key News:

• Divergence within the AI/semiconductor sector is intensifying; the broader market appears watchful.

• Options market is active, with total volume reaching 3.98M contracts. Put/Call Ratio of 1.03 indicates balanced long/short positioning.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at a neutral level, suggesting the market expects moderate, not extreme, price swings.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected range: $620–635.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to $615–640.

• Key Support: $620–625. $625 is a dense long/short trading zone; $620 sees heavy Put OI for protection, together forming strong support.

• Key Resistance: $635 – the recent technical high, a key overhead resistance level.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put (Delta < 0.25)
$QQQ 20251219 610.00 PUT$ 
Rationale: Lower strike provides greater safety margin; attractive IV premium.
Stop: Close if price breaks below $605 (0.8% below strike).
*Risk Note: The Fed decision could trigger a volatility spike; keep single-trade size below 5% of account capital.*

$IWM$
Key News:

• Goldman Sachs Asset Management analyst Greg Tuorto maintains a bullish view on small caps, believing they retain growth potential despite Fed policy uncertainty.

• Options market is active, with total volume of 1.41M contracts. Put/Call Ratio of 0.80 shows slightly higher put volume.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is neutral-to-low, indicating expectations for mild, not extreme, price movement.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected narrow range: $250–260.

• Next Week (Dec 26): Range may expand slightly to $248–262.

• Key Support: $250 – both a key psychological level and the most concentrated Put OI "line of defense."

• Key Resistance: $256–260. $256 is the recent technical high; the $255–256 zone has dense Call OI, together forming resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$IWM 20251226 240.0 PUT$ 
Rationale: Strike is 5.8% below the current price, with very low Delta for controlled risk; IV has retreated to normal range, suitable for collecting time value.
Stop: Close if price breaks below $245 (3.8% below current price).

$SLV$
Key News:

• SLV silver ETF holdings hit a record high since 2021, reaching 15,973 tonnes, up 17% year-to-date.

• Silver price broke above $61/oz, with YTD gains nearly double that of gold.

• Speculative funds continue flowing in; COMEX silver futures net long positions have increased for 12 consecutive weeks.

• Market view suggests a global shift from "inflation-fighting tightening" to "growth-supportive easing," with silver's industrial demand being revalued amid the new energy revolution.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at historically extreme highs, indicating expectations for sharp price swings. While bullish sentiment is strong, be wary of high volatility risk.

• This Week (Dec 12): Expected high-volatility range: $54–58.

• Next Week (Dec 19): Range may expand to $52–60.

• Key Support: $52–55. $55 is key support this week; $52 is the dense Put defense line for next week.

• Key Resistance: $58–60. $60 is a major psychological level and concentrated Call resistance zone.

Strategy Idea: Sell Put
$SLV 20251219 49.0 PUT$ 
Premium: $0.02, Delta < 0.2, OI: 3,144 (good liquidity)
Rationale: Strong silver fundamentals; $49 support is solid (12.6% below current price); high IV boosts premium income.
Stop: Close if price breaks below $51 (9% below current price).